Delving through the declining numbers of the Miami Heat

Having somewhat fallen off the pace in recent weeks, here’s a look into some of the numbers impacting the performance of the Miami Heat.

At 32-15 and fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, the season thus far for the Miami Heat has been a resounding success. However, that doesn’t mean all things have been going smoothly in recent weeks.

After reaching a 27-10 record following an impressive 122-108 road win over the Indiana Pacers, the Heat have since gone 5-5, with their back-to-back losses to the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks a sign of things to come. As has been the case all the season, the problems don’t begin at the offensive end.

Through 37 games, the Heat ranked 10th in the league with a 110.4 offensive rating and over the past 10 games have in fact ramped this up to a 115.7 rating, ranking sixth during this time. But it’s been at the other end of the floor in which the majority of the Heat’s problems lie.

In their opening 37 games, the Heat were a solid 10th in the league with a 106.7 defensive rating, culminating in a plus-3.7 net rating. But since Jan.10, the Heat have plummeted to 22nd in defensive efficiency at 113.7, leaving them with a 13th-ranked 108.2 rating over the course of the season.

Ever since team president Pat Riley arrived in 1995, the Heat have prided themselves on their performance on the defensive end of the floor. Following their latest loss,109-101 at home to the Boston Celtics, head coach Erik Spoelstra commented on their recent struggles:

"“We’re working to get to a better level defensively, all across the board. It’s not just our man. It’s our transition defense and our zone. We’re capable of it. We’ve had great moments in either scheme. Our lack of consistency has been the biggest challenge, the hurdle we’ve been trying to overcome.“We’ll get there. We just have to continue to work at it, drill it, watch it, teach it, learn from our mistakes, all the above.”"

As Spoelstra correctly noted, there’s not one specific aspect that has contributed to the Heat’s defensive woes. However, one possibility lies in the increased work load set upon a trio of the Heat’s core rotation.

Prior to this season, Duncan Robinson had played just 15 career games, while Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro entered the year as rookies. And while this trio has done everything you could ask for given their level of experience, the grind of an 82-game NBA season is something else.

This doesn’t mean their play has completely fallen, as their play at the offensive end has been productive throughout. This is evidenced by Nunn and Herro being selected to the NBA Rising Stars Challenge at the upcoming All-Star weekend.

However, sustaining the necessary level of intensity at both ends of the floor is difficult for any player, let alone those in their NBA infancy. A classic example of this was during the recent loss to the Celtics, whereby Boston head coach Brad Stevens made it a point of targeting Robinson at the defensive end.

Moving forward, with only Justise Winslow remaining on the injury list, the Heat seemingly have close to a full bill of health before undertaking a highly challenging five-game, West Coast road trip leading into the All-Star break.

With a rare full three-day break leading up to their next game against the Orlando Magic, it will be fascinating to see how the Miami Heat respond to their recent drop in production.