Philadelphia 76ers have hurdles in potential Ben Simmons-D’Angelo Russell deal

According to the NBA rumor mill, there’s been talk of the Philadelphia 76ers trading Ben Simmons for D’Angelo Russell. It’s easy to dismiss, but has merit … if only it could work

A fascinating rumor came out last week when it was reported there has been some discussions about a possible deal between the Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors that would swap young All-Star point guards Ben Simmons for D’Angelo Russell. That’s easy to dismiss at first glance, but maybe it’s worth a deeper look.

Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic reported there has been some discussions about the possibility of such a trade from the Warriors side, with some concerns from Golden State’s perspective about the potential fit between Simmons and Draymond Green.

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With the Warriors, Simmons would not be the point guard, per se — that’s Stephen Curry‘s job for the foreseeable future. While Curry has missed most of this season with a fractured left hand, he’s under contract through 2021-22 on a supermax deal, which makes him difficult to move. Green is signed through 2022-23, with a player option for 2023-24, so he’ll be there awhile as well.

As for Russell, he signed a four-year, $117.33 million max deal last summer as part of a two-way sign-and-trade deal that sent Kevin Durant to the Brooklyn Nets.

In terms of matching salaries, that gets tricky … at least for this season. Simmons is in the final year of his rookie deal at $8.11 million before his five-year max extension worth $168.74 million kicks in next season.

Before we dive into how the cash flow would work on such a deal, we should first look at the basketball side of the proposal.

D’Angelo Russell has had an unexpected season for the Warriors, one in which he’s taken on a much larger role than was originally projected. Russell was seen initially as a replacement for injured Klay Thompson, who tore his left ACL during Game 6 of the NBA Finals and may miss all of this season.

When Thompson returns, the conventional wisdom had him sliding from the 2 to the 3, filling the spot vacated by Durant. Thompson has the size and defensive chops to pull it off.

But when Curry went down just four games into what has turned into a lost season for the Warriors, Russell was thrust into the same role he had with the Nets last season … running the offense and taking lots of shots.

If anyone had said Russell would have a higher usage rate (32.4 percent) with Golden State than he had last season in Brooklyn (31.9 percent), they would have been laughed out of the room. But here we are.

Russell hasn’t been immune from the injury bug that has plagued the Warriors all season, missing three games in early November with a sprained ankle, sitting out nine more contests in mid-November into early December with a sprained thumb and most recently being sidelined for six games with a bruised shoulder after a collision with Luka Doncic against the Mavericks on Dec. 28.

Russell has been back for two games from his most recent malady and in the 24 games he’s played this season is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds in 31.6 minutes per game on a shooting slash line of .432/.361/.770. His scoring is a career-high, as are his minutes per game and his 9.1 3-point tries a night.

And that’s where the potential for a deal for Simmons comes into play.

Ben Simmons is an extraordinary playmaker, particularly at his size (6-foot-10 and 230 pounds). He leads the NBA with an average of 2.2 steals per game, while also putting up 15.2 points, 8.4 assists and 7.6 rebounds in his 35.6 minutes nightly and since missing his rookie season with a broken foot, he’s been durable, missing just four games since the start of the 2017-18 season.

For as terrific as his 55.5 percent career shooting is, the overwhelming majority of his looks come from inside of 10 feet. This season, Simmons has taken a career-high 60 percent of his shots from the restricted area and another 33.1 percent from a distance of three to 10 feet.

As far as floor spacing goes, it’s an ongoing problem for Philadelphia. In 39 games and 1,389 minutes this season, Simmons has attempted five 3-pointers, making two of them (the first two makes of his career from the great beyond, where he is now 2-for-22 in his career).

Sixers coach Brett Brown said earlier this month that he has “failed” at getting Simmons to take at least one 3-ball per game, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Philadelphia’s new super-sized starting five has had some ups and downs this season, hitting the midway point at 25-16, on pace for one less victory than last season and two fewer than in 2017-18. The 76ers rank 25th in the NBA, attempting 30.1 3-pointers per game and are 17th with their 35.5 percent success rate on those deep balls.

The shooting woes in Philadelphia have been well-documented, but it has had the effect of pouring molasses into the gears of the offense. Despite having uber-athletic specimens such as Simmons, Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson, the 76ers average only 99.54 possessions per game, the 20th-fastest pace in the NBA.

That pacing, in turn, makes it more difficult to take advantage of their defense — specifically Simmons’ steals. Philadelphia is 21st in the league with 16.4 points per game off turnovers, though they are 12th with 14.0 fast-break points per game.

With Russell in tow, the 76ers would have a more traditional modern point guard, one who demands defensive attention further out than the dashed line in the middle of the paint. That in turn opens up more space for slashers such as Richardson and Tobias Harris to operate, as well as giving Joel Embiid more room to eat down low.

It could also relieve Embiid of the necessity to take nearly four 3-pointers per game at just a 32.2 percent success rate. Because Simmons won’t shoot, someone else has to. The problem is that none of the other starters have been particularly sniper-like from outside. Instead it’s been more of a shotgun blast effect or lightning never striking twice in the same spot.

Harris has the best percentage among the other starters at 34.9 percent on 4.7 attempts per game, followed by Richardson (34.1 on a team-leading 5.2 attempts), Al Horford (34.0 on 4.1 tries) and the aforementioned Embiid (32.2 on 3.8).

That’s not optimal in the pace-and-space era.  Philadelphia’s leading 3-point shooter this season has been rookie Matisse Thybulle, who has made 42.1 percent on 2.3 attempts per game, followed by Furkan Korkmaz, who is hitting 37.1 percent on 4.2 attempts a night.

Russell changes that dynamic dramatically.

The biggest impediment to the deal would be the price point. Russell’s cap number for this season is $27.29 million, leaving the 76ers more than $19 million shy of a match based on Simmons’ $8.11 million figure.

Philadelphia is not hard-capped this season, but they are already $19.25 million over the cap, per Jeff Siegel of Early Bird Rights, and just $4.25 million from the tax apron.

Under ordinary circumstances, the Sixers could get close to a match for Russell, but it would look something like this, as verified by TradeNBA:

To Philadelphia:

• D’Angelo Russell ($27.29 million)

To Golden State:

• Ben Simmons ($8.11 million)
• Josh Richardson ($10.12 million)
• Zhaire Smith ($3.06 million)
• Kyle O’Quinn ($1.62 million)

However, this is where Simmons’ extension complicated things. The 76ers would have to get the outgoing value up to near Russell’s 2019-20 salary figure … but Simmons’ contract comes with a poison pill restriction.

Because of the extension due to kick in next season, Simmons — for trading purposes — has essentially a two-value contract. It counts $8.11 million as an outgoing salary for the 76ers. But for the team acquiring Simmons, it counts as $29 million — next year’s salary figure.

It’s a trade that realistically cannot happen at this point, not with Golden State (a) hard-capped and (b) just $394,000 and change below the tax apron (the hard cap figure).

When Simmons’ extension takes effect on July 1, that’s an entirely different matter, because at that point a straight-up deal of Simmons ($29 million for 2020-21) for Russell ($28.65 million cap number next season) works.

So while it’s not as ridiculous as it might appear to be at first glance, but making it happen given the salary issues this season is nearly impossible.

The bottom line is that if Philadelphia wants to acquire more shooting for a playoff run this season, they’ll likely have to shop on a different aisle.