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Which John Wall will the Washington Wizards get?

By N.B. Lindberg

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 01: John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards reacts against the Brooklyn Nets during the first half at Capital One Arena on December 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 01: John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards reacts against the Brooklyn Nets during the first half at Capital One Arena on December 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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Washington Wizards, John Wall (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Washington Wizards, John Wall (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

The John Wall Doomsday Scenario

Wall’s last fully healthy season, 2016-17, was his finest campaign. He set career highs in points, assists, steals, win-shares, and Player Efficiency Rating en-route to a Third-Team All-NBA selection.

If used as Wall’s baseline level of performance his 2020-21 projected performance would be 1.96 win shares and .086 win shares per 48 in 39 games. Wall would go from being considered one of the 15 best players in the league to being basically Semi Ojeleye, who averaged 3.4 points a game.

Remember, these projections expect Wall to play a half-season but even if he plays a full 82 game season at 36 minutes a game he’s only producing 5.3 win shares at .086 win shares per 48. That’s much better but makes Wall a top 50 player, which is untenable for a player set to earn $40 million. As dark as it seems there is a glimmer of hope.

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