If the NBA playoffs take place, the Denver Nuggets may find themselves matched up with the LA Lakers. Despite the Lakers’ talent, here are a few ways the Nuggets can find an edge.
With the Denver Nuggets being the only team in the bracket capable of pulling an upset, the Western Conference Finals pairs them up against the Los Angeles Lakers. Much like the previous series against the LA Clippers, the Nuggets will have their hands full this series. In fact, the Nuggets would have to essentially play a perfect series to pull off this upset.
In order for the Nuggets to have any advantage offensively, there needs to be floor spacing. The Lakers are elite defensively at just about every position, meaning mismatches and open shots need to be created somehow rather than just purely isolating.
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The first, and most distinct advantage that can be created in favor of the Nuggets, is to utilize a reverse pick and roll. This is a strategy that they would’ve utilized against the Clippers as well, with Nikola Jokic being the ball handler and Jamal Murray setting the screen. Assuming the Lakers switch on the screen, Jokic will find himself with the 6’3” Avery Bradley guarding him.
Bradley is a pretty solid on-ball defender, but as soon as the switch occurs Jokic can give the ball to Murray. From here there are two options. The best one will be to have Jokic post up on the significantly smaller defender, where he thrives. The other option is to have Murray isolate off the dribble with JaVale McGee covering him. Murray can beat McGee off the dribble and will either have an opportunity at the rim or will be able to find an open shooter thanks to a double-teaming defender.
Another solid option offensively would be to spruce up the regular starting lineup of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, and Nikola Jokic, by starting Michael Porter Jr. over Harris.
Porter only started one game all season, but he provides a few things that Harris doesn’t. For one, he is six inches taller than Harris. He also shot a scorching 42.2 percent from 3 last season, while Harris only shot 33.3 percent. Porter’s size allows him to get that shot off more easily, as long as he is fully recovered from the injury he suffered in January.
With Bradley guarding Jokic in the post and the other four starters on the perimeter, the Lakers are forced to make a decision. They can either leave Jokic isolated where he should have no problem scoring over a smaller defender, or they will have to double down and gamble that whoever is left open on the perimeter won’t hit the open 3-pointer. I like the scoring odds in both situations, as every Nuggets starter is a legit threat from behind the 3-point line.
The big defensive key for the Denver Nuggets will be to limit the production of either LeBron James or Anthony Davis, while also keeping the Lakers shooters in check.
Going against conventional wisdom, forcing LeBron to score more might be the key here. LeBron averaged 25.7 points and 10.6 assists per game this season, but I think that if he could be forced to average 35 points and 5 assists per game that would provide a slight Nuggets advantage.
It’s important when LeBron penetrates that the help defenders stay home on perimeter shooters. Help defense is why LeBron was able to rack up a lot of easy assists to wide-open shooters this season. When the ball defender is beat, they need to avoid fouling. However, if a mismatch is created away from the basket, I think the Nuggets could spare a foul to send LeBron to the line or at least to fix the mismatch, as he only shot 69.7 percent from the free throw line this season.
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Rajon Rondo, McGee, and Dwight Howard all shot 65 percent or worse from the free throw line this season, which means that intentionally fouling one of those players could be a method of disrupting Laker momentum at various moments in the game. It’s important that the fouls are honest attempts at stealing the ball so they aren’t ruled as flagrant or anything that would give the Lakers a shot and the ball back. Also, deep rotation players could be subbed in to burn fouls when necessary.
Just to note, I personally hate intentionally fouling as strategy, but this series will be close and it will be a strategy that could give the Denver Nuggets a slight edge.
With LeBron being forced to score less and facilitate more, that means Anthony Davis needs to be less of a scorer. There’s not much to do to limit his effectiveness in transition as he is long, athletic, and has tremendous touch, but I do recommend doubling him in the half-court offense. Sending AD to the free throw line won’t work, as he shoots an effective 84.5 percent.
Jamal Murray is the best candidate to double in my opinion since his defensive assignment, Rajon Rondo, isn’t much of a scoring threat from anywhere. Rondo hitting 3s is something that the Nuggets will have to live with, as he normally isn’t a deep threat. Again, the important note is that AD can’t be fouled.
Given these strategies, I think that the Nuggets would still need to get hot and have a little luck to win this series, but anything is possible in the playoffs. If this upset was pulled off, the Denver Nuggets would reach their first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history and would face the formidable Milwaukee Bucks.