The John Wall Doomsday Scenario
Wall’s last fully healthy season, 2016-17, was his finest campaign. He set career highs in points, assists, steals, win-shares, and Player Efficiency Rating en-route to a Third-Team All-NBA selection.
If used as Wall’s baseline level of performance his 2020-21 projected performance would be 1.96 win shares and .086 win shares per 48 in 39 games. Wall would go from being considered one of the 15 best players in the league to being basically Semi Ojeleye, who averaged 3.4 points a game.
Remember, these projections expect Wall to play a half-season but even if he plays a full 82 game season at 36 minutes a game he’s only producing 5.3 win shares at .086 win shares per 48. That’s much better but makes Wall a top 50 player, which is untenable for a player set to earn $40 million. As dark as it seems there is a glimmer of hope.