Los Angeles Lakers: 5 key questions entering the NBA Finals

“Death” Lineups

All season, it’s been theorized that the Los Angeles Lakers are at their best when they play Anthony Davis at center alongside LeBron James (we’ll call them “death” lineups for reference). The results bore this out in the regular season, as lineups with James and Davis (and no Javale McGee/Dwight Howard) posted a net rating of +13.78, significantly better than the Milwaukee Bucks’ No. 1 team rating of +9.40. These lineups have been even better in the playoffs (+14.31).

After not deploying death lineups for more than 17 minutes in any game all season, Los Angeles did so extensively in the five games against the Houston Rockets: 15, 20, 21, 26 and 22 minutes respectively. The Rockets were clearly a unique matchup, however, so it’s not surprising Frank Vogel scaled back these groups against Denver (8, 11, 15, 11 and three minutes). The question, however, is how much these groups should be utilized moving forward, and which players should accompany Davis and LeBron when they’re deployed?

The death lineups only saw three minutes in game five because Dwight Howard played a season-high 35 minutes (prior high of 30 minutes coincidentally also came against Denver in the February 12th overtime game). If Howard can continue being effective, perhaps the death lineups will be moderately utilized for a second consecutive series.

A lot of this will come down to how well he fares guarding Adebayo and whether he can have an interior impact against him on the offensive end. As discussed, Adebayo’s supreme athleticism makes it a tougher matchup for Howard than Jokic for example, which suggests his minutes (and that of Javale McGee’s as well) might have to be limited. If this is the case, the death lineups will have to be deployed more.

Against the Nuggets, Frank Vogel’s death lineup of choice was almost exclusively James-Davis-Rondo-Caruso-Kuzma, which posted a +3.8 rating in 24 minutes. No other lineup saw more than five minutes. During the regular season, Los Angeles’ most utilized and arguably most effective (non-Avery Bradley) death lineup was James-Davis-Green-KCP-Kuzma (+23.3 rating in 43 minutes). This group only saw three minutes against Denver and perhaps should be called upon more against Miami.

Some would argue the Lakers’ best death lineup is actually a group that saw two minutes vs. the Nuggets: James-Davis-Green-KCP-Caruso (+16.3 in 35 minutes in regular season). Markieff Morris saw a lot of these minutes against Houston, so he could be in the mix as well. Overall, unless Dwight Howard can be “Superman” again, Los Angeles will need to use its death lineups more against the Heat. They have plenty of options, and hopefully, Vogel isn’t afraid to use them.

Anthony Davis’ On/Off Splits

During the regular season, the Lakers were an elite team with LeBron on the court and Davis on the bench (+10.25 rating) but struggled with Davis on the court and LeBron resting (-2.40 rating). How the team fared with James on the bench was a valid concern heading into this postseason, but thus far, it hasn’t been an issue.

In the playoffs, Los Angeles is a +7.37 in 140 minutes with LeBron on the floor and Davis off and is actually a slightly better +7.55 in 154 minutes Davis on the floor and James resting. The credit goes to Davis, along with supporting players like Rajon Rondo that have stepped up as playmakers in LeBron’s absence. If the Los Angeles Lakers can stay afloat, or even win the minutes with James off the court, they’ll be very, very tough to beat.

(Credit to NBA.com and pbpstats for statistics and NBA and ESPN for GIFS)