Chicago Bulls: Can Lauri Markkanen become a top scorer?

After three years of disappointing output, it’s fair to ask whether Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen can become a viable offensive threat.

Here’s a revealing stat to ponder: In the three seasons since the Chicago Bulls traded him away, Jimmy Butler has tallied a 5.0 Box Plus/Minus (BPM). In that same period, the players the Bulls received in return for Butler — Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and Lauri Markkanen — have combined to post -0.2.

Of course, there are caveats to this data — namely that the latter three players suffered under former head coach Jim Boylen’s stewardship for most of that time — but it shines a glaring light on the downsides of dealing away a sure thing in the hopes that whatever you get back turns out to be better.

Worse yet, it seems like we have enough information on Chicago’s “foundational pieces” to know that at least two of them have probably hit their ceiling. We know that Dunn is a good-to-great defender who threatens a defense as much as a field mouse does a lion and we also know LaVine provides little value outside of his scoring.

Of the three, Markkanen remains the biggest question mark. The Finnish stretch big has shown flashes of top-level production in his first three years, but he has also frustrated many with his inconsistencies.

Much of the issue has lied with his 3-point shooting, which hasn’t been as advertised so far. Markkanen came out of the University of Arizona with high marks for his shooting, but despite possessing some of the smoothest mechanics in the sport, it has only produced a 35.6 3-point percentage in his brief career, slightly below league average.

In that respect, Markannen could benefit from having a decent point guard to play off of. Digging into the numbers, he made a higher rate of 3’s this year when receiving passes from Tomas Satoransky (42.7 percent) than any other Bulls player, which illustrates how something as simple as an accurate pass can affect a player’s performance.

Take these two plays against the Charlotte Hornets, for example. In the first video, Otto Porter Jr. gets double teamed in the post, leaving Markkanen open in the right corner, where he shot 40 percent from deep. Porter makes the right decision with the skip pass, but the toss sails a bit high, which forces Markkanen to reset after the catch. By the time he gets the shot off, Terry Rozier III has already recovered in time to somewhat bother the attempt.

Compare that to this pass from Satoransky. Yes, the possession ended in a missed shot, but unlike what we saw in the first clip, Satoransky delivers the ball right the Markkanen’s shooting pocket, meaning Markkanen doesn’t have to waste precious seconds readjusting prior to firing off the triple. It can mean the difference between a clean, comfortable look and getting forced into a tough shot.

That said, if Markkanen were the shooter that most people purport him to be, these sorts of semantics wouldn’t matter too much. Besides, merely focusing on his shooting leaves out the other parts of his game that have left people underwhelmed.

Starting in his rookie season, plenty of folks romanticized the idea of Markkanen getting switched onto a smaller defender and either bullying them on the block or firing over their heads. But his 0.68 points per possession (PPP) on post-ups this year proves that to be more fiction than reality.

They also frothed at the mouth over the possibility of Markannen handling his lead-footed contemporaries off the dribble. And, to be fair, he has shown flashes of brilliance in that regard.

We see it here when he’s matched up on Tristan Thompson.

Or here against Dwight Powell.

Or this play, where he gets a good screen from Wendell Carter Jr. that wipes out his man, Davis Bertans. He then charges through the open space and gets the and-one at Anzejs Pasecniks’ expense.

Here’s a similar play against the Atlanta Hawks.

The issue here isn’t so much the efficiency, but rather the usage. Markannen ranked in the 86th percentile with 1.00 pick and roll PPP — as the ball handler, not the screener — but only got 0.4 chances per game in those situations. He got even fewer in isolation (0.2 possessions per game).

Instead, the Chicago Bulls used him as a rim roller and a spot-up guy, which makes sense considering he was one of the few floor spacers they had — he ranked in the 87th percentile in BBall Index’s per game 3-point gravity metric (subscription required).

This isn’t to say the Chicago Bulls should use him primarily as a point forward — some of his success could wilt with more touches — but asking him to do little more than stand in an area and wait for someone to pass him the ball is just as wasteful.

So, what does all this film and data tell us? Was Markkanen bogged down by the personnel and scheme or is he simply not the player a lot of fans and analysts thought he would be? Given what we know, it’s a little bit of both.

With a new regime in place, though, Markkanen will have a chance to prove it was the former. He certainly has the skills to turn things around and with this coming season being a contract year, there’s no better time to fulfill some of that promise for the Chicago Bulls.