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NBA Finals: Key questions and predictions for Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat

By Daniel Lubofsky

MIAMI, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 13: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers guards Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat during the second half at American Airlines Arena on December 13, 2019 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 13: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers guards Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat during the second half at American Airlines Arena on December 13, 2019 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

NBA Finals Question No. 1: Can LA play Miami’s shooters off the court?

No team used handoffs as part of their regular-season offense more frequently than the Miami Heat. Since the playoffs began, they’ve doubled down and increased their usage of such plays en route to the Finals thanks to the bevy of shooters they employ.

Five Heat rotation players are shooting above 35.0 percent from distance in these playoffs. Leading the way is the unlikely pairing of Duncan Robinson (40.0 percent) and Tyler Herro (37.8 percent), whose presence and movement create all sorts of chaos.

Neither would be considered poor defenders, complying nicely within Miami’s schemes, including when operating in a zone. But on a team that features Adebayo, Crowder, Iguodala and Jimmy Butler, Herro and Robinson fall a notch below and are therefore prime candidates to be targeted by LeBron James.

The Heat can counter James’ merciless hunts with their finely-tuned zone, though too much will give him the footage he needs to learn how to break it. Having LeBron’s defender simply fight through the screen is easier said than done when James exudes the necessary patience to run multiple picks to force the preferred matchup.

Herro broke out with 19.4 points per game during the conference finals, providing additionary ballhandling with shooting in all types of contexts. The Heat are 8.0 points per 100 possessions worse without Robinson so far in these playoffs per Cleaning The Class, having come to rely heavily on the gravity his presence draws without ever touching the ball.

The absence of either or both drastically shrinks Miami’s offense. Erik Spoelstra might ride them out to avoid those shortcomings and bank on the help and recover abilities of those around them. If the Lakers can properly exploit this weak spot by forcing switches and knocking down shots off helps and doubles, Miami will find itself compromising either way.

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