Should the Philadephia 76ers be concerned about Al Horford?

Al Horford’s maiden season with the Philadelphia 76ers isn’t exactly panning out in favor, should the team be concerned about the 33-year-old?

When Al Horford put pen to paper and signed a lucrative four-year, $109 million this past summer, his addition was expected to augment the Philadelphia 76ers’ frontcourt.

Philly’s sheer size would allow for domination on the glass and in the paint. They’d be a defensive force that would send opposing offenses into frenzied fits and sporadic timeouts without answers. Such reasons were why the signing was done in good faith.

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After all, they got first-hand experience of his capabilities on the floor over the years as rivals of his formerly-employed teams. He was a player that often tormented the Philadelphia 76ers—most notably as a member of the Boston Celtics.

However, not everyone was as receptive to the deal; there were those who shunned the signing, pointing to his age and the term of the contract. From a basketball perspective, the lack of floor spacing, especially in today’s NBA, left much to be desired.

And thus far, those naysayers can feel justified in their pessimism—the fit has been subpar. It’s time to be concerned about Al Horford, either moderately or greatly.

When discussing Horford’s game, traditional stats could never encompass what he brought to the table. He’d routinely make the right play, be in perfect defensive position, or do the little things like making the correct weakside read or executing a perfectly timed off-ball screen to free up a teammate.

From an analytical standpoint, he’s what mathematicians and graph makers fantasize about. His advanced metrics, such as Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM), Win Shares Per 48 Minutes (WS/48) all painted a perfectly constructed, meticulous picture of his worth on the hardwood.

And though in some metrics he still is well above league average, something just doesn’t feel right. To be a tad more transparent: Horford and Joel Embiid just don’t work together as a frontcourt pairing. Which probably opposes the initial intentions the Sixers’ brass had when inking the deal.

In the 487 minutes, Embiid has shared the floor with Horford, the Sixers have an offensive rating of 98.7. Though such a metric has holes in it, it’s imperfect, comparing it to the Sixers’ other two-man combinations and their struggles are abundantly clear.

No other pairing for the Sixers who have seen 400+ minutes has an offensive rating below 100. In the world of tag-team wrestling, they’d be jobbers. Well paid jobbers, but still such.

Head coach Brett Brown recently formulated a conclusion to this problem: sending Horford to the bench to operate as their sixth man. Even going as far as comparing him to what Manu Ginobili was to the San Antonio Spurs.

As mentioned in the tweet, it’s one thing to compare the likes of different players with similar roles—current or present—but someone like Ginobili or a good modern example would be Lou Williams, more often than not closed games.

In OT against the Brooklyn Nets Thursday night, in what is a must-win game with playoff implications on the line, Horford didn’t see the court.

He was ineffective all game and was often on the receiving end of prolonged scoring runs in his 19 minutes, going plus/minus -26. It’s conceivable to think this was just an in-game rotation adjustment for Brown not playing Horford, who was struggling down the stretch, but his omission on the court was rather telling.

These are types of games he was brought in to aid the Philadelphia 76ers over the hump. He wasn’t signed to such a deal to act as a liability when sharing the floor with franchise cornerstone, Joel Embiid.

Though finding the right rotational fit for Horford has been troublesome this season, he is still by no means a net negative player. For the year, he boasts an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.8, and the Sixers have a net rating of +3.0 with him on the floor. As a sixth man, this could work—hell, it has to.

Philadelphia’s season has been filled with chaos and drama. There is uncertainty around the fit of Simmons and Embiid, Brown’s future, and a win-now mode that could go horrifically south, quick. Add into the mix a player whose worth is depreciating as Father Time looms closer to the door, and the logistics of Horford’s contract could represent another alarming obstacle.

It’s also noteworthy that the Philadelphia 76ers have no shortages of talent on their roster, there is reason to believe they get themselves situated before April. But until then, cautious pessimism regarding personnel fit is more than warranted.