Denver Nuggets: Buy or sell on the 34-foot, four-inch-tall starting lineup?
By Dean Hasan
Do they have enough offensive firepower?
On paper, five big men sounds like it would make for abysmal spacing, but based on the stats from this season, it might just work. Thus far, Millsap has shot 44.0 percent from deep on 2.5 attempts per game, and Grant made 40.0 percent of his threes on 3.4 attempts per contest. While we can’t say how each might fare on increased volume, their current performances from range should be sufficient to keep defenders from sagging on the perimeter.
Moreover, despite converting on just 31.4 percent of his threes this year, Jokic is comfortable operating the offense from the elbow, and he has drained 44.7 percent of his mid-range looks, giving defenders a good reason to play up on him when he’s outside the paint.
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While the sample size is small, during his nine games with Oregon, Bol shot 52.0 percent on 2.8 3-point attempts per game and knocked down 75.7 percent of his 4.1 free throws per game, which bodes well in terms of his shot translating to the NBA. Although he converted just two of his eight threes against the Wizards, in eight G-League games, Bol made four of his 11 3-point attempts and converted on all of six of his free throw attempts, which makes for positive, albeit inconclusive evidence that his jump shot can be effective for Denver.
Finally, while Plumlee lacks outside shooting, he’s a solid rebounder and passer, and he works well in this lineup as a lob threat and tertiary option when a drive to the hoop is cut off, and no kick out for three is available.
If everyone maintained their current shooting percentages on increased volume, then this lineup is an offensive must-buy. As-is, the starting lineup that faced the Wizards should outrebound most every lineup, the pick-and-roll with Jokic plus any other player projects to be difficult to stop, and off-ball cuts will continue to be devastating with the Joker at the helm of the offense.
Assuming that volume can’t be increased without sacrificing shooting percentages, this lineup has a glaring weakness in terms of night-in, night-out scoring options. Jokic is one the league’s best at putting the ball in the basket, and even then, he averages just 20.2 points per game. He’s capable of scoring in bunches but is equally prone to having nights where he does the opposite.
In 11 of his 65 games this year, he recorded less than 10 field goal attempts, and he has as many sub-10-point games (eight) as he’s had 30+ point nights. However, the Joker does contribute positively in other ways even when he doesn’t score, and the Nuggets are 6-2 when he records less than 10 points.
Granted, this scoring dilemma isn’t a problem exclusive to this lineup, but rather to Denver as a whole. With this specific lineup, however, the lack of Murray and Barton, who average 18.8 and 15.1 points per game respectively, is exacerbated. Moreover, in nearly every game that Jokic recorded a low point total, it was these two who picked up the slack, leaving some cause for concern with a lineup that features neither.
If we care deeply about maintaining height but want to add some scoring, the Nuggets could sub in the 6’10” Michael Porter Jr. for either of Grant or Millsap and add two or three more inches respectively, or sub out Plumlee, an option that sacrifices an inch. Either choice should allow for more individual shot-creation outside of Jokic and additional perimeter shooting. Even still, while Porter Jr. has shown flashes of elite scoring prowess, we haven’t seen enough from him to be certain that he can do so consistently.