Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson’s impact is taking a step back in the playoffs

Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson has been decreasingly impactful in the playoffs. His calling card is being challenged like never before.

The Venn diagram of people who knew of Duncan Robinson before this season and thought that his team, the Miami Heat, would approach an NBA Finals berth is a circle, most likely comprised of residents of south Florida. Hand in hand, Robinson and the Heat have ascended to heights virtually no one thought they could reach.

This season, the Heat built one of the league’s strongest 3-point shooting armadas, boasting a silver medal-winning 37.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc and tied-for-sixth-best 13.4 made triples per game. Robinson spearheaded Miami’s long-range attack with 44.6 percent shooting from deep and 3.7 triples per game, both of which were top-five marks across the league.

The Heat’s regular-season defense was mediocre overall but not bad enough to sink their playoff chances. However, once Miami reached the postseason, their script flipped: their defense, boasting the seventh-best defensive rating in the playoffs, is strong and their 3-point shooting is below-average, ranking 12th in the playoffs.

Sailing hasn’t been as smooth for Robinson as the tides turn on Miami’s shooting. He has put up a few good postseason performances but the Heat have been less reliant on him as the games become increasingly important.

During the regular season, Robinson shot 88.2 percent of his shots from behind the arc, an unheard-of mark that has crept upward to 88.8 percent during the playoffs. He’s still letting it fly at a sky-high rate but his frequency has diminished from 8.3 3-point attempts per game to 7.4.

There are two main factors behind this. First, Robinson is simply playing less, averaging three fewer minutes per game in the playoffs. Robinson played an average of 8.1 minutes in regular-season fourth quarters but averages just 4.7 minutes in the final period of postseason games.

Second, the windows to shoot are tightening up. Robinson doesn’t have as much room to let it fly. Defenders are tailing him as he flies around screens more closely and contesting his shots much more, often forcing him to pass out of a shot attempt in midair. His playoff shooting percentage from beyond the arc has declined by over 7.0 percent from the regular season.

Nearly the entirety of Robinson’s postseason per-game stat line – 11.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists per game on shooting splits of 42.2 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from deep and 78.3 percent from the free-throw line – is a reduction from his regular-season numbers. The only stat to increase is his free throw shooting, as his plebeian 0.9 made free throws on 1.0 free throw attempt are now 1.3 makes on 1.6 attempts.

Jae Crowder has surpassed Robinson as Miami’s chief 3-point chucker, attempting 8.4 triples per game in postseason play, a full shot more than Robinson. Although Crowder hasn’t surpassed Robinson’s overall deep range efficiency in the playoffs – shooting just 35.0 percent on those triples – his use within Miami’s offense is on the rise while Robinson’s use is trending the other way.

In Miami’s conference semi-finals matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Crowder converted 43.1 percent of his 10.2 3-point attempts per game. If each player’s stats from that series were shown without their names, most people would have guessed those numbers are Robinson’s. Yet, Miami’s 3-point extraordinaire shot a meager 35.3 percent from downtown in that series on 6.8 attempts per game.

Crowder’s once-hot shooting is now frigid in the Eastern Conference Finals, a theme that plagues the entire Heat roster. Only Tyler Herro, at 34.8 percent, is shooting above 30.0 percent from beyond the arc in the ongoing series against the Boston Celtics.

Robinson is shooting an even 30.0 percent while Crowder is shooting at 20.0 percent. They are each putting 4.0 triples per game, tying for third behind Herro and Goran Dragic, who both attempt 4.6 shots from behind the arc per game.

Although the impact of Robinson’s shot isn’t as strong now, the threat of his attempts still is. Robinson commands attention at all times. Defenders need to cling to him as he dashes around the court. All season long, Erik Spoelstra has taken advantage of Robinson’s quick, confident trigger that smoothly operates while moving in any direction.

Losing focus for just a split second is enough for Robinson to break the defense with a sharp, well-timed cut. All it takes is Jaylen Brown turning his head for Robinson to quickly relocate back to the corner and inflict the damage.

The Heat are always keeping Robinson moving on offense to utilize his lethal jumper to its fullest capacity. At this point in his short career, Robinson is a one-trick pony. But his trick is so spectacular that he’s been able to play the same hit over and over with rousing success throughout the season.

Playoff basketball doesn’t treat one-trick ponies too kindly, though. Robinson’s one-dimensional game is holding him back. He’s a smart passer and a decent defender, but it’s not enough to be a key difference-maker this deep in the postseason. Creating his own shot remains a foreign language to him.

Robinson’s shooting gives him a purpose in Miami’s offensive sets, but it hasn’t been enough for him to be a key factor in Miami’s playoff run. The Heat have a net rating of -0.3 when he’s on the floor according to NBA Stats, the second-worst on the team. During the regular season, Robinson’s 7.5 net rating was the highest of any of Miami’s regular rotation players.

Through the rest of Miami’s postseason run, Robinson will have to make do with the skills he has now. The ensuing offseason, however long it may be, will be imperative for how he benefits the Heat in future playoff series.

Golden State Warriors’ forward and three-time champion Draymond Green identifies two types of NBA players: 82-game players, who are mainly useful during the regular season, and 16-game players, who are built to perform in the playoffs. Robinson’s extraordinary shooting will allow him to be a dangerous player for 82 games, but his game isn’t currently equipped enough to be as dangerous in the postseason.