Los Angeles Lakers hoping lineup change will boost them to victory in Game 6

The Los Angeles Lakers are making a lineup change in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. They’re hoping that going small will boost them against the Miami Heat.

The Los Angeles Lakers are laying out all their cards on the table ahead of Game 6 in the NBA Finals. After the Miami Heat took Game 5 to extend the series, Stadium’s Shams Charania broke the news on Sunday afternoon that the Lakers will start guard Alex Caruso in place of center Dwight Howard as they look to close the series out.

This will inevitably bump Anthony Davis to the center spot, a role he prefers not to play, but it’s certainly the position that best serves the team’s chances to get a win. The Lakers have been phenomenal when they play without a center in the form of either Howard or JaVale McGee, blasting teams out of the water. When Davis plays center and Howard and McGee are off the floor, the Lakers have an offensive rating of 117.0 and a defensive rating of 101.7, yielding a net rating of +15.3 points per 100 possessions.

Of course, this is a full-season sample, meaning that home games against the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks and the worst teams in the league are in  this grouping of games, and the Miami Heat are absolutely not bottom-feeders. If we filter these stats for just playoff games, however, they still crush their opponents, yielding a net rating of +14.6. This is just a 531 possession sample, but compared to the season stats, it looks like a fairly reliable mark.

In the NBA Finals against the Heat, the Lakers haven’t gone small too often, but they’re obviously effective when they do. They have a +13.5 net rating in 133 possessions in the first five games of this series.

Going small can have a dramatic impact in a playoff series, especially against a roster that has been devastated by injury and attrition like the Heat have been in this series. The Los Angeles Lakers will go small, but the Heat have a seven-man rotation at this point and their adjustments in response will be minimal simply because they don’t have the personnel at their disposal.

Playing up a position may have a negative impact on Anthony Davis’s performance, however. He’s already battling a heel contusion that has hampered him all through the NBA Finals, and additional banging with Bam Adebayo in the paint and around the basket could be a complicating factor on how effective he can be. In spite of his injury status, he’s been phenomenal all series long, but he’ll need to bring more of that spectacular performance as more pressure is placed on his shoulders.

As this series goes on and the Heat refuse to die, life gets more complicated by the game for the Los Angeles Lakers. The decision by head coach Frank Vogel to go small in Game 6 may be an indication that they do indeed see this as a do-or-die game as the Lakers look to lock up their 17th NBA championship as a franchise.