While the NBA attempts to wrap up the 2019-20 season, the Atlanta Hawks must determine whether John Collins is a part of their future, and at what price.
John Collins has far exceeded the expectations that preceded him when he was taken by the Atlanta Hawks with the 19th pick in the 2017 Draft.
Production has seen a yearly increase across the board, up to 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game in 2019-20. He was the only player to surpass those numbers this season, including a continuously developing 3-point shot at 40.1 percent on 3.6 attempts per game.
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Trae Young is the face of Atlanta’s rebuild, but Collins remains a factor behind their bright future. The Hawks have a chance to show their young forward how much weight that holds given his extension eligibility this summer.
If only they knew for themselves, creating a dilemma heading their way whenever free agency officially commences.
What Collins does, he does at a high level. Exclusive numbers aside, his 3-point percentage would rank ninth among all forwards — he doesn’t have the minutes to officially qualify for the leaderboard. He takes the 12th-most looks inside the restricted area per game but finishes at a better rate than the 11 ahead of him.
He and Trae Young have combined to form a lethal two-man combo, pushing the former to lead the NBA in points per game as the roll man, where he generates a lethal 1.31 points per possession.
Though not a go-to stopper, Collins has made tremendous progress at the defensive end after an ugly sophomore season. His career-high 1.6 blocks per game were tied for 11th-best in the league. Impressive, considering a below-average 6’11” wingspan on a 6’10” frame.
Opponents’ offensive rating dips 2.3 points when he’s on the court, holding individual matchups to roughly identical percentages compared to when guarded by someone else. His uber-athletic abilities make for an intriguing switchable piece defensively, even if he still has a ways to go in that area.
For all these reasons and plenty more, the Hawks should want to re-sign John Collins. Not many soon-to-be 23-year-olds rapidly evolve the way he has into an All-Star caliber player.
That progression has fostered Collins’ belief in his merit as a max player, but is he worth as much to a Hawks team seemingly constructing their roster in a different direction?
Collins’ inside prowess can be enhanced at the center position, which Atlanta unleashed across nearly half of his minutes this season. The move was strategic given the absence of a center worth giving minutes to. It’s an underwhelming rotation from Damian Jones to Alex Len to Dewayne Dedmon to Bruno Fernando.
Such is no longer the case after the Hawks acquired Clint Capela at the trade deadline. Though he wasn’t always used that way in his latter years with the Houston Rockets, Capela remains a premier roll man who rebounds and protects the basket.
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Atlanta wouldn’t have acquired the lanky big man if not to fill a cavernous hole in one of the league’s worst defenses, leaving only so many minutes for Collins at the position that further promotes his versatility.
Collins’ defensive strides are commendable, but does the rookie duo of Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter offer more of the lanky and switchable potential the Hawks need to minimize Young’s shortcomings at that end?
Even with all those concerns, what this potential showdown will boil down to is the dollar amount. Collins believes he’s earned a max extension. Atlanta is reportedly hesitant to throw such money his way (subscription required). The situation isn’t aided by the ongoing uncertainty of the 2019-20 season and beyond, which could leave a sizeable dent in projected cap figures.
The Atlanta Hawks do have one leg up in negotiations. Even if Collins is hell-bent on a max deal, would he really be willing to enter restricted free agency in 2021 amid the unknown waters of the league’s finances?
Then again, if Collins were to reach restricted free agency, the Hawks run the risk of an opposing offer sheet forcing them to pick between an overpay and losing their star forward for nothing.
Atlanta is left with no definitive answer at the moment because of all the factors that remain up in the air. The time will come, however, to weigh the value of Collins’ contributions now and moving forward given the Hawks’ new additions as well as how much that would cost.
It’s not the worst problem for an NBA team to have. But for a lowly Atlanta Hawks franchise looking to soon trend upward, their future outlook might depend on it.