The case for LeBron James to win MVP over Giannis Antetokounmpo
By Jason Timpf
The numbers
I want to start with the concept of advanced analytics. They have been in Giannis’ favor all year long, but as the gap in the standings between the Bucks and Lakers all but vanished before the end of the season, Giannis’ fans have leaned far more heavily on those metrics to make their case.
I’m referring to metrics such as net rating, defensive win shares, ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, player efficiency rating, etc. Giannis leads the league in every single one of these metrics, although LeBron is right behind him at 4th in net rating (among players averaging at least 30 minutes per game), 2nd in defensive win shares, 2nd in Real Plus Minus, and 9th in player efficiency rating.
Don’t get me wrong, advanced metrics bring a lot of value to these discussions because they remove subjectivity. They produce results that are tangible and measurable. The problem in this case is that these metrics are a result of equations that require data input, and the data being input for the Bucks is very different than the data being input for the Lakers.
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This is where we have to really dive into the schedule to understand. The East was historically bad at the bottom this year. This has nothing to do with the pathway through the playoffs for contenders or any of the tired “East vs. West” debates we hear every season. This is strictly dealing with the bottom of the league.
This year, seven of the nine worst teams in the league were in the East. Last year was far more even, as only five of the nine worst teams in the league were in the East. So this was a random confluence of injuries and tanking that led to an unusually weak schedule for Eastern Conference contenders.
Teams play 52 of their 82 regular season games against their own conference. So it goes without saying that the schedule led to a dramatic inflation of many of the advanced metrics in favor of Giannis and the Bucks. They spent an unusually large portion of their schedule pounding the heck out of bad basketball teams.