Los Angeles Lakers: 5 keys to beating the Denver Nuggets

2. “LeBron/Anthony Davis at the 5” Lineups

The Lakers used both McGee and Howard sparingly against Houston, but both will likely see more minutes against Denver. The question, however, is how many more minutes they will see, and what lineups Vogel will use when Davis plays the five?

Prior to the Rockets series, the Lakers never played Davis at the five alongside LeBron for more than 17 minutes in any game all season (averaged ~9 minutes), which came in a Jan. 25 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Against the Rockets, this combination saw 20, 21, 26 and 22 minutes respectively in Games 2-5.

The Rockets were a unique matchup, but it will be difficult for Vogel to veer away from these “LeBron/AD at the five” lineups against Denver. They have a +15.7 net rating in 587 minutes this season, far exceeding the Milwaukee Bucks’ No. 1 team net rating of 9.4.

When the Lakers deploy these lineups, who will play alongside LeBron and Davis? During the regular season (excluding Avery Bradley lineups), the most popular choice was James-Davis-Green-KCP-Kuzma, which logged 43 minutes and posted a +23.3 net rating. The same lineup, but flipping Kuzma for Caruso, was heavily utilized and very effective as well.

When the Lakers went all-in on these lineups against Houston, however, the combinations looked a bit different. Green and Caldwell-Pope maintained their spots in the “fab five,” but rather than Kuzma or Caruso accompanying them, Markieff Morris slid into the fold. The James-Davis-Green-KCP-Morris lineup played a whopping 30 minutes against Houston, posting an impressive +54.9 net rating.

In Game 5, this group played 14 minutes and posted a +88.5 net rating. The 14 minutes was the most of any “LeBron/AD at the five” lineup in any game all season.

Vogel clearly liked what he saw from this five-man unit as the Rockets series went along. The lineup saw seven minutes in Game 3 (+21.4 net rating), nine in Game 4 (+29.4 net rating) and then 14 minutes in Game 5.

Morris provides defensive strength and versatility at 6’8″ along with capable 3-point shooting (9-of-18 vs. Houston). Both Green and Caldwell-Pope provide similar value and have been core pieces of the team all season. It’s therefore not surprising the Lakers have found so much success with this unit, and it will be interesting to see how much Vogel turns to it against Denver.

Rajon Rondo also saw an uptick in playing time in these “LeBron/Davis at the five” lineups, playing alongside Caruso, Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope. His impact was evident on both ends of the floor, and he has certainly earned a place in these units as well.

If Kuzma and Caruso shoot as well as they did against Houston (35.7 percent, 35.3 percent respectively), they can be valuable 3-and-D impact contributors to these lineups. Caruso in particular has been exceptional when paired with LeBron. Among 658 two-man lineup combinations that played at least 500 minutes together in the regular season, James & Caruso had the best net rating in the entire NBA at +18.6.

Overall, Frank Vogel might not pair LeBron with Davis at the five as much as he did against Houston, but he should be careful not to underutilize these lineups. McGee and Howard may very well have a role to play against Denver, but it’s possible the Lakers’ best road to success involves both seeing limited minutes again.