Verdict
I came into this conversation thinking that Young would be the more obvious choice here. In looking at statistics and highlight plays and how both play the game, my final decision swung to Morant more than once. Especially when considering how Young could, in theory, be played off the court in the playoffs.
But we’re yet to see either guy get to that stage, which gives Young time to figure out how to ensure that doesn’t happen. It also gives the Hawks a chance to put the right guys around him as well. In the end, Young came out the winner here, but the fact that it is not an open and shut case again speaks to how lucky the Grizzlies are to have Morant for the foreseeable future.
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10 years ago we couldn’t have predicted the NBA trending the way that it did (if we had, the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic might have leaned into more and won a championship). So by the time we get to 2020, there could be a new way of playing, a new approach, that makes the game of Young less impactful.
As long as three points count for more than two, however, and my basic understanding of maths would point to that being forever, Young is going to have a lot of value in the league. If he could learn from smaller guys like Chris Paul, who was an elite defender, then this conversation would be done a lot quicker.
Even becoming a D.J. Augustin type on that end (that is to say, average and not harming his team on most nights) would be of huge benefit to Young. With Morant, we have to think the other way, although as a 36.7 percent 3-point shooter in year one the future looks bright in terms of his ability to be an even better offensive player.
You might also favor the situation of Morant as well, as alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. and De’Anthony Melton they have a funky group that was already making noise in the tougher West. Meanwhile, the Hawks have struggled to gain traction in the East as a playoff team. We might revisit this down the road, but for now, give me Trae Young by a noticeable margin.