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Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura is poised for a big second year

By N.B. Lindberg

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 08: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards celebrates with Thomas Bryant #13 after scoring against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second half at Capital One Arena on November 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 08: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards celebrates with Thomas Bryant #13 after scoring against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second half at Capital One Arena on November 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Washington Wizards (Photo by Ashley Landis – Pool/Getty Images)
Washington Wizards (Photo by Ashley Landis – Pool/Getty Images) /

The numbers suggest a big breakthrough from 3-point range

For Rui Hachiura to reach his potential he will need to become a reliable threat from 3-point range. His rookie season was a disappointment in that regard as he connected on only 28.7 percent of his threes, which is 20 percent worse than the league average. However, there are some underlying numbers that Hachimura could see a big boost in his 3-point efficiency. The first is his free throw shooting.

NBA scouts are tasked, more than ever, with projecting the development of prospects’ 3-point shooting. NBA caliber players are usually so gifted that throughout their amateur careers they hardly need to shoot threes to absolutely dominate the opposition. A statistical proxy to determine if a player’s jump-shot will translate to behind the arc success is their free-throw shooting. So while Hachimura spent his rookie season throwing up bricks behind the arc his shot from the stripe was pure.

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Hachimura’s free-throw percentage was 82.9 percent, a mark that was 7 percent better than the league average. Only two players, who shot better than 80 percent from the line, had lower 3-point field goal percentages than Hachimura’s 28.7 percent. The vast majority of players who connect on an above-average number of free throws also hit an above-average number of threes. Hachimura could be a statistical outlier, in that he won’t be an above-average 3-point shooter, but it is unlikely that he’ll continue to be a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter.

Adding more evidence that Hachimura is poised for a breakthrough behind the arc is that he is actually a good shooter from distance. On shots classified as being 16 feet from the basket but within the 3-point line, he hit 42.9 percent of those shots. This usually correlates with success behind the arc and especially on corner threes, which are a full 18-inches closer to the basket. Hachimura only shot 31.8 percent from there and, based upon his current skill-level, would be expected to see that number increase. The likelihood of Hachimura seeing a real spike in his 3-point accuracy is large and could be a massive boost for the Wizards’ offense.

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