Los Angeles Lakers: What if Kawhi Leonard signed in 2019?

Taking a look at how the Los Angeles Lakers would have been affected on the court if Kawhi Leonard chose to sign with them in 2019.

There is a perception around the league that Kawhi Leonard didn’t sign with the Los Angeles Lakers because he wanted to compete against LeBron James. Ben Golliver of the Washington Post argued that Leonard signed with the LA Clippers because he cherished the opportunity to steal Los Angeles from James.

But have you ever thought about how different the team would be if Leonard joined them? The answer is Leonard would have been the focal point of the team. James spent the majority of the last offseason trying to quiet the narrative that other starters didn’t want to play with him.

Paul George told the Indiana Pacers in 2017 that he wouldn’t sign a long term extension as he wanted to play for the Lakers. Consequently, the Pacers put him on the trading block after the 2016-17 season. Unfortunately, the Lakers weren’t willing to trade for him because they figured why give up assets (Lonzo Ball or Brandon Ingram) when we can sign him in a year during free agency.

The Lakers’ stance led to George being traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Everyone thought OKC was a one year pit stop because of his desire to play in Los Angeles. However, George surprised people as he signed a long term extension with Oklahoma City during the 2018 free agency.  George signed the deal without giving the Lakers a meeting because he believed there was unfinished business in Oklahoma City.

People were taken aback by George’s decision because Russell Westbrook has the reputation of being a difficult teammate. George defended Westbrook by telling ESPN’s Royce Young that James had the same reputation around the league:

"“You could say that about a lot of guys,” George said. “LeBron is the best player in our league, but some people have a hard time playing with him. One thing you can’t say about Russ is that he’s not ready or he’s not prepared. That’s him every night.”"

James’ reputation led him to tell free agents and players on the trading block during the 2019 offseason that they would be the focal point of the team. James would relay this message also to Anthony Davis and Leonard when discussing the possibility of playing together.

James kept his word to Anthony Davis as he became a focal point of the organization after being traded there last summer, even when at the expense of the team. James and the organization would go in to consult with Davis before making any transactions during the offseason.

This was evident following Davis’ press conference, where he publicly acknowledged that he preferred not to play center. The Lakers decided soon after to resign JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to split the minutes at the center position. More importantly, LA decided to run a post-up-centric offense, seeing it as a strength of Davis throughout his career.

He averaged 6.7 post-ups before LA while shooting 42.7 percent from the field on 3.7 shot attempts per game. His field goal percentage has helped him average 3.9 points, 14.6 percent of his scoring output, for a total of 26.7 points on average.

Consequently, the team is currently second in post-up possessions averaging 14.5 per game. 62.1 percent of those possessions belong to Davis at 5.3 per game.

The treatment of Davis, when traded, indicates that Leonard would have held a similar level of influence. Ryen Russillo revealed on Adrian Wojnarowski’s podcast last year that Davis and James were going to tell Leonard that he would be the focal point of the organization:

"They are going to tell [Kawhi] anything he wants to hear. They are going to tell Kawhi, ‘You can take all the last shots. We can run the offense through you.’ And LeBron has a style of play that could, I’d say, adapt to another guy like that. Anthony Davis puts up massive numbers without being selfish so I could see it working."

Consequently, the Lakers would have most likely implemented a pick and roll centric offense, as it had been one Leonard had thrived in during his last two seasons. He has averaged 7.4 pick and rolls per game during this span while shooting 44.9 percent from the field on 5.6 shot attempts. His field goal percentage has helped him average 7.3 points, 27.3 percent of his scoring output, for a total of 26.7 points on average.

Where LA would have run into challenges is finding the right role for Davis in this offensive scheme. Davis would have had to choose between playing center or becoming a 3-point shooting power forward. Kawhi excels in the role of running pick and roll with one big man as a screener surrounded by three shooters.

If AD had insisted on playing power forward, he would have had to become a shooter, as the center would mostly be a screener. This is not an area of strength for him. He is, in fact, a below-average 3 point shooter, with a career percentage of only 31.9 percent, and as a result, often finds defenders leaving him open.

Having a help defender would have created issues for the Lakers as Davis’ defender would be free to roam the court to help with teammates having troubles with their assignments. On the other hand, if Davis had agreed to play center, he would have had to overcome his mental hurdler about the physicality associated with the position.

If Davis found a way to overcome his issues, he would have been a great pick and roll partner for Leonard as he has been successful as a roll man throughout his career. Davis has rolled to the basket 4.4 times per game over the past four-plus seasons. Davis is shooting 52.4 percent from the field when rolling to the basket on 3.7 attempts per game, allowing him to score 4.9 points a game. It has accounted for 18.3 percent of his scoring average.

More importantly, Davis can minimize the team’s vulnerability by playing center as head coach Frank Vogel can remove the second big man and replace him with an extra shooter. Consequently, the additional shooter will put extra pressure on the defender in the playoffs. If opposing teams leave three defenders near the basket, the ball handler will kick it to the additional shooter for the wide-open 3-pointer.

The shifted in the offensive system wouldn’t affect James as he is already used to playing the role of shooter. However, Leonard would have to depend on his costars to fix the team’s defensive issues.

The Lakers are currently most vulnerable in transition as they are 21st in opponent’s field goal percentage. It allows them to shoot 51.2 percent from the field in 14.5 attempts per game.

LA’s field goal percentage is playing a role in surrendering the seventh-highest point total in transition as opponents are averaging 20.7 per game in 18.9 possessions. Their defensive issues are related to a lack of effort from James. His defensive effort is near an all-time low as he is running 1.04 miles per game at an average speed of 3.33 miles per hour.

For example, James decided to slowly backpedal down the court during a first-quarter possession vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. His decision contributed to Brandon Ingram being able to run freely down the right-wing until he approached the basket. It allowed Ingram to receive a pass from Jrue Holiday as he approached the basket for a dunk.

Unfortunately, Leonard is the type of player who will hold teammates accountable for their actions. His former teammate David Lee told Blecher Report in 2017 that Leonard only spoke when someone approached him.

It doesn’t appear that Leonard has changed his approach since leaving the San Antonio Spurs. His Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse acknowledged during the preseason last year that Leonard was a quiet leader who occasionally gave teammates a word of advice. Furthermore, Fred Van Vleet said Leonard didn’t open up to teammates for a long time.

Therefore, the team would have had to depend on James finding the internal motivation to increase his effort to fix their transition defense issues. Leonard would have changed the team schematically, but their success would still depend upon the choices of Davis and James.