Hoops Habit
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4 reasons the Miami Heat could make the NBA Finals

By John Jablonka

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - MARCH 06: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat, Bam Adebayo #13 and Duncan Robinson #55 react against the New Orleans Pelicans during a game at the Smoothie King Center on March 06, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - MARCH 06: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat, Bam Adebayo #13 and Duncan Robinson #55 react against the New Orleans Pelicans during a game at the Smoothie King Center on March 06, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /
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Miami Heat (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Miami Heat (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

League-best shooting team

The Miami Heat got shooters. Not only do they have plenty of shooters, but they are also great shooters. That man just above is arguably the best shooter this season and by a good margin. As a team, they are shooting 38.3 percent from deep, which is tied-best and is 2.6 percent better than league average. Their true-shooting percentage also tied-best at 58.7 percent is 2.3 better than average.

Efficiency is great, but it’s even better when that’s combined with production, and the Heat have that too. Per 100 possessions, the Heat are fourth in 3-pointers made with 13.4 and seventh in 3-point rate with 41.3 percent.

3-point shooting is great, especially in this age, but a team’s offense also needs another way to get easy points. Free throws are another efficient way of getting easy points; there is a reason why it’s called free. The team’s free throw rate, which is the amount free throws attempted per field goal attempt is league-best 29.8 percent. You combine that with average efficiency and now the Heat are fourth in free throws made.

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One of the main reasons for such success from deep is Duncan Robinson. Who would have thought that this undrafted guy who played only 15 games last season and shot 28.6 percent from deep would be having a historic season? That’s right, historic.

Do you know how many players made at least 3.5 3-pointers and attempted at least 8 in NBA History?

Eight.

But if we add efficiency to this, there is only one player. Combined with production, only Stephen Curry has a more efficient season than Robinson. That’s quite an accomplishment considering Curry is regarded as the greatest shooter of all time.

Robinson is shooting 44.8 percent from 3-point range and has an effective field goal percentage of 66.5 percent, all to go with a true shooting percentage of 67.8 percent.

This season for Robinson is even better than Curry’s first MVP season. And if we want to look at true shooting percentage instead then Robinson is first (though that is only by 0.3 percent). He is having a historic season and is only getting better.

Robinson is not the only deadly shooter on the team.

  • Tyler Herro – 2.1/5.4, 39.1 percent (3.4 relative to league average)
  • Kelly Olynyk – 1.4/3.1, 43.2 percent (7.5)
  • Meyers Leonard – 1.0/2.4, 42.9 percent (7.2)
  • Goran Dragic – 2.2/5.8. 37.7 percent (2.0)
  • Jae Crowder – 2.7/6.8, 39.3 percent (3.6)
  • Kendrick Nunn – 2.1/5.8, 36.2 percent (0.5)

All those players listed are shooting above the league average and there is shooting at each position.

Furthermore, here are some random 3-point shooting stats about the Heat:

  • 47 games when they shot average or above (37-10)
  • 18 games when they shot below average (4-14)
  • 55 games with 10 or more 3-pointers
  • 34-of-81, 41.9 percent versus the Milwaukee Bucks
  • 27-of-75, 36.0 percent versus the Toronto Raptors
  • 44-of-115, 38.2 percent versus the Philadelphia 76ers
  • 23-of-75, 30.6 percent versus the Boston Celtics
  • 32-of-76, 42.1 percent versus the Indiana Pacers

What this shows is when the Heat get hot, they can beat anyone, even the best of the best. Even though it is a small sample, the Heat shoot at a high level versus the top-5 teams in the East apart from the Celtics.

It is fair to say that this is their deadliest weapon and if some players get hot, any series will be tough for the opponent.

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