Why the NBA’s Orlando return bubble may be about to burst

With the eyes of the wider sports world fixed on the NBA, the league’s bubble is about to burst, in more ways than one.

What seems like years ago, on March 11th, 2020, the NBA suspended its season indefinitely due to the (still ongoing) coronavirus pandemic. Despite the sudden nature of this announcement, hopes were always high on the prospect of an NBA return. However, with each hour on March 12th, more sports leagues following the NBA’s example, and soon the country partially shutting down due to a continued increase in cases, prospects were dimming by the day.

Just one week after the NBA suspended its season, 10 players or team personnel had confirmed that they’d contracted COVID-19. The league got over that wave, as more and more players announced that they’d gotten healthy, but the virus can leave a devastating impact on a person’s body, as Steven Adams talked about this past week when he said he was still having trouble smelling almost three months after his diagnosis.

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Then, on June 4th, the National Basketball Player’s Association (NBPA) approved the league’s plans for a season return, and it seemed, that the “bubble” plan was set into action.

Now though, about a month after the original announcement, the plan seems much less solid than it originally did. Many question the safety and the methods that the NBA is going to use.

The biggest problem with the “bubble” plan is that the league hasn’t seemed to be able to nail down exactly what the plan is. At first, it was said that the players would be quarantined in the bubble and that they wouldn’t be able to leave or have guests. Soon after though, Adam Silver announced that players could be joined by three family members.

Following that, on June 26th, Yahoo! Sports said in a tweet from senior NBA writer Vincent Goodwill that NBA players, “…will be free to leave the bubble, as opposed to being prevented.”

This had many questioning the NBA’s plans and left some wondering if this was going to be a bubble at all. Along with that, Adam Silver said in a Time 100 interview with Sean Gregory that he would start the NBA season in the bubble, but was planning on coming and going as he needed. Again, many were right to point out that this compromised the idea of the bubble.

Now, to give the league credit where it is due, Silver has also said that they are, “…Never full steam ahead no matter what…And if there was something to change that was outside of the scope of what we’re planning for, certainly, we would revisit our plans.”

One of those things that the NBA has not planned for would be a widespread of the coronavirus, to which Silver said that if there was a big enough outbreak the NBA would suspend the season again, but also said that a specific number has not been set.

But just because the NBA is going to do its best with testing and quarantining infected players doesn’t mean the return plan is safe. Tests are only somewhat effective within the first week, so there’s a chance that players could be asymptomatic and still spreading the virus. Along with that, there has already been a large number of players who have tested positive.

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As of Friday afternoon, 25 of the 351 tested players returned positive results, a rate of 7.1 percent. Of the over 800 staff tested, 10 have tested positive.

For the Denver Nuggets, they shut down their practice facility due to an outbreak of the virus. At least four members of the Nuggets had contracted the virus, one of which being Nikola Jokic. Head Coach Michael Malone also confirmed he had tested positive.

Other teams to have confirmed shutting down their facilities due to positive tests include the Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers and the Brooklyn Nets.

The final players we know who contracted the virus are DeAndre Jordan and Spencer Dinwiddie of the Nets. Among all of the players and personnel listed, only Jordan announced publicly that he would not join his team in Orlando, and Dinwiddie remains questionable because he was symptomatic.

Many players have said they still planned on going with the team to Florida in spite of testing positive.

Tim MacMahon, and NBA writer for ESPN, confirmed on Twitter earlier this week that NBA Coaches Association President Rick Carlisle said that, when it comes to coaches, “No one will be red-flagged by the league for going to Orlando based on age alone.” This left some, once again, to question the league’s policy.

According to the CDC, the rate of people (per 100,000 people) hospitalized between 65 and 74 is 198, compared to just 13 to ages 50-64. When the age is between 75-84, that number rises to 329, and if the person is above 84, the number rises again to 513. The following is a list of participating NBA coaches above 55:

• Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni, 69
• Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry, 65
• Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, 71
• Blazers coach Terry Stotts, 62
• Mavs coach Rick Carlisle, 60

With all of these forces acting against the NBA’s restart, it’s more imperative than ever that the league reconsider their return plan. The league’s bubble is about to burst, and in more ways than one. In the first way, the bubble is already compromised, and the games haven’t even begun. However, there’s arguably a bigger concern for the league.

The second way that the league’s bubble is about to burst is in regards to other sports leagues. Ever since the NBA suspended their season the sports world’s eyes have been fixed on how the NBA handles this unprecedented situation. The league can’t exist in its own world anymore. Whatever the NBA does now, whatever decision they make, it will likely influence the wider sports landscape, and whatever happens, in part, will fall on their shoulders.