Denver Nuggets: Ranking potential first-round opponents

Houston Rockets:

Denver’s matchup desirability: 4th

Regular Season Record: 3-1

Projected Probability to win series: Houston 55/45

Nikola Jokic vs. team: 22.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists per game

Jamal Murray vs. team (2 games): 11.0 points, 7.5 assists per game

Biggest Problem Players: James Harden, Russell Westbrook

This was a close call between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks, as both are bad matchups for Denver, but ultimately James Harden tips the scales, as no higher-seeded squad wants to face him in the first round.

Owner of a 34.4 points per game average, Harden leads the league in scoring by a significant margin. He’s a master at the step-back 3, getting to the rack, and yes, playing 8-on-5 ball with the officials’ help. Russell Westbrook (27.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game) joins Harden to create the league’s best backcourt, one that would inevitably hurt Denver in a seven-game series.

Houston perhaps self-sabotaged with their “small-ball” experiment, trading center Clint Capela and employing a speedy, smooth-shooting lineup in which every player is 6’7” or shorter. The squad started out 7-2 after the trade, but then hit a losing streak to break at 8-6, so the jury is still out on the effectiveness of this method. The spread-out style and ability to draw the switch will be rough for Denver’s bigs, however.

While Houston’s offense is tricky to contain, Denver does have a significant size advantage. Nikola Jokic would be a man among boys and may average a 40-point triple-double on the series. He would control the offense via both scoring and facilitating, and Houston would have no answer. Paul Millsap would also accumulate post buckets, as he’d likely draw a 6’4” or 6’5” defender. Denver did post a 3-1 record against Houston, but one of these wins came with Harden sidelined.

Ultimately, this would be a series in which neither defense could contain the other’s offense, a.k.a head coach Mike Malone’s worst nightmare. Houston, on the other hand intentionally plays this style, so give them a slight edge.