James Harden must reach back into his past to better his future

James Harden has risen to astronomical heights in the last few years, but bettering his title odds might mean returning to his ways of the past.

There are many ways to describe James Harden: Perennial All-Star. Superstar talent. MVP. One of the game’s most dynamic scoring threats. But the description that’s becoming more prevalent with each passing year is the one doing the most damage: predictable.

It’s a label that befalls the entire Houston Rockets team after another disappointing playoff exit, this time to the Los Angeles Lakers in a five-game series many believed could stretch farther.

Houston’s wholehearted embrace of analytics is commendable. Few teams are willing to go all-in on anything. But when you radiate a passionate unwillingness to shoot from a specific area on the court, defenses like LA’s know how to use it to their advantage, as they did against Austin Rivers in Game 4.

Harden’s complete analytical undertaking within Mike D’Antoni’s methodology speaks for itself. Three straight scoring titles and an MVP, the seemingly perfect pairing between player and coach. On paper, they make for a pretty great foundation to a championship contender.

If only playoff success were that simple. Instead, going deep in the postseason requires layers of adjustments and contingencies to counter all the ways defenses will try and slow you down, the type Harden fully moved away from.

We saw it first hand with the Milwaukee Bucks in their second-round defeat. Defenses are going to take away the strengths of opposing offenses. What counters lie deep in one’s bag to respond?

Over the last few years, Harden’s bag hasn’t gone very deep and the Rockets have suffered in part because of it. If this most recent elimination was enough to signal the end of D’Antoni’s Rockets tenure, the perfect opportunity may have arisen for Harden to reinvent his game once again. Only this time, his progression would function in reverse.

Harden’s game wasn’t always so difficult in its simplicity. Of course, his responsibilities were fundamentally different while with the OKC Thunder, where his place among a hierarchy that included Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook forced him to learn to play off the ball.

Even as a member of the Rockets, Harden’s shot selection was much more spread out in the four years before D’Antoni arrived. The same strength and elusive ballhandling he currently uses to bully his way to the rim or carve out space beyond the arc were also used to create 1,031 mid-range jumpers in his first four years in Houston.

The math indicates such shots are no good, and there is truth to that and the benefits cutting out those looks can provide. Harden shot just 37.9 percent on those shots. In the four years since, he’s cut down all the way to 387 mid-rangers, including just 20 this past season.

Hardly a coincidence that he’s not only had his gaudiest scoring averages since but also some of his most efficient seasons. The four years Harden has spent under D’Antoni rank among his top-five highest efficiency seasons on 2-pointers.

What Harden and the entire Rockets organization failed to realize in their obsessive pursuit of ideal efficiency, however, is the underlying value certain tactics bring.

Think of the offensively limited center who gets thrown a post touch every so often. The coach doesn’t draw up that play to get a bucket. But when your seven-footer is draining his energy jostling amongst the trees and getting hit every time he sets a screen, giving him an offensive look is how to best keep his investment in the game at the appropriate level.

Similarly, an elbow jumper might make Daryl Morey queasy, but a consistent diet of such looks keeps defenses honest upon lurking in that area. For Harden to take and make a shot that defenses willingly give up is to create a rare three-dimensional scoring weapon no scheme can truly slow down.

Harden revolutionized the step-back jumper and frustrates opposing teams to no end with his ability to draw fouls. He was once a pick-and-roll maestro, even under D’Antoni. Harden ranked inside the 92nd percentile back in 2016-17 with the third most possessions per game. He was in the 91st percentile the prior year.

He is one of this generation’s greatest offensive talents who caught himself too far into a movement that ignores the intangibles of basketball. Leveraging improvisational techniques and getting the best shot available. Three might be worth more than two, but two is still worth double the amount zero is.

This is a problem that belongs to the Rockets as a whole. Solving it has to begin at the top. It’s not the switch that will guarantee a title. At this important juncture in the Harden era, it’s Houston’s best bet to right the ship.