Why Brooklyn Nets are hottest team entering second half

Entering the second half, the Brooklyn Nets are playing their best basketball of the season. What’s gone right as of late?

Currently the seven-seed, the Brooklyn Nets are two games ahead of the Orlando Magic and six games behind the Indiana Pacers. With a middling record and Kevin Durant’s return a season away, it might not seem like there’s too much to be excited about. The truth, however, is that Brooklyn is probably playing its best basketball of the season, and it should be interesting to monitor whether the team can keep this up.

Capped off by a 101-91 home victory over the Toronto Raptors, the Nets entered the All-Star break going 7-3 over the last ten games. Even more impressively, the team has the best net rating in the NBA over this 10-game stretch at +9.4, even better than the mighty Milwaukee Bucks at +9.2. Let that sink in. Per net rating at least, Brooklyn has been THE BEST team in the entire NBA over the last ten games.

This isn’t to say Barclays Center should start picking out the perfect spot for a championship banner. Ten games is a fairly small sample size, and net rating (the differential of points scored versus allowed per100 possessions) doesn’t adjust for strength of schedule. The Nets definitely benefitted from some soft competition during its recent stretch.

Five of the seven wins came against teams not currently in playoff position, including two against the Detroit Pistons, one against the Chicago Bulls, one against the Golden State Warriors and one against the Phoenix Suns. After falling to the Raptors by one point on the road, however, the Nets did secure two impressive wins: on the road against the Indiana Pacers and at home against the Raptors.

What’s gone right?

Offense

What’s gone right during this stretch?  The Nets have been stellar on both ends of the floor, ranking both third offensively (116.3) AND third defensively (106.9). This is compared to 22nd in offense and ninth in defense on the season.

On the offensive end, nothing has changed dramatically from a statistical perspective that could help explain the improved performance. Instead, several areas have seen marginal improvement. For example, the team’s offensive rebounding percentage has improved from 28.1 percent on the season to 30.3 percent over the last ten games. Additionally, their offensive turnover percentage has fallen from 15.2 percent on the season to 14.2 percent over the recent stretch.

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If there’s been any fairly significant improvement, it’s come in 3-point shooting. Brooklyn has attempted 41.6 percent of shots from long-range on the season and hit 34.2 percent of them. In the last ten games, these percentages have risen to 43.1 and 36.7 percent respectively. Suffice to say, the 3-point line has been a friend to the Brooklyn Nets lately.

Similar to the team’s statistical profile, there is no single player or players that have really exceeded expectations lately. Spencer Dinwiddie has shot 35.7 percent from three over the last ten (well up from his 30.9 percent on the season), but his 18.8 points per game is actually less than his 21.0 season average.

Kyrie Irving performed well in the four games he played (3-1), averaging 32.5 points. But clearly, his presence in only four of the contests suggests he hasn’t been the driving force behind the success either. Again, it seems to have been marginal improvements from a lot of players that has produced offensive success. Perhaps this kind of progress is more sustainable than that created by say, an individual player shooting 60 percent from downtown over a 10-game sample.

Defense

Just as their success from the 3-point line was arguably the major driver of Brooklyn’s offensive improvement, 3-point defense seems to have been the key on the defensive end as well.

Over the last ten games, the Brooklyn Nets have held opponents to a league-best 30.6 percent from 3-point range. This is up from 34.6 percent on the season, in which it ranks eighth in the NBA. For reference, the Miami Heat currently boast the league’s stingiest 3-point defense, with opponents only hitting 33.4 percent on the year.

While these statistics are impressive, it’s also possible the poor shooting of Brooklyn’s opponents has been a bit lucky. Rather than looking at 3-point percentage, many analytics-minded folks agree that defensive 3-point attempt rate is the better method when it comes to evaluating 3-point defense (which teams allow the fewest 3-point attempts).

Brooklyn checks this box as well. Its 33.4 percent defensive 3-point attempt rate over the last ten ranks second lowest in the NBA. This has improved a bit from the defense’s 36.5 percent attempt rate on the season (7th lowest).

Conclusion

It remains to be seen whether Brooklyn will be able to keep up its recent play. Tougher opponents, a loss of momentum due to the All-Star break and basic regression are all potential factors that could bring this team back to Earth.

As the team begins the second half of the season, its success (or lack thereof) beyond the arc on both ends of the floor will be the numbers worth monitoring. If these positive trends continue, then perhaps the Brooklyn Nets can keep the good times rolling

(Credit to NBA.com for statistics)