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The Washington Wizards and the history of the ninth pick

By N.B. Lindberg

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards looks on prior to playing against the Atlanta Hawks at Capital One Arena on March 06, 2020 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards looks on prior to playing against the Atlanta Hawks at Capital One Arena on March 06, 2020 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /
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Washington Wizards (Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images)
Washington Wizards (Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images) /

The In-betweeners (D.J. Augustin- 2008, Joel Przybilla- 2000)

Chances: 13.33 percent

Not everyone fits the star or scrub moniker and it’s these two. D.J. Augustin and Joel Przybilla are two players who have carved out long NBA careers. Przybilla was drafted in 2000 and produced a grand total of 23.0 Win Shares over the course of 13 NBA seasons. His career wasn’t sexy but finding a player that can be an elite rebounder for a decade isn’t a swing and miss.

D.J. Augustin, on the other hand, has quietly had a very impressive career. In 12 seasons he has racked up 44.8 Win Shares while playing for eight different franchises. Augustin is either a capable point guard or the league’s best backup. He’ll be 33 years old and a free agent soon, but he’s shown enough the last four years to continue his NBA career as he inches closer to 40.

If getting an All-Star with the ninth pick is a homerun then snagging a D.J. Augustin type is a double. The Washington Wizards would be pleased to grab a player of Augustin’s quality in this year’s draft. Especially if the past five drafts are any indication.

The Past Five Drafts (Rui Hachimura- 2019, Kevin Knox- 2018, Dennis Smith Jr.- 2017, Jakob Poltl- 2016, Frank Kaminsky- 2015)

The five most recent 9th overall picks have to put a damper on what the pick can offer. Rui Hachimura flashed offensive potential in his rookie season, but he has a long way to go to become a franchise-altering player. Kevin Knox and Dennis Smith Jr. have produced negative Win Shares and are both on the Knicks which is never a good sign. Jakob Poltl and Frank Kaminsky have established themselves as backup centers but don’t appear to offer much more beyond that.

The Win Shares per 48 minutes of the group is .056, which is almost identical to the .057 Colin Sexton produced this season. This group is still young and has either just entered, or are years away from their primes. The Wizards have to hope that they can buck recent draft trends and snag a player that’s more useful than Frank Kaminsky.

The NBA has a draft lottery, which is fitting because the draft itself is essentially a lottery. The ninth pick, over the past 20 years, has produced at least seven All-Stars and at least six scrubs. With the chances of ending up with nothing or something being almost equal, the Wizards have to like their chances of ending up with a player who can anchor their franchise beyond the days of John Wall and Bradley Beal.

Perhaps they already found that player in Rui Hachimura. Perhaps their 2020 pick will be the next Amar’e Stoudemire or, perhaps the next Patrick O’Bryant. The Wizards will hope to win two coin-flips in a row, but flipping a coin for an All-Star are odds that anyone would take. For, the history of the ninth pick is the history of the NBA draft — you never know what you’re going to get.

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