Denver Nuggets: Strategy to defeat Milwaukee Bucks in potential NBA Finals matchup

In this hypothetical playoff bracket, the Denver Nuggets can use this strategy to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks in an NBA Finals meeting.

After walking through a hypothetical playoff bracket where only the Denver Nuggets are capable of pulling an upset, the NBA Finals will see them paired with the Milwaukee Bucks. Before the season’s delay, the Bucks led the Eastern Conference with a record of 53 wins and 12 losses.

The Bucks are one of my favorite teams, however, I think the Nuggets would have a better chance of beating them in a seven-game series than they would have had in their Western Conference Semifinals and Western Conference Finals matchups against the LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers.

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The general strategy to beat the Bucks is pretty obvious: Shut down Giannis Antetokounmpo. The former league MVP is clearly the engine that fuels the entire team, surrounded by talented shooters. That of course, is much easier said than done.

A look at last year’s Eastern Conference Finals can provide some insight into the most effective way of stopping him. In the 2018-19 season, Giannis averaged 27.7 points per game on a scorching 57.8 percent shooting clip. Yet in that series against the Toronto Raptors, he only averaged 22.7 points per game and shot 44.8 percent from the floor. Did Raptors coach Nick Nurse know a secret that nobody else in the Eastern Conference knew?

Well, somewhat. He was fortunate to have Kawhi Leonard at his disposable, an elite on-ball defender with more strength and quickness than Giannis, and hardly giving up much size. Additionally, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam served as secondary defenders with enough strength, size and lateral quickness to hold their own against Giannis.

With that said, there are two effective ways of guarding Giannis that I can think of. The first is to have somebody of comparable size and quickness guarding him tightly. The key that most teams miss is guarding him tightly. The NBA can see that Giannis is not a shooting threat off the dribble and is hardly one off the catch, so they lag way off him, daring him to shoot. Guarding him this way allows him to get a head of steam towards the rim, and by the time a defender gets in front of him he has enough momentum to go through or around them.

The alternative method is to have somebody significantly stronger than him, even if slower, guard him on the perimeter. Examples of this can be seen when the Boston Celtics put Al Horford on him, or at times when Marc Gasol covered him for the Raptors.

Fortunately for coach Mike Malone, I can see either option being feasible. The first method is preferred as it relies on quickness and strength to keep Giannis at bay rather than expecting pure strength and physicality to make him uncomfortable, but he has options.

If he uses his most common starting lineup, option two could work with Paul Millsap guarding Giannis. The only caveat is that Giannis will probably be able to get past Millsap quite a few times. The hope is that Millsaps strength tires Giannis throughout the game, plus playoff basketball is a little more physical anyways.

If coach Malone spruces the lineup, he can replace Millsap with Jerami Grant. This would be a matchup described in the first option, as Grant has plenty of length, strength, and an abundance of quickness both laterally and vertically. This combination allows him to pick up Giannis away from the basket, thus eliminating his head of steam.

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In either defensive scheme, it’s important to stay home on all 3-point shooters. I think specifically for the Bucks secondary star, Khris Middleton, Torrey Craig or Will Barton could essentially faceguard him. Middleton is a solid ballhandler and is capable of creating his own shot off the dribble, but he really relies more on shooting directly off the catch. Having somebody attached to his hip will make him work much harder to get his shots off.

The rest of the team is pretty straightforward to guard. Seeing that the Bucks are essentially comprised of a few playmakers in Eric Bledsoe and Giannis surrounded by a plethora of shooters in Middleton, Kyle Korver, George Hill, etc., it is important to prevent as many wide-open easy 3’s as possible. Fortunately, with Giannis being guarded tighter on the perimeter and with Middleton being face-guarded, there should be less penetration and less need for help defense. This alone should keep the shooters contained.

Offensively speaking, there aren’t really any new wrinkles here in comparison to the other rounds up to this point. The Bucks have a lot of depth defensively, but I don’t see the Nuggets struggling to score in the slightest if they flow through Nikola Jokic. I think it makes too much sense to have the offense not only run through him but actually be initiated by him.

Instead of having Jamal Murray or Gary Harris be the primary ballhandlers with Eric Bledsoe or Wesley Matthews guarding them, Jokic should bring the ball up the court with Brook Lopez guarding him. I don’t think Lopez is a horrible defender, but Eric Bledsoe is one of the toughest on ball defenders at his position, and Matthews is solid as well. Plus having Jokic on the perimeter more will pull Lopez away from the basket, which is huge since he’s averaging 2.4 blocks per game this season.

The same strategy applies even if Giannis was covering Jokic. In fact, whoever is being guarded by those two should spend a lot of time on the perimeter since Giannis and Lopez clog up the lane so effectively.

If the Nuggets were able to reach the NBA Finals and adhere to this strategy, I am thoroughly confident that they would top the Bucks and secure their first NBA championship in franchise history.