The New York Knicks must be cautious in potential Victor Oladipo trade

The New York Knicks must be cautious in any potential trade for Victor Oladipo. There are red flags for the All-Star guard.

Everything about Victor Oladipo‘s breakout season in 2017-18 suggests that Jonathan Macri‘s report about the New York Knicks being a potential trade partner for the All-Star guard makes total sense. New team president Leon Rose should move heaven and earth to get Oladipo to New York.

Oladipo played 75 games of exceptional basketball in 2017-18. He joined elite company when he averaged 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 3-pointers made in the same season. The only other players in NBA history to do this are Paul George, James Harden, and Stephen Curry.

Oladipo increased his field goal percentage to a career-high 47.7 percent despite averaging more shots than he ever has in his career (17.9). His 3-point percentage also jumped to a career-high 37.1 percent on a solid 5.8 attempts.

It doesn’t matter what metric you love. Oladipo crushed them all. He was first among shooting guards and ninth overall in RPM, 10th in VORP, and 12th in BPM.

The almighty Cleaning the Glass says Oladipo’s on/off differential was a staggering +14.4 points per 100 possessions — putting him in the 98th percentile for efficiency. The only players with a higher on/off differential were Nikola Jokic and Robert Covington (min. 1,000 minutes).

In his first season as the top guy, Oladipo led the Pacers to the playoffs and pushed LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers to a Game 7. He became the only player in Pacers franchise history to average 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 steals in a playoff series.

Oladipo was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player and named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team. The 25-year-old was indeed a rising star. Like Paul George before him, Oladipo was becoming a humongous fish in a small pond. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone too well for Oladipo since then.

A ruptured quad in Oladipo’s right knee kept him out of action for a year (January 2019 – January 2020), and he hasn’t been the same player since. Oldaipo’s numbers in 2018-19 were unremarkable before the injury, but it’s tough to evaluate that season at all. He hurt his knee for the first time in November and missed 11 games.

New York Knicks fans know the risks of knee injuries all too well. Carmelo Anthony had season-ending knee surgery in February 2015 — less than a year after signing a five-year maximum contract extension. Anthony was older then than Oladipo is now, but it’s still reason to be concerned. Melo’s production began to dip when he returned.

When Oladipo returned this season, he only appeared in 19 games following a one-year layoff. He didn’t play well — as is to be expected for a guy who hasn’t played basketball in a year, especially in these unusual circumstances.

You add to that the fact that Oladipo is an unrestricted free agent following the 2020-21 season and will almost certainly be looking for a big payday. It makes this an even tougher sell.

It’s easy to defend Victor Oladipo. It’s not easy to trade for him because you don’t know what you’re getting. You’re hoping that the Oladipo you get is the one who played those exceptional 75 games two seasons ago. But that’s just it. It’s 75 games.

If you take away those 75 games, Oladipo is not a player worth future assets. The averages of Oladipo’s other six seasons in the league are 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on a slash line of .430/.343/.792.

Oladipo has always stuffed the stat sheet, but you need to question if he’ll ever regain the scoring punch he had in 2017-18 — the only season he’s ever averaged 20 points per game.

Oladipo made 161 3-pointers that season, nearly 40 more than any other season of his career. He made 52.8 percent of his two-point shots that season, but he’s been sub-50 percent in every other season of his career. Oladipo shot 67 percent at the rim in 2017-18, but he’s never converted 60 percent in any other season, per CTG.

The cautious approach to this deal is just as much about what it would take to get Oladipo as it is Oladipo himself.

The New York Knicks might not have the assets for Donovan Mitchell, but they could pull off a deal for an unhappy Oladipo. A package centered on RJ Barrett or Mitchell Robinson may be able to get it done. Fresh off another Kristaps Porzingis knee injury, those Dallas Mavericks picks are burning a hole in Leon Rose’s pocket!

But just because you can make a trade doesn’t mean you should.

(I already mentioned Carmelo Anthony’s knee injury. So I won’t go into detail about the trade too. This is getting spooky.)

Trading for Oladipo means mortgaging your future (cool phrase) for a 28-year-old who’s only played 23 games since returning from major knee surgery. It’s a massive risk. With that said, the Knicks are in no position to dismiss any trade offer.

If Victor Oladipo goes to Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard and says, “I want to play for the Knicks,” then you try and get it done. Anything short of that, and the Knicks should be very wary of Indiana’s asking price.

But Victor Oladipo is a former Leon Rose client, and this is the New York Knicks. Stranger things have happened.