Miami Heat: Who has been the team’s third-best player this season?

All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are clearly the Miami Heat’s two best players. A plethora of guards vies for the title of Miami’s third-best player.

The Miami Heat were one of eight teams to have two All-Stars in the 2019-20 season. Jimmy Butler made his fifth All-Star Game while Bam Adebayo made his first All-Star appearance in just the third season of his career. These two players – Miami’s two leading scorers and best individual defenders – are unquestionably the best Miami has to offer.

That leaves the title of third-best player up for grabs. The three strongest candidates are Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Goran Dragic. After the two All-Stars, Dragic (16.1 points per game), Nunn (15.6), and Robinson (13.3) are third, fourth, and fifth on Miami in scoring in that order, respectively.

Nunn and Dragic are quite similar in terms of playstyle; neither point guard is an other-worldly athlete but still score at a fairly efficient rate using solid ball-handling abilities and shooting off the dribble. Both are also solid playmakers.

Robinson’s playstyle is much different; Miami’s starting wing is a 3-point sniper unlike anyone in the league. He’s the very definition of a 3-point specialist, shooting a league-leading 88.6 percent of his field goals from beyond the arc.

Shooting falls in favor of Duncan Robinson, who has made the jump from G League player to one of the league’s best sharpshooters in just one offseason. Dragic (37.7 percent shooting from deep) and Nunn (36.2 percent) are good shooters, too. They each average a modest 5.8 attempts per game.

Still, they don’t come close to Robinson’s level, as he converts on 44.8 percent of his 8.4 3-point attempts per game. In the 2019-20 season, he’s the only player to rank in the top three in both 3-point attempt rate and true shooting percentage – ranking first and third, respectively – meaning he’s one of the most efficient scorers in the league while taking triples more frequently than any other player.

Playmaking goes in favor of Dragic. His 5.1 assists per game rank first among the trio, with Nunn averaging 3.4 and Robinson averaging 1.4. He has the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.05; Nunn edges him with 2.08 and Robinson trails them both at 1.52.

Shot-creation is very close, but Dragic and Nunn undoubtedly have Robinson beat there. The two are quick, nifty ball-handlers and can effectively get by defenders. They can make quick passes to find open teammates off the dribble, too. This isn’t the case for Robinson, who doesn’t show much creativity with the ball.

Robinson lacks strong ball-handling skills, which is why 94.1 percent of his made field goals this season were assisted. Nunn and Dragic – who have percentages of 50.9 and 46.9, respectively – are creating their own shots roughly half the time they score. Robinson can shoot in a variety of ways: catch-and-shoot, off a dribble-handoff, while moving off a screen. The one that evades him is off the dribble.

Dragic is the most adept at getting to the foul line. His free-throw rate (the rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempts) of .333 ranks tied-for-57th in the league. Nunn (.108) and Robinson (.086) don’t even crack the top 250. Yet, Dragic has the worst free throw percentage of the trio; Robinson leads with 90.6 percent, Nunn comes in second at 83.7 and Dragic lags behind at 76.9.

Despite having a smaller skillset than Nunn and Dragic, Robinson is the most impactful. When he’s on the court, Miami’s offensive rating increases by 8.5 points, the highest rate on the Heat. Nunn boosts the Heat’s offensive rating by 1.0 point and Dragic brings it down by 0.1 points.

Robinson increases the Heat’s overall net rating by 12.3 points when he’s on the floor, more than Butler and Adbeyao combined. Neither player increases the Heat’s net rating by five. Nunn and Dragic both decrease Miami’s net rating when they play by 1.1 points and 1.6 points, respectively.

Although Robinson ranks third in the group in points per game, it’s not even a margin of three full points. He also takes the least amount of shots per game; Nunn leads the Heat with 13.7, Dragic is third at 12.3 and Robinson is seventh at 9.4.

Robinson also ranks last of the trio in assists per game but that’s because he’s not used as an offensive initiator like Dragic and Nunn. Robinson is never tasked with the offense because he lacks the handle and quickness to do it, which counts against him.

Still, the 6’7” wing is a smart passer, even though he assists his teammates less frequently than almost every other player in Miami’s rotation.

The disparity in scoring efficiency between Robinson and the point guards further emphasizes how he is more impactful. Robinson posts the highest field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage. He has the edge in several advanced stats, including true shooting percentage, total win shares, win shares per 48 minutes and box plus/minus. However, he ranks last in the group in PER, whereas Dragic ranks first.

Still, Robinson’s ability to boost Miami’s offense makes him the more impactful, and therefore better, player of the trio. Behind the team’s two All-Stars, he’s the 2019-20 Miami Heat’s third-best player.