Toronto Raptors: A Vince Carter ‘what-if’ has too many variables

As Vince Carter’s career is put in perspective, his time with the Toronto Raptors returns to focus.

On March 12, Vince Carter may have abruptly completed his NBA career. The COVID-19 pandemic spread into the Association, and the season was subsequently suspended indefinitely. Suddenly, it was time to break out party hats and retrospectives on the league’s oldest player’s stint. The memories sparked about one month earlier than expected, starting with the rollercoaster ride on the Toronto Raptors.

The 2019-20 season was written as Carter’s final run of a 22-year career. Sitting on the bench, mentoring the youth that surrounded him in mostly unwinnable situations, the player dubbed “Vinsanity” took roles unlike anything in his prosperous career beginning in his age-38 season with the Memphis Grizzlies, creating a long, slow road to retirement. He was long past his prime, but valuable enough for three teams to take a chance in six years, to watch over the stars.

More from Hoops Habit

• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
• NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers

Vince Carter was once that guy, though; a standard-bearer, a leader of a franchise. Heck, he can be credited with putting the Raptors on the map in 1998, creating hysteria around a still-fresh NBA franchise that was just a few years old. Carter was the young one looking at an aging Charles Oakley and Kevin Willis for advice in his earliest NBA days.

“The one thing I’ll say about Oak is that Tracy [McGrady] and I never had to worry about anything,” Carter told Bob Rohrbach of Yahoo Sports in 2019. “He taught us how to play the game, how to be tough, respect the game and don’t take no junk from nobody.” And play the game, he did,

Vince Carter was the star. The 23.4 points per game, five All-Star appearances and a handful of playoff appearances made for a fine resume, but the flashiness and the highlight-reel plays made him a transcendent figure with the Toronto Raptors. His six-and-a-half years were special, and they have returned to the spotlight in lieu of a career celebration. But not everything was rosy.

Three early exits from the playoffs and the disaster that was the 2002-03 season, a 24-58 record, sent the Carter train off the rails. An inefficient supporting cast surrounded him, and it was clear that help was needed but nowhere in sight.

So, in Sept. 2004, after a long, developing spat between him and the organization, Carter reportedly asked for a trade, per the Toronto Star (h/t CBC.ca), saying at the time “it’s just time for me to look after me.” The Raptors dealt him to the New Jersey Nets that December for Alonzo Mourning, Aaron Williams, Eric Williams, a 2004 first round pick (Joey Graham) and a 2006 first round pick (Renaldo Balkman). Carter found the postseason with the Nets, the peak was the 2006 and 2007 Eastern Conference Semifinals. Underwhelming, to say the least.

Otherwise, nothing ever lined up properly, post-trade, for Carter. He missed New Jersey’s title window; the Nets were not over .500 for three of his seasons, and they started to rebuild in his final two years there; and he joined each of the Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks one year too late, after they either made or won the NBA Finals or were on the cusp.

Carter just never found that same, consistent success once seen in his early Toronto days.

For Toronto, the Vince Carter trade, for the most part, canceled the Toronto Raptors for the next nine seasons, with seven losing records, a 41-41 year and an outlier campaign of 47-35 in 2006-07, when a still-healthy T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani were Chris Bosh‘s supporting cast. Not until DeMar DeRozan‘s evolution and Kyle Lowry‘s arrival did everything turn around, in 2013-14.

Bosh arrived before Carter’s departure. A 20-year-old at the time of the deal, the Georgia Tech product blossomed into the next face of the franchise and would have been the perfect sidekick to the original star; someone who manned the frontcourt and could have opened room for Carter to operate.

Of course, they played just over one season together, with the team amassing a 40-63 record in that stretch. Chris Bosh was also not Chris Bosh in Dec. 2004. As a still-skinny power forward, he averaged 12.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per 36 minutes as a rookie and 12.8 points and 7.0 rebounds in the final 21 games before the Carter trade.

There was obvious potential, given how Bosh ascended after the blockbuster transaction, but Carter was not patient for a rebuild. Along with being in his prime, injuries took an early toll, so he quickly needed more help. It was difficult to fault that, but the chaotic escapades of his departure were overwhelming and incited disdain from Raptors fans.

More from Toronto Raptors

• NBA Trades: 10 Pascal Siakam deals the Raptors must consider
• Grade the Trade: Warriors become title-favs in proposed deal with Raptors
• NBA Trades: Memphis bolsters their roster in this deal with Toronto
• NBA Trades: This Pelicans-Raptors deal would send a star to the Big Easy
• 3 NBA teams facing do-or-die 2023–2024 seasons

The burden of Toronto had been on Carter’s shoulders. Tracy McGrady was years out from his abrupt tenure, and there was never another Robin to Carter’s Batman, with the 47-35 2000-01 season the most egregious scope of that. With Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams and Charles Oakley as the three next-highest scorers, it’s amazing to think the Raptors were just one game from the Eastern Conference Finals, and they never approached that again in this partnership.

So, let’s assume McGrady still takes that massive deal with Orlando in 2000 and Carter never flips a switch on Toronto. This remains a team in need of a rebuild in the mid-2000s, and Carter probably still takes the brunt of leading the Raptors until Bosh develops; but do they cooperate as co-conspirators? Would Carter cede a piece of his pie?

It is also lost that Carter had four years remaining on a six-year contract, so he could have ridden out the remainder of it. He potentially breaks down faster, though, with Toronto not being enough of a marquee free-agent destination to attract notable players. The biggest name signed from 2005-07: Anthony Parker.

Meanwhile, do the Toronto Raptors still go through a gauntlet of busts in the draft? Rafael Araujo was the final pre-trade pick, before Charlie Villanueva, Joey Graham and Andrea Bargnani followed. There is no telling what the final records would be or where the team falls in the draft order from 2005-07, but the former president of basketball operations, Rob Babcock, spearheaded a troublesome era in all facets. Bryan Colangelo, however, reshaped the team. Could he have fit pieces around Carter?

Basically, the Toronto Raptors would have floundered, but not absolutely cratered, with Carter around. Sure, if Bosh meshed well enough with the first face of the franchise, perhaps they find a playoff appearance and win a few games, but LeBron James was rising, the Miami Heat became a contender with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal, and the Detroit Pistons still had an NBA Finals run left in them in 2005. Even the Indiana Pacers were on top of their game in 2004-05, pre “Malace at the Palace.”

Carter probably leaves in 2008. Needing a stronger supporting cast, he finds a role with the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic two years earlier than he did in reality. Perhaps the Los Angeles Lakers become an option, as well, after losing the NBA Finals to the Boston Celtics, to become that veteran add-on to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.

There will forever be hypotheticals around Vince Carter’s time with the Toronto Raptors. From working longer with Tracy McGrady to sticking out a likely dismal era of basketball in the 2000s, the “what-ifs” triumph what actually happened. If these sides were able to extend the memories, perhaps there are more celebrations and fewer outcries for the former Captain of Canada Basketball.