The Duncan Robinson effect is real for the Miami Heat

In a very short space of time, sharpshooter Duncan Robinson has had a profound impact on the success of the Miami Heat in 2019-20.

After playing 15 games in his debut season on a two-way contract last year, it was hard to ascertain just what role Duncan Robinson would occupy entering this season. With just 161 career minutes under his belt, and with a vastly different looking Miami Heat roster, Robinson’s spot in the rotation was somewhat up in the air.

Unfortunately, his preseason did not pan out as hoped. Robinson shot at a measly 28.2 clip from long distance in his five appearances, four of those in the starting lineup. As a result, Robinson started the season in the second unit despite the absence of Jimmy Butler for the opening three games.

But with Justise Winslow beginning a season-long pattern of absence from hitting the floor due to a bone bruise in his back, Robinson was inserted as a starter on Oct. 31 against the Atlanta Hawks. Since then, Robinson has not missed a beat, despite essentially playing in his rookie season in an NBA setting.

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In 48 starts, the 6’7″ Robinson has averaged 13.1 points in 30.1 minutes per game, shooting at an elite 44.0 percent clip from 3-point range on 8.4 attempts per game. Primarily an off-the-ball operator, the space Robinson creates for the Heat at the offensive end has been an incredible asset for head coach Erik Spoelstra.

As Spoelstra himself said this season in an interview with Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald:

"“The work ethic, the success that he has had in practice and in games. The confidence that our veteran players have given him. All of these things add up to his esteem matching the level of the talent of his shooting, which he has had for quite a while.”"

Through the first 68 games of his career, Robinson is simply in another stratosphere in terms of his production from 3-point range. At 195 triples in this time, the closest rival to Robinson is Luka Doncic with 161 and Donovan Mitchell with 160 triples. However, the conversion rate in not even close. While Doncic and Mitchell converted at a 33.3 and a 33.8 percent clip respectively, Robinson has done it at an incredible 42.6 percent return.

Considering he’s just in the very early stages of his career, Robinson’s trajectory and improvement has been simply amazing. Following his latest game, a 19-point performance in the Heat’s crucial 113-101 win over the Golden State Warriors, Robinson took his current streak of multiple 3-pointers to 23 games, including three or more in the past 15 games.

Earlier this season, Robinson noted the support he has received from everyone within the organization:

"“I’ve been really fortunate that I have a locker room and coaching staff and front office that they’ve done nothing but encourage and push me and want me to be successful. When you have people like that in your corner, it makes it so much easier. I’m just appreciative of it all. I’m just still trying to grow through everything, learn. I feel like I’m still far from what I could be as a player.”"

Having now led the team in minutes played since Jan. 28, Duncan Robinson’s rise is simply remarkable. And with the 3-point shooting contest awaiting for him at the upcoming All-Star weekend in Chicago, his reputation is likely to rise even higher on a national level.