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The Sixers will go as far in the playoffs as Joel Embiid carries them

By Duncan Smith

PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 24: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers gestures after scoring a three-point basket for his career high 49th point during the second half of an NBA basketball game against of the Atlanta Hawks at Wells Fargo Center on February 24, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Sixers defeated the Hawks 129-112. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 24: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers gestures after scoring a three-point basket for his career high 49th point during the second half of an NBA basketball game against of the Atlanta Hawks at Wells Fargo Center on February 24, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Sixers defeated the Hawks 129-112. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Joel Embiid is a defensive game-changer for the Philadelphia 76ers

In a world where Giannis Antetokounmpo’s mere existence is an unfair defensive advantage, it’s almost a shame to have to measure Embiid against him. Considering the fact that Giannis is a favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year and Embiid is likely not, we may judge him a bit too harshly for that.

The best way to measure his actual impact, however, is to examine how hard he makes life for opposing offenses when he’s on the floor.

Using Cleaning The Glass‘s on/off stats (subscription required), we get an incredible picture of what Embiid provides. In the NBA, deterrence is often the best defense, preventing the shot from going up in the first place, and around the rim nobody is better than Joel Embiid. When he’s on the floor, opponents shoot at the rim an incredible 8.2 percent less often, simply choosing to avoid the highest-value scoring spot on the floor.

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This places him in the 100th percentile, a league of his own. In lieu of shooting at the basket, teams deviate to the mid-range, the long-mid range in particular. Teams shoot 3.9 percent more of their attempts from the long-mid range when he’s on the floor than off it, a mark that’s good for the 1st percentile. This is one of those times you want to be the 1st percentile.

Overall, opponents shoot 5.3 percent more often from the mid-range, a 2nd percentile mark.

When they DO have the nerve to shoot around the rim, things go badly for opponents of the Philadelphia 76ers. Opposing scorers are shooting a 4.0 percent worse effective field goal percentage, and they’re 4.5 percent worse at the rim.

Even in the short-mid range, opponents are shooting 4.7 percent worse. This could be some noise and randomness as the further from the basket we get, a center has less defensive impact, but it’s hard to not give Embiid’s existence SOME credit for this at least.