Why James Harden is the most dangerous weapon in the NBA’s bubble

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 05: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets steps back for a shot while defended by Patrick Beverley #21 of the LA Clippers in the first half at Toyota Center on March 05, 2020 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 05: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets steps back for a shot while defended by Patrick Beverley #21 of the LA Clippers in the first half at Toyota Center on March 05, 2020 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /
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Houston Rockets, James Harden
Houston Rockets, James Harden (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Back-to-backs

Workload magnifies over time. In the NBA, 38 minutes with 40 percent usage on opening night has a different impact than three months into the season on the second night of a back to back, with that usage throughout.

That is basically James Harden’s world, high-minute and high-usage, and even with Russell Westbrook in the fold, he plays a decisive role in how most possessions play out when he’s on the floor. On back-to-backs, in particular, even the best players lag in production.

Harden is no exception.

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Fortunately, there will be only one back-to-back for the Rockets in the bubble but no travel days. Encapsulated in the Disney universe, the grueling toll these things take over the course of a season will be a virtual non-factor.

On the seven second-game of a back to back (hereafter SEGABABA) the Rockets have played this season, he’s shooting 38.5 percent from the floor and 34.8 percent from 3-point range. His counting numbers are unsurprisingly respectable considering his sheer volume, but 31 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists are clearly inferior to his season averages of 34.4 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game.

From an efficiency perspective, he had a true shooting percentage of 54.3 and an effective field goal percentage of just 47.3 on SEGABA. These are below his season marks of 61.6 percent and 53.3 percent respectively.