Los Angeles Lakers: Frank Vogel’s secret lineup tweak

The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled with LeBron James off the floor this season. Could an under the radar lineup adjustment provide the solution?

Although the Los Angeles Lakers have thrived with a variety of lineups this season, it’s not hard to find a purple and gold fan that thinks Anthony Davis should be playing more at center. The general argument tends to be this: the Lakers are at their best with these lineups, and if not during the regular season, Davis should play much more at the five come playoff time.

JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard have both been valuable contributors, but the numbers suggest the team is indeed at its best with just the one big (Davis) on the floor (per pbpstats).

Despite the success, only 38.4 percent of Davis’s minutes have come without McGee or Howard sharing the court. Only 29.8 percent of Davis’s shared minutes with LeBron James have come without another big.

Should Lakers fans expect anything to change moving forward? Some recent comments from head coach Frank Vogel suggest that answer is perhaps no. However, it’s worth examining some of the final games before the March 11 suspension for additional insight. Some changes may have already begun.

Frank Vogel’s “Secret” Lineup Tweak

The Lakers back-to-back matchups against the Milwaukee Bucks and LA Clippers had higher stakes and intensity than the average regular-season game. If a lineup tweak was to come in the playoffs, one would imagine these games would provide a glimpse of it (for reference, each of LeBron, Davis, Howard and McGee were available).

Against Milwaukee, however, Frank Vogel only deployed seven minutes with a LeBron/Davis frontcourt and only 12 total with Davis at the five (below the 7.5 and 13.1 season averages). These lineups had success but their utilization was limited.

The Clippers game helps reveal a different story, however. There were nine minutes with James and AD down low and most notably, 22 total with Davis at center (no McGee/Howard).

65 percent of Davis’s minutes came at the five against the Clippers, the second-highest rate of any game this season. The highest rate actually came in the Lakers’ next and last game before the suspension (68 percent against the Brooklyn Nets). This was partially due to Howard missing the game, but could it still be reflective of a larger lineup trend that sees more minutes at center for Davis?

Against the Clippers, Vogel was fine pairing Davis with another big when LeBron was on the court. When James rested, however, Davis played almost exclusively at center for 13 of those 14 minutes. The Lakers were successful in these minutes, outscoring the Clippers with almost every lineup combination.

This approach was present in the Milwaukee game as well. Davis may have seen limited time at center, but all five of the minutes he played without LeBron came at the five. The final game against Brooklyn? Nine of 11 minutes.

It’s not as if it’s been this way all season either. With LeBron off the court, only 58.2 percent of Davis’s minutes have come without McGee or Howard. If one digs into the numbers, it appears that Frank Vogel decided to adjust over the All-Star Break.

As the below chart shows, Davis’s share of non-LeBron minutes at center has risen steadily since the break. The one exception, Feb. 27 against the Golden State Warriors, was a game LeBron missed.

There hasn’t been a similar increase in minutes at center for Davis with LeBron on the floor, suggesting Vogel’s focus has been on adjusting lineups without the King. The somewhat subtle nature of the adjustment seems to have kept it under the radar to some degree (only 43 percent of Davis’s minutes have come without LeBron).

The Rationale

Vogel’s lineup tweak makes sense from a numbers perspective. LA has been elite with LeBron on the floor and Davis off this season with an 11.3 net rating, but there have been some struggles with LeBron off and Davis on with a -2.75 rating.

By playing Davis more at the five, Vogel is likely trying to find a way to improve these non-LeBron minutes. Interestingly, the issue has been more defense than offense. On the whole, LA has offensive and defensive net ratings of 112.6 and 105.5 (+7.1) respectively. Without LeBron, the Davis lineups have recorded 110.1 and 112.9 (-2.75). Note the significant defensive drop-off.

Per net rating, pairing Davis and Howard has provided the best solution, but one can’t blame Vogel for fully exploring Davis at center. Surrounding the All-Star with the spacing provided by four shooters would seemingly be helpful from an offensive perspective. Defensively, having an elite shot-blocker in Davis closer to the rim sounds like a good idea.

Has this lineup shift produced better results? It was successful against the Clippers for instance, but it’s difficult to draw broader conclusions yet. Vogel has stuck with the strategy, however, something that suggests at least some level of success.

Overall, it’s unclear if the Lakers have truly improved their performance with LeBron off the court, but the team seems to hope playing Davis more at center will provide the solution. It will be interesting to see if the Vogel’s lineup tweak carries over into Orlando.

Death Lineups

AD’s time at center has been increasingly coming with LeBron off the floor. Vogel still chooses to deploy death lineups (groups with Davis at the five that include LeBron) on occasion, and these units could be more utilized moving forward. When these lineups are called upon, who should be the three players alongside Davis and James? Of the five most-used death lineups this season, three included Avery Bradley. With him now out of the picture, the dynamic changes.

Among the four non-Bradley death lineups that have seen at least twenty minutes this season, only two have had poor-to-limited success (note Rajon Rondo’s presence in both). Even if Rondo hadn’t gotten injured, his presence in such lineups should probably have been limited.

That the other two lineups have had a ton of success, albeit on a limited sample size, won’t come as a surprise to most Lakers supporters. Alongside LeBron and Davis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green are strong fits due to their shooting (39.4 and 37.8 percent from deep, respectively) and defensive abilities.

In terms of the fifth and final spot, both Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso bring different things to the table. The Los Angeles fanbase will undoubtedly side with Caruso, and the numbers fully back this up.

Using the same 3-point shooting and defensive criteria, Caruso has Kuzma beat 35.5 to 29.7 percent (although Kuzma has 129 more attempts). Defensively, the eye-test favors Caruso, and with the second-best defensive net rating on the roster, the analytics do as well.

Want some more Caruso love? He’s tied with LeBron for the best net rating on the roster at +10.3. Among 691 two-man lineups across the NBA that have logged at least 450 minutes, no combo has faired better than LeBron-Caruso (2nd: Giannis Antetokounmpo-Eric Bledsoe).

Although he’s only played eight games with the team thus far, Markieff Morris could make a case for some death lineup minutes as well. He provides size and versatility at 6’8″ and was 39.7 percent from three in 44 games with the Detroit Pistons.

Conclusions

-How much time Anthony Davis should see at center will continue to be a subject of debate. If/when the Lakers face some adversity, these questions may intensify.

-In what is likely an effort to improve performance with LeBron off the floor, Frank Vogel has gone with more “Davis at center” lineups since the All-Star Break.

-The Lakers’ ultimate death lineup is probably LeBron-Davis-Green-KCP-Caruso.

(Credit to NBA.com and pbpstats.com for statistics and ESPN and House of Highlights for GIFS)