How a “group stage” playoff structure could work for the NBA

As the NBA continues to consider potential solutions to resume its 2019-20 season, we’ll take a look at what a “group stage” structure might look like.

According to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, there is some support within the league office for the NBA to implement a “group stage” format to replace the first round of the NBA playoffs upon a return to play. The style would be similar to how the World Cup in soccer operates.

O’Connor mentions that in this format, the 20 NBA teams with the best records would be placed into four groups of five teams. I will get into how those groups could be formed later on.

"“Teams would play two games against each opponent in their own group, and the teams with the two best records from each group would qualify for the second round of the playoffs. Eight teams would advance, and then teams would play seven-game series to determine the champion” (Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer)."

Similar to the FIFA World Cup, two teams from each group would advance to the next round. However, instead of each team playing one game against opponents in their respective groups, the NBA would allow each team to play their opponents twice, equaling eight games per team.

It makes sense to have every team involved play at least eight games since anything less may not be worth the logistical effort for the teams that don’t end up advancing. It wouldn’t be ideal for some teams to go through training camp and more weeks of quarantine in a ‘bubble’ site, which will likely be Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, just to play around four games.

Besides, the more games the better for the league. A group stage structure with a total of 80 games played amongst the better NBA teams would skyrocket ratings, viewership, excitement, television revenue, and global interest.

Each game would be intense with the world’s best basketball players competing at the highest level. In addition, games could be going on right after another every day for about two-to-three weeks. I wouldn’t complain about that.

O’Connor would go on to explain the specific teams involved and how the league could fairly balance the groupings in terms of competitiveness.

"“The 16 current playoff teams would qualify for the group stage, plus the four teams with the next-best records (Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, and Spurs). The remaining 10 teams would be done for the season. The survey sent to each general manager noted that “tiers” would first be created using the regular-season standings to ensure competitive balance between the groups”."

The groups could be decided by a televised lottery, meaning teams from each tier would be randomly drawn into four different groups. However, I don’t believe that’s fair to the higher-tier teams since it wouldn’t be enough of a reward to their success in the regular season.

When placing each team in one of five tiers based on their regular-season records and assessing a fair format to place them in groupings, these are the results of each group that I came up with.

Group A

• Milwaukee Bucks
• Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Orlando Magic
• Portland Trail Blazers

Group B

• Los Angeles Lakers
• Utah Jazz
• Houston Rockets
• Brooklyn Nets
• New Orleans Pelicans

Group C

• Toronto Raptors
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers
• Memphis Grizzlies
• Sacramento Kings

Group D

• LA Clippers
• Boston Celtics
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Dallas Mavericks
• San Antonio Spurs

Tiers one through five are in order starting from the top to bottom in each group. I took each tier and developed what I thought was a fair pattern to determine the groupings.

Let’s examine the pattern of Group A more closely:

Bucks (first in Tier 1)

Heat (last in Tier 2)

Thunder (first in Tier 3)

Magic (last in Tier 4)

Trail Blazers (first in Tier 5)

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The pattern follows as first-last-first-last-first based on where they are placed (due to regular-season record) in each of their respective tiers.

If there happens to be a tie between multiple teams in a group once the standings are finalized, then the tiebreaker would go to the team that had the better regular-season record.

After the group stage and eight teams have advanced to the second round of the playoffs, the NBA could reseed the eight teams that are left or continue to follow the style of the World Cup.

For example, the second round matchups could look something like this in a bracket:

• Group A Winner vs. Group C Runner-Up
• Group D Winner vs. Group B Runner-Up
• Group B Winner vs. Group D Runner-Up
• Group C Winner vs. Group A Runner-Up

Either way, the NBA should go back to the traditional seven-game series once the group stage is finished.

It could become both an intriguing group stage idea and a complicated one, but the league seems to be discussing different format scenarios for a group stage structure and other formatted ideas to present to the NBPA.

The sports world is eager to find out how Adam Silver and the NBA will resume its 2019-20 season amid the coronavirus pandemic. As momentum grows of a return, it appears that a “group stage” playoff structure has emerged as one of the realistic possibilities.