Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson’s sharpshooting could be kryptonite to the Bucks in NBA playoffs

The Milwaukee Bucks craft their defense around taking away the rim but allowing 3-pointers. The Miami Heat have the perfect weapon to take advantage.

The Milwaukee Bucks have revolutionized the way defense is played in the NBA. They take away the rim and force opponents to get the bulk of their offense from the mid-range and behind the 3-point line. They had the NBA’s best defense in the regular season, but surrendered a massive number of 3s along the way to the tune of 37.1 per 100 possessions. As it happens, their second-round matchup in the NBA playoffs, the Miami Heat, might be the best-crafted team to derail their quest to the Finals.

The Heat were just seventh in 3-point attempts, putting up just 35.4 per 100 possessions, but they were prolific in efficiency. They shot 37.9 percent from behind the arc, behind only the Utah Jazz and their 38.0 percent.

In the NBA, scheme matters, but personnel still gets the job done. For the Miami Heat, they’ve definitely got the personnel, and as Hassan Whiteside would say, they’ve got shooters.

The Heat have four players shooting over 40.0 percent from 3-point range, led by Duncan Robinson at 44.6 percent (on an incredible 8.3 attempts per game), Jae Crowder at 44.5 percent (since coming over at the trade deadline from the Memphis Grizzlies), Meyers Leonard at 41.4 percent and Kelly Olynyk at 40.6 percent.

Just outside this most elite of classes are Tyler Herro at 38.9 percent and Goran Dragic at 36.7 percent, and streaky scoring rookie Kendrick Nunn who can fill it up with a volume approach at 35.0 percent.

Heat shooters the best chance against the Bucks

The Miami Heat are significant underdogs to the Bucks in spite of the fact that they took two of their three matchups by 131-126 and 105-89 margins, with the Bucks’ lone victory coming in the NBA bubble on August 6th by a final score of 130-116. Per FiveThirtyEight, the Bucks are 63.0 to win their series, and when you’re a major underdog like the Heat are, you want to increase the variance as much as you can.

There’s no better modulator of variance in the NBA than the 3-pointer, especially when it comes in waves at a high volume, and the Miami Heat play and gameplan like they know it.

In their first three matchups, the Heat let it fly from long range, averaging 39.0 attempts from 3-point range. They made 43.3 percent, which is a high rate to be sure, but with the players they had dominating the scoring column, it almost seems sustainable.

In particular, Duncan Robinson was an absolute flamethrower. In their three regular season games, Robinson let loose from long range. He averaged 7.0 attempts per game and shot 52.4 percent.

Even though a three-game sample doesn’t seem indicative, it’s different with this University of Michigan product. The NBA’s bubble games are played in a shooter’s gym and shooting efficiency is up across the board. There’s absolutely no reason an automatic shooter like Robinson couldn’t shoot 50.0 percent or better for even an entire seven-game series, especially considering the vast number of 3-point opportunities he’s bound to get against the drop-coverage Milwaukee Bucks defense as they try to keep Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler from getting to the rim.

As a strategy, the Milwaukee Bucks have already picked their poison. We’ll see if they chose the right one as Duncan Robinson launches 3-pointers against them in the NBA playoffs.