What to expect from New Orleans Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson early on

Offense

A lot of Zion Williamson’s early success will be in transition, a la Ben Simmons, but with more finishing instead of setting up others. A full-speed Zion Williamson is truly a freight train and coach Alvin Gentry would be wise to let him get going in the open floor.

The New Orleans Pelicans knew this when drafting him and acquired pieces to fit that model. Fellow rookie Jaxson Hayes only gets 0.8 possessions per game in transition, but he’s finishing in the 97th percentile on those looks (1.52 points per possession, per NBA.com).

Expect him to get some nice lobs from Williamson. J.J. Redick is in the 88th percentile (1.34 PPP) and will continue to fly around the perimeter waiting for Zion’s looks against disjoint defenses.

Derrick Favors and Jahlil Okafor also have high efficiencies here (85th and 83rd percentile respectively), but they are less likely to play with Zion. Favors may start next to him, but Hayes is a better complement for the No. 1 pick and those two should get more minutes together.

Redick will also mesh well with Williamson in the half court. His 3-point shooting has been the class of the league for most of his career and this season his clip is up to a scorching 46.4 percent on 6.8 attempts per game.

The dribble-handoff game he had with Joel Embiid the past two seasons should be on display again with Zion, a man who projects to be too quick for most 5s and too strong for most 4s.

Williamson is too good to have a swing skill, but his jump shot will determine just how high he ascends. Defenses will likely dare him to shoot 3s, which is something he was only somewhat comfortable doing at Duke (3.9 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, about as frequent as a steal for him).

The half court may be difficult for him to parse through early on, but having Redick out there with him as much as possible should make things easier. Williamson could be used out of the high post when playing next to Favors and as a roll man when the Pelicans use a more stretchy big like Nicolo Melli.

Teams are going to force him to make plays. He may be a force to be reckoned with one day, but for now he’s going to be tasked with trying to make plays in tight spaces. He will have to pick his spots a lot more than he did at Duke, which isn’t exactly a hot take, but something to keep in mind with his first few games.

NBA teams are too smart to let a rookie as hyped as Zion Williamson get what he wants with ease.