Both Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan can contribute for the Brooklyn Nets. It seems, however, that Nets players and fans have been asked to pick a side.
It feels like months ago now following the suspension of the NBA season, but when the Brooklyn Nets and former head coach Kenny Atkinson agreed to part ways last week, it unleashed a ton of speculation about what precipitated it.
There are plenty of avenues one can go down (once basketball resumes sometime in the future), with one involving Jarrett Allen’s presence in the starting lineup over DeAndre Jordan (Allen has 58 starts vs. Jordan’s six). The Kyrie Irving–Kevin Durant-DeAndre Jordan signings this offseason were framed as a package deal, so if there has been some tension, perhaps it’s come from Irving and/or Durant?
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This theory was given even more credence when with his first move as interim head coach, Jacque Vaughn placed Jordan into the starting lineup. In the first game since the change, Brooklyn beat the Chicago Bulls 110-107. Jordan was a +12 in 28 minutes, while Allen was a -7 in 19 minutes.
Although the tide seems to be turning in favor of Jordan, it’s difficult to know how the big-man pecking order will shake out going forward. What is worth considering, is which player should be getting the bulk of the minutes at center? They’ve shared the floor exactly zero minutes this season, so in a sense it’s a zero-sum game.
A few precursors…The following analysis will not take team chemistry into account. Even if Allen is significantly better than Jordan for example, it’s possible it’s still better for Jordan to see more minutes if It makes the rest of the team much happier.
Additionally, although Jordan (31) is much older than Allen (21), this won’t be held against him too much. The question is which player should be the guy over the next few seasons. The front office surely hopes it will be competing for championships over this stretch.
Jarrett Allen vs. DeAndre Jordan
Let’s see what the numbers say (as of March 10th).
Basic Stats
Jarrett Allen: Averaging 25.8 minutes, 10.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 64.7 field goal percentage
DeAndre Jordan: Averaging 21.9 minutes, 8.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 66.8 field goal percentage
It’s difficult to differentiate the two based on the above statistics. Perhaps some advanced stats will provide more insight.
Interior Defense
On attempts within six feet of the basket, opponents are shooting 50.7 percent against Allen and 50.0 percent against Jordan (per NBA.com). Allen is recording 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes compared to 1.5 for Jordan. Based on these metrics, there’s no edge when it comes to interior defense.
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Rebounding
DeAndre Jordan is posting 12.3 defensive rebounds per 36 compared to 9.0 for Allen, and 4.1 offensive rebounds per 36 vs. 4.3 for Allen.
Jordan is grabbing 76.4 percent of his potential defensive rebounds, with Allen snagging 64.4 percent. Jordan is grabbing 46.8 percent of potential offensive rebounds vs. 44.4 percent for Allen.
The edge likely goes to Jordan when it comes to rebounding.
Net Rating
Among 11 Nets players this season that have averaged at least 15 minutes per game, Allen is 4th in net rating at +0.4 (109.7 off., 109.3 def.). Jordan ranks 8th at -1.8 (103.5, 105.3).
It looks like Allen has the advantage here, but Jordan’s played better as of late. In the last 15 games, his 6.7 net rating bests Allen’s -0.7 by a significant margin.
Lineup Stats
PBP Stats provides insight into how groups of players perform together. As Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie are arguably the two most important players on the team (besides Durant), it’s worth exploring how Allen and Jordan have performed alongside them this season. See the below net ratings of each lineup duo.
Allen/Irving: 473 minutes, +1.09 net rating (115.5 off., 114.4 def.)
Jordan/Irving: 154 minutes, -2.64 net rating (114.6 off., 117.3 def.)
Allen/Dinwiddie: 1,320 minutes, +1.19 net rating (112.69 off., 111.51 def.)
Jordan/Dinwiddie: 599 minutes, +1.17 net rating (113.0 off., 111.8 def.)
The above statistics are far from perfect, but Allen faring better with Irving than Jordan is interesting. For another perspective, NBA.com provides insight into the team’s top three-man lineups this season.
Of Brooklyn’s 10 best three-man lineups that have played at least 300 minutes, Allen is a member of the first, second, fifth, eighth, ninth and 10th-best lineups. Jordan is only a member of the fourth.
For reference, the team’s top three-man combo has been Spencer Dinwiddie-Caris LeVert-Jarrett Allen. Overall, the lineup numbers tend to favor Allen.
Play Types
The Nets almost never post up, but both players have shot roughly the same field goal percentage when they get the ball in the paint: 68.2 percent for Allen and 68.7 percent for Jordan.
They’ve had comparable effectiveness on pick-and-rolls as well. Allen’s scored 1.35 points per possessions on 2.8 possessions per game, while Jordan is scoring 1.33 points in 1.7 opportunities per contest.
When it comes to screen assists, the big men are neck and neck again. Allen has recorded 267 screen assists in 1,627 minutes (.164/per minute) compared to 192 in 1,207 minutes for Jordan (.159/minute).
It’s fascinating how similar Jordan and Allen have been in the above categories.
Conclusion
From a chemistry perspective, it might make more sense for DeAndre Jordan to see more playing time than Jarrett Allen. But from an on-court perspective, is Jordan really better?
The statistics suggest a stalemate when it comes to interior defense, screening, pick-and-roll play and finishing in the paint. While the numbers suggest Jordan has the edge when it comes to rebounding, the net rating and lineup data clearly favors Allen. Jordan has fared better lately in this regard, but the sample size is too small to draw larger conclusions.
The bottom line: In a vacuum, Allen is probably the slightly better player, but the gap isn’t huge. When one factors in external factors like chemistry, it’s hard to argue the Nets are making the wrong call by giving Jordan more minutes.