Atlanta Hawks: The John Collins problem awaiting this offseason

While the NBA attempts to wrap up the 2019-20 season, the Atlanta Hawks must determine whether John Collins is a part of their future, and at what price.

John Collins has far exceeded the expectations that preceded him when he was taken by the Atlanta Hawks with the 19th pick in the 2017 Draft.

Production has seen a yearly increase across the board, up to 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game in 2019-20. He was the only player to surpass those numbers this season, including a continuously developing 3-point shot at 40.1 percent on 3.6 attempts per game.

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Trae Young is the face of Atlanta’s rebuild, but Collins remains a factor behind their bright future. The Hawks have a chance to show their young forward how much weight that holds given his extension eligibility this summer.

If only they knew for themselves, creating a dilemma heading their way whenever free agency officially commences.

What Collins does, he does at a high level. Exclusive numbers aside, his 3-point percentage would rank ninth among all forwards — he doesn’t have the minutes to officially qualify for the leaderboard. He takes the 12th-most looks inside the restricted area per game but finishes at a better rate than the 11 ahead of him.

He and Trae Young have combined to form a lethal two-man combo, pushing the former to lead the NBA in points per game as the roll man, where he generates a lethal 1.31 points per possession.

Though not a go-to stopper, Collins has made tremendous progress at the defensive end after an ugly sophomore season. His career-high 1.6 blocks per game were tied for 11th-best in the league. Impressive, considering a below-average 6’11” wingspan on a 6’10” frame.

Opponents’ offensive rating dips 2.3 points when he’s on the court, holding individual matchups to roughly identical percentages compared to when guarded by someone else. His uber-athletic abilities make for an intriguing switchable piece defensively, even if he still has a ways to go in that area.

For all these reasons and plenty more, the Hawks should want to re-sign John Collins. Not many soon-to-be 23-year-olds rapidly evolve the way he has into an All-Star caliber player.

That progression has fostered Collins’ belief in his merit as a max player, but is he worth as much to a Hawks team seemingly constructing their roster in a different direction?

Collins’ inside prowess can be enhanced at the center position, which Atlanta unleashed across nearly half of his minutes this season. The move was strategic given the absence of a center worth giving minutes to. It’s an underwhelming rotation from Damian Jones to Alex Len to Dewayne Dedmon to Bruno Fernando.

Such is no longer the case after the Hawks acquired Clint Capela at the trade deadline. Though he wasn’t always used that way in his latter years with the Houston Rockets, Capela remains a premier roll man who rebounds and protects the basket.