Dallas Mavericks: Why their clutch problems are no big deal after all

The Dallas Mavericks have one major Achilles heel: they struggle to win in the clutch. However, a closer look suggests this isn’t something to worry about.

The Dallas Mavericks are known for a few things this season. They’re known for the transcendent Luka Doncic, a barely-21-year-old who defies description. They are also known for having the most potent offense in the history of the NBA. And finally, they’re known for being unable to score in the clutch.

This last one has taken a toll on them. They’re 17-24 in the clutch, and losing all these close games is a big reason they found themselves in the seventh seed of the Western Conference rather than well up in the standings. Their 43-32 final record is a fair sight worse than their expected win-loss of 49-26. The latter record is the sixth-best in the NBA and looks a lot better on a resume, even if the Dallas Mavericks massively overachieved to get to where they are.

While we can’t erase the past and the Mavs are seeded where they’re at in large part because they couldn’t win close games, the future may operate free of the constraints that history tries to place upon it. That’s right, we may find their struggles in the past are not indicative of how they may perform in the future, and that’s largely due to the nature of clutch play.

According to the NBA’s definition, the clutch is five minutes or less left and a margin of five points or less. The clutch could be better defined as a high-leverage coin flip, where after 43 minutes two teams find themselves playing roughly 10 possessions each in order to decide a winner.

It’s a noisy format, but the better team usually wins that coin flip, unless there are outlying circumstances in play. For example, the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder were utterly dominant in the clutch during Russell Westbrook’s run. They were 26-16 in the clutch with a remarkable +22.6 net rating.

In 2017-18, with a better team thanks to the addition of Paul George, they were just 24-22 with a net rating of -2.2. In the former season, Russell Westbrook had a ridiculous usage rate of 59.8 percent and a personal net rating of +24.4. In the latter season, his usage was 42.0 percent and his own net rating was just -2.0.

Of course, these two teams were different, but their winning-time strategy was much the same in both cases: Give the ball to their best player, clear out and let him go to work.

After that, it’s a simple matter. The ball goes in, or it doesn’t.

For the Dallas Mavericks in the clutch, the ball does not. Or has not thus far.

In spite of their historic offense (which scores 115.9 points per 100 possessions, and the 2.6 point gap between them and second place is the same as the gap between the second-place LA Clippers and the 14th-place Philadelphia 76ers), their scoring wilts late in close games. They have an offensive rating of just 99.2, fifth-worst in the league behind the Detroit Pistons, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks.

It’s bad company to be in.

When we look at the Mavs’ poor clutch numbers, a few things stand out. First off, they’re one of the worst teams at coming from behind. As the trailing or tied team, they’re 6-24 with a -13.1 net rating. When ahead or tied, they’re 17-16, although their net rating is negative again at -8.1.

The Dallas Mavericks actually have a roughly average defense, giving up 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Where things clearly fall off the rails for them is when it comes to shooting 3-pointers. This season, the Mavs led the NBA in clutch 3-pointers per 100 possessions, taking 41.8 3s. This is just slightly ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers at 39.9, the Sacramento Kings at 38.8 and the Houston Rockets at 38.7. These teams are 20-10, 19-20 and 19-13 respectively in the clutch this season.

While the Lakers, Kings and Rockets all shoot somewhat worse than normal from 3 in the clutch than during regular play, nobody can match the decline of the Dallas Mavericks in the clutch. They shoot 36.7 percent from 3-point range in regular play but just 25.7 percent in the clutch. Only three teams shoot worse from long range.

Variance can be a killer in the NBA, especially in the highest leverage moments like late in close games. Fortunately, the Mavs have the perfect antidote to these issues, other than simply continuing to do what they do, safe in the knowledge that sometimes 3-pointers do indeed actually go in.

A philosophy in clutch play is that the most important thing is to get shots up and to avoid turnovers. Much like the Thunder of old would give the ball to Russell Westbrook and let him do what he does, that’s just what teams do with an elite one-man scoring machine. The Dallas Mavericks have just such a force in Luka Doncic.

Much like his teammates, Doncic guns away from 3 in the clutch as well, although he’s no sharpshooter. Instead, his strengths largely present themselves driving to the basket and creating scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.

This season, per Synergy, he’s in the 82nd percentile among scorers in isolation, scoring 1.019 points per possession. Even better, his teammates score 1.438 points per possession from his passes out of isolation.

In the pick-and-roll, he’s scoring at an even more illustrious rate at 1.036 points per possession, and he’s in the 89th percentile. His teammates are scoring 1.189 points per possession off his passes from the pick-and-roll.

This tells us that while the results haven’t been there, the process is sound. The Mavs simply need to keep doing what they do best when it matters most here in the NBA playoffs against the LA Clippers.