Milwaukee Bucks: How hot is Mike Budenholzer’s seat moving forward?

Following another disappointing playoff finish, questions regarding Mike Budenholzer’s job with the Milwaukee Bucks will inevitably grow louder.

A recent Coach of the Year coming off consecutive seasons with the best record in the league shouldn’t have questions raised about the security of his job. That’s the reality Mike Budenholzer is living in after his Milwaukee Bucks were officially eliminated from the 2020 playoffs after losing Game 5 to the Miami Heat.

The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that Budenholzer’s job does, in fact, remain safe at the moment. But who’s to say what the future holds with rising stakes and the extension offer to Giannis Antetokonmpo looming in the distance.

Milwaukee doesn’t get to this point, one of the league’s best teams and legitimate contenders in each of the last two seasons, without Budenholzer. A 44-win team turned into a 60-win juggernaut. A perennial All-Star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, blossomed into a (presumed) two-time MVP. All thanks to the five-out offense Budenholzer implemented upon arrival.

But the gameplan rigidly executed proved to be Bud’s undoing in each of the last two postseasons. Last year’s collapse could be chalked up to youthful inexperience against the eventual champions. The same can’t be said of this year’s second-round exit, where Budenholzer’s inability to deviate in any way put the Bucks at a disadvantage against a Miami team that can come at you from so many different areas.

At a time when coaches slash rotations to maximize top-level talent when it’s needed most, Budenholzer continued to spread out his minutes to unworthy recipients. Nine players averaged more than 10 minutes a night against Miami. Few teams in NBA history have the depth to justify such bold choices. The Bucks weren’t one of them.

Before going down with an ankle injury in Game 4, Antetokounmpo had played no more than 36 minutes in the previous three games, even as Milwaukee fell deeper into a series hole with each passing game.

Khris Middleton only saw 40+ minutes once his All-Star teammate was done for Game 4, a decision forced upon Budenholzer out of dire necessity than a willing change of pace.

On the other end of the Eastern Conference bracket, the desperation of falling behind 2-0 led Kyle Lowry to 46 minutes in Game 3 and 43 in Game 4, both wins for the Toronto Raptors. This, for a 34-year-old after playing 40 minutes in a Game 2 loss to the Boston Celtics.

Giannis was bound to struggle against a Heat team ideally built to wall him off from the drives his dominance is predicated off of. After shooting 59.8 percent on drives during the regular season and 70.4 percent in the first round against the Orlando Magic, Antetokoumpo’s efficiency dropped to just 55.0 percent versus Miami.

An interior force like the Greek Freak causes incredible panic for opposing defenses when near the basket. Cut off from his usual path, Budenholzer never went a different route to get him there. Giannis has just 17 post-ups in these entire playoffs, fewer than Danilo Gallinari and Al Horford in fewer games.

Milwaukee’s famous drop coverage resulted in the lowest restricted area field goal percentage during the regular season. That doesn’t make it the ideal mode of defense against every opponent.

No team ran more plays and took more shots out of cuts than Miami during the regular season. Combined with the second-highest 3-point percentage, the Heat possessed the perfect recipe to make Brook Lopez pay for hanging back in the paint and did throughout the five games.

Implementing adjustments is easier said than done when a coach like Bud has spent a long season enforcing otherwise. Athletes, after all, are prone to habit. But recent history has shown us it’s those bold modifications that result in a championship.

Down 2-1 to the Memphis Grizzlies in 2015, Steve Kerr switched center Andrew Bogut onto the offensively limited Tony Allen. The Golden State Warriors won three straight to escape that series. In those Finals, the insertion of Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup was the catalyst behind overcoming the Cleveland Cavaliers.

After the Heat split the first two games of the 2014 Finals, Gregg Popovic benched Tiago Splitter in favor of Boris Diaw. It’s no coincidence the San Antonio Spurs went on to win three straight in historic blowout fashion.

Playoff rigidity will be Budenholzer’s downfall

Think about the ways Erik Spoelstra utilized LeBron James en route to the 2013 title. At any point in time, James was Miami’s floor general or their low post presence. He guarded traditional forwards but also took on assignments like Tony Parker when called upon as he was in Game 7. He even screened plenty of point guards to force favorable switches.

In Antetokounmpo, Budenholzer has a player of similar limitless potential at both ends. A 6’11” ballhandler whose rim finishing compares to Shaquille O’Neal with the size and agility to serve as the rare 1-5 defender.

A five-out offense with your tallest player running the show is quite the card at Budenholzer’s disposal. The same goes for a defense whose backline can both protect the rim and defend in all types of space.

Milwaukee’s defense was slightly better in that time with an offense that generated an extra 2.8 points per 100 possessions compared to Giannis’ time at power forward — per Cleaning The Glass.

Too bad Bud never gave enough time to fine-tune it, just over 210 total minutes during the regular season. There’s no shame in milking what works as the Bucks did en route to the best record in the NBA. Contingencies, however, are of mass importance when having to beat a specific team four times in seven games.

Many coaches have been let go for the sake of change, only to be replaced by a hire who can’t maintain the foundation they’ve left behind. That works in Budenholzer’s favor.

Tyronn Lue might be the only worthy alternative as a championship-proven coach who’s found success with a multi-dimensional superstar. Ditto for Mike D’Antoni if his offensive ingenuity hits the market, although he might be taken if and when Milwaukee opts for a search.

Budenholzer’s fate could simply come down to the preference of his best player. The Brooklyn Nets just showed the power superstars wield when hiring a head coach. There’s little chance Giannis isn’t consulted, especially at a time when his potential free agency looms over every decision the franchise makes from here on out.

No matter what decision Milwaukee opts for, the impact is sure to ripple through the next several years. They just have to make sure those effects wind up in their best interest.