New York Knicks: How Tom Thibodeau would use Chris Paul

The New York Knicks are reportedly preparing initial trade offers for Chris Paul. Let’s take a look at how Tom Thibodeau would use him.

There is a perception around the league that the New York Knicks will pursue a Chris Paul trade this offseason. Jonathan Macri of Knicks Film School stated earlier this week that the team is preparing initial offers to send to Oklahoma City for Paul’s services.

But if New York is successful in their attempt to acquire Paul, how will they use him? The answer is Paul will likely be used as a floor spacer due to Tom Thibodeau’s offensive system. Thibodeau has a history of running a post-centric offense as his teams have routinely been in the top 10 in post-up possessions, averaging 17.5 per game since 2013.

The majority of those post up possessions go to the big men on his roster. For example, in 2017-18, Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 6.5 post-ups per game. That was 43.6 percent of the team’s total post-ups as they averaged 14.9 per game during that season.

More importantly, Thibodeau often puts another frontcourt player near the dunker spot on the other side of the court as the big man is posting up. It allows the frontcourt to be close enough to get in position for an offensive rebound as soon as the ball is released.

Unfortunately, the offensive alignment in Thibodeau’s system means that two defenders are near the rim for most of the game. Therefore, perimeter players have a harder time successfully attacking the basket as the defenders can easily rotate over to force the perimeter player to take a contested shot or pass.

The limited spacing has incentivized perimeter players to take more threes under Thibodeau. Jimmy Butler attempted 3.4 threes per game during the 2017-18 season, a 3.0 percent increase from the previous season.

Furthermore, threes accounted for 21.7 percent of his total field goal attempts, a 1.9 percent increase from the previous season. Butler wasn’t the only player who saw a rise in his threes under Thibodeau. Andrew Wiggins had the same experience.

Wiggins took 3.5 threes per game during the 2016-17 season, a 52.2 percent increase from the previous season. The threes accounted for 18.4 percent of his total field goal attempts, a 3.7 percent increase from the previous season.

Fortunately for New York, Paul has excelled as a shooter throughout his career, converting 37.0 percent of his threes on 3.7 attempts per game.

Although Paul would thrive as a shooter, the Knicks wouldn’t be getting the most out of him. Paul is at his best when he can combine his on and off the ball skills. Paul had a bounce-back campaign this season because he averaged 71.5 touches per game, a 1.7 percent increase from the previous season.

The 71.5 touches gave Paul more opportunities to generate offense as he averaged 8.1 pick and rolls per game. He shot 54.7 percent from the field on 5.9 shot attempts per game. Paul’s field goal percentage helped him amass 8.8 points per game out of the pick-and-roll.

Paul paired his on-ball success with excellent off the basketball work as he made 36.5 percent of his threes on 4.3 attempts per game. The threes and pick and rolls have accounted for 77.2 percent of his scoring output as he averaged 17.6 points per game.

Therefore, Paul would be better off going elsewhere as Thibodeau’s system would cause him to revert to his play with the Houston Rockets. Houston ran an isolation centric offense during the 2018-19 season leading the league in the category with 22.4 per game.

46.0 percent of those possessions belonged to James Harden as he averaged 10.3 per game. Harden’s on-ball activity played a vital role in Paul only touching the basketball 70.3 times per game, his lowest in the past eight seasons.

The 70.3 touches allowed Paul to average 5.9 pick and rolls per game, his lowest in the past five seasons. He shot 42.4 percent from the field on 4.2 shot attempts per game. Paul’s field goal percentage helped him amass 5.1 points per game out of the pick-and-roll, his lowest in the past five seasons.

Paul had to spend more time as a floor spacer as he took 6.1 threes per game, 49.3 percent of his total field goal attempts. He converted 35.8 percent of those attempts creating 6.6 points per game. The combination of these factors led Paul to average a career-low 15.6 points per game in his last year in Houston.

The decrease in production led to the creation of the narrative that Paul was rapidly declining. New York should see that narrative resurface if they acquire Paul because of how Thibodeau will likely use him.