NBA Finals: Key questions and predictions for Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat

NBA Finals Predictions:

No team is more familiar with LeBron James than the Miami Heat. The organization took him in when he was down, watched his lowest point sink further and provided the space to elevate the supreme talent into a two-time champion.

But the last of their relationship was six years ago. The essence of LeBron’s all-around game remains intact. How he goes about putting it to use has seen alterations. James thinks the game in ways he never did down in South Beach, more meticulous in movement and strategy that should be ready to counter whatever Spoelstra has prepared to stop him.

3-pointers accounted for 35.9 of the Heat’s offense during the regular season, a top-five mark that has only slightly dipped in the playoffs. They struggled from beyond the arc in their previous meetings with LA, shooting 6-of-35 and 10-of-33 in the two losses. but those numbers do require some context.

Butler, who shot 24.4 percent on threes during the regular season, heaved nine attempts and connected on none. He’s taking just 2.0 a game in these playoffs and hitting a respectable 36.7 percent of them. Kendrick Nunn was a combined 2-of-10 as Miami’s starting point guard. He’s since been taken out of the rotation with just 23 total minutes in the conference finals.

If the Lakers are to crack Miami’s zone, their shooters have to make the Heat pay for collapsing on their two superstars. They’re shooting 37.9 percent on catch-and-shoot triples in the postseason but were 3-of-19 on threes against Miami’s zone during the regular season. Danny Green (35.3 percent C&S) Kyle Kuzma (35.6) and Alex Caruso (26.3) can’t fail to capitalize on shots the Heat will happily concede.

Miami has to ensure it can dictate its own rotation, keeping the defensive damage LA does to Herro, Robinson and even Goran Dragic to a minimum. When it comes time to it, Butler has to perform the way stars do.

Picking against the Heat comes with the inherent risk of betting against the first five-seed in Finals’ history that’s already pulled off two upsets versus the east’s No. 1 and 3 seed. But the Lakers are likely to have the two best players in a series that demands star power over everything.

One of those players is LeBron James, vying to become the first player to lead three separate franchises to a title. He’s favored in these Finals for just the third time in 10 tries, pulling his fourth ring closer in sight. He’s also fairly well-rested, having crossed the 40-minute mark just twice so far in 15 playoff games.

Those factors are far more difficult to bet against, and they’re why the Lakers will match Boston’s 17 titles in a series likely to do the finality of this bubble experience right.

Prediction: Lakers in 7