Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray’s mid-range offense in the modern NBA

Jamal Murray is the Denver Nuggets’ second-leading scorer, but the advanced statistics don’t exactly herald him as effective in today’s NBA.

When Denver Nuggets‘ guard Jamal Murray gets hot, he’s a microwave.

There’s no better way to describe a Murray-flurry, not unlike what the San Antonio Spurs experienced in the quarterfinals of last year’s NBA playoffs, helplessly watching Murray score 21 fourth-quarter points to overcome a 19-point second-half deficit and push Denver to a 114-105 win in Game 2.

Murray caught another heatwave Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers, beating defensive stalwart Danny Green three times in four minutes, cutting Denver’s five-point third-quarter deficit to one and causing Los Angeles to call a timeout and switch the matchup.

Murray’s firecracker moments stem largely from his mid-range jumper, as this is his most frequently-utilized weapon. He often shoots these in the pick-and-roll with Nikola Jokic, or when isolating his defender off the dribble, as his step-back isn’t necessarily deterred by taller defenders.

Murray shoots 47.2 percent from 10-to-16 feet, which seems decent at first glance, especially considering the difficulty of some attempts.

Yet, based on the 100-possession-per-game model, his mid-range game nets approximately 0.94 points per possession, which measures poorly against Denver’s average of 1.12 points per possession in 2019-20. While Murray is a potent scorer, his mid-range jumper is actually a significant downgrade over Denver’s average shot-quality.

It gets worse. The Golden State Warriors currently rank last in the NBA with just 1.04 points per possession. Murray’s mid-range jumper (which averages approximately 0.94 points per possession) puts the Nuggets on pace for a worse offense than the last-place Warriors…and by quite a significant margin. This renders Murray’s mid-range attempts extremely troublesome, as nothing is less effective than a league-worst mark.

However, the impact of Murray’s mid-range is better than the stats suggest, as Denver surely would’ve lost the aforementioned Game 2 to the Spurs without Murray’s fourth-quarter jumpers.

Murray also hit a late shot in Game 7 which proved to be the game-winner, an attempt which came from within the 10-to-16 foot range. Murray’s mid-range game actually saved the Nuggets from a first-round exit by essentially winning two contests…did it not?

Murray’s mid-range attack has implications beyond the numbers, and there’s always room for a Murray-like player in an NBA starting lineup. However, the question isn’t whether Jamal Murray’s been good (he has), but if the Denver Nuggets can seek better shots.

Meanwhile, insert Michael Porter Jr., one of Orlando’s biggest surprises, who’s averaging 23.8 points per game over the past six contests.

At 6’11”, Porter is long, fluid and athletic. His 3-point shot is among the team’s finest, and he possesses natural chemistry with Nikola Jokic, utilizing the All Star’s elite passing to convert easy buckets near the hoop.

Porter’s propensity for 3-pointers and dunks/layups is congruent with the modern NBA, as these shots best aid points-per-possession stats. His game has quickly paid dividends, as Porter’s effective field goal percentage is a blistering 64.8 percent in August, compared to Murray’s season mark of 51.6 percent.

This gap creates a significant points per possession opportunity found in Porter shooting more and Murray shooting less. Porter must continue in a similar fashion for a longer sample size, of course, but he’s already looking the part of an elite volume-efficiency combination found only in the Kevin Durant‘s of the league.

One factor is in Murray’s favor – he bulked up over the COVID-induced suspension, and appears eager to play closer to the basket in his few Orlando appearances. This will be something to watch for in the playoffs and early next season.

However, while Jokic and Porter fit well within the modern game, Murray’s fit is questionable, as his efficiency is inconsistent, especially factoring his reliance on the mid-range game.

While there’s obviously space for a scorer of Jamal Murray’s caliber, his spot will eventually be as the Denver Nuggets’ third scorer, as Porter possesses a natural efficiency knack that Murray does not. Look for Porter to soon jump Murray as Denver’s second scorer, perhaps as early as next season.