While we’ll never know the official answer, data and trends can give us an idea of what Michael Jordan may have done as a 3-point shooter in today’s NBA.
Chicago Bulls legend Michael Jordan has been firmly in the spotlight throughout our quarantined lives due to the early release of The Last Dance. Danny Ainge, one of Jordan’s frequent opponents in the 90s, recently spoke about Jordan and how he would have been able to translate to the modern era.
Ainge thinks Jordan would have done just fine, and thinks that had he been in this era, he would have done quite well, particularly as a shooter.
Speaking to Zach Lowe of the Lowe Post podcast, Ainge said:
"“Even though Michael wasn’t a 3-point shooter in his day, if Michael grew up in the game today, I think we can all acknowledge that he was a great shooter and he would have been one of the best 3-point shooters in the game,” Danny Ainge said on The Lowe Post podcast"
Let’s investigate. What do the numbers say about Michael Jordan’s shooting ability, and what can we learn from them about how he would have been able to adjust to a 3-point-heavy league?
When it comes to shooting, a big part of it is getting in a groove. Because of that, I decided to consider his career, removing seasons where he attempted fewer than 1.5 3-pointers per game.
That leaves us with these seasons:
- 1989-90
- 1992-93
- 1994-95
- 1995-96
- 1996-97
- 1997-98
I decided it would make sense to remove the 1994-95 season where Jordan attempted just 32 3-pointers and played in 17 games.
That leaves us with five seasons. Those five seasons considered, Jordan went 425-of-1,158 from beyond the arc, good for 36.7 percent from the 3-point line.
In 2019-20, the NBA’s league average for 3-point shots is 35.7 percent. Since 2014-15 it’s been as high as 36.2 percent in any given season.
It can be a bit misleading to apply shooting efficiencies from one era to another where the guiding principles are vastly different. Offenses today take a higher volume of threes and defenses guard the perimeter more staunchly.
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In fact, even McHale himself pointed to the fact that they just didn’t know how to handle some of Jordan’s explosive shooting when he went off against the Blazers when speaking to Lowe.
Jordan was getting open looks beyond the arc and taking them, and there was a question as to whether or not the defense should really be expanding out that far, potentially leaving themselves open to pump-fakes and Jordan drives if they committed to closeouts.
What we do know, though, is that there is a general positive correlation between an increased amount of 3-point attempts and Jordan’s 3-point accuracy. For every 50 3-pointers Jordan attempted throughout his career, he generally increased his 3-point percentage by about five percent, per a linear trend line.
So, does that mean if Jordan attempted 450-plus threes like CJ McCollum did this year, he would shoot 62 percent beyond the arc?
Of course not. There would be a smoothing as Jordan scaled up to the rate of attempts for guards in today’s game, but it’s safe to assume he would shoot at a rate above the league average.
It’s hard to quantify, but it’s safe to assume, too, that had Jordan played today his mindset for being the best would remain.
3-pointers are in. Doesn’t it seem likely that Jordan would try to be one of the best at the skill deemed most important on a league-wide level?
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Apply his competitive work ethic and desire to be the best to modern league trends and there’s a good chance he could be one of the top volume shooters.
That said, Jordan was no stat stuffer. Jordan won, that’s what he did. He would stop at nothing to win games, even if it meant being the one to drag Dennis Rodman back from vacation.
Winning is sometimes about not the most valuable shot or highest points per possession shot, but the best available shot. Though 3-pointers are in, Jordan might be one to buck the trend and scoff at the analytics.
Could Michael Jordan have excelled in the 3-point era?
So, where does that leave us? I think right in the middle. I believe if Jordan were to play today, applying himself to modern offenses and defenses, absolutely he’d take more threes. At the same time, I don’t think he’d become a player who only shoots 3-pointers. To a degree, he’d keep some semblance of his mid-range heavy game from the 90s.
I could see him shooting something like 350 3-pointers at a rate of 38-40 percent.
His career high in terms of volume was 297 (37.4 percent) and in terms of percentage was 42.7 percent (260 attempts, 17-game season omitted).
It’s a great question, one we’ll never have the official answer to.