Should the Minnesota Timberwolves trade for Chris Paul?

With the Minnesota Timberwolves in the rumor mill once more, it’s time to evaluate the benefit trading for Chris Paul would have.

With the NBA trade deadline less than a month away, trade rumors are going to become more and more common through the end of the month. And, once again, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in the middle of another big trade rumor.

A week ago, it was Karl-Anthony Towns being targeted by the New York Knicks, and now it’s the possibility of the Timberwolves trading for Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Chris Paul.

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Now I know, a Chris Paul trade value article isn’t exactly boundary-pushing journalism. It’s about as well-trodden a topic as you can find in the NBA, probably right outside of how great is Luka Doncic right now, should Zion Williamson lose weight and how stale are those Phoenix nachos?

Still, it’s important now to reevaluate these rumors, because unlike when Paul’s trade to the Thunder first happened, we have about half a season of context to judge every player’s value by.

The main reason that it’s assumed the Timberwolves are in the hunt for CP3 is because of their on-going search for a long-term point guard. The fans and organization thought they had that in Jeff Teague and although he hasn’t been awful in Minny (13.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game), he also hasn’t been exactly what Minnesota was hoping that he would be.

First, let’s look at Paul’s production over the season.

The biggest surprise that leaps out when you watch CP3’s tapes is his seeming willingness to play in Oklahoma. With so many rumors swirling around from reputable sources that the Thunder were looking to deal Paul before the start of the season, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see him just sit and hurt his team instead of adding production (a la Andre Iguodala).

Instead, though, Paul seems dedicated to making things work in OKC. Just by the eye test, it looks like he’s playing with as much intensity as he would have had he stayed with the Houston Rockets.

Even at 34 years of age, Paul is playing like an All-Star caliber point guard. One area where his game is still incredibly impressive is his decision making.

Given that Paul has long been labeled a “floor general,” it’s understandable to see his assist numbers so high (6.4 per game, 18th in the league with players who have played more than 15 games), but that’s not all that goes into decision making.

Although it’s hard to measure statistically (decision making is one of those things you just kind of have to see), there are ways to do it. One way is to look at a player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the ratio, the more accurate his passes are.

Over the 38 games he’s played, Paul has averaged 6.4 assists per game to just 2.1 turnovers per game, for an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.04. For context, the best ever assist-to-turnover ratio in NBA history was posted last season by Tyus Jones at 6.9.

Paul’s assists are vital to this Thunder offense and when you combine his points off assists and points per game, they add up to almost a third of the Thunder’s total offensive production. Not only that, but Paul is one of the best in the league in True Passing Percentage, a stat which I just  made up.

TPP takes a player’s potential assists (passes which lead to a shot within one dribble) and divides it by the total passes a player makes. Paul’s number: 23.7 percent. This means that almost a quarter of Paul’s passes are going to a teammate in position to make a shot.

But with all of this in mind, how are we going to answer whether or not the Timberwolves should make a move for Chris Paul? Well, the most obvious place to start would be considering what a package would look like.

Aside from age, one of the major drawbacks to a Chris Paul trade is his contract. Paul is on one of the heaviest contracts in the league and is due another $41.36 million million next season, with a $44.21 million player option for 2021-22 (news flash, Paul will exercise this option entering his age-36 season).

With neither team having a ton of cap room, the Timberwolves would have to match Paul’s contract to within 25 percent less than or more than.

The most obvious piece to a package for Paul would be Teague, but with a $19 million salary, the Timberwolves would still need to find a way to cut $19.51 million to squeeze in Paul’s $38.51 million salary for 2019-20 as well as the fact the Wolves are projected to be over next season’s cap.

Because of that, a package would also have to include either Karl-Anthony Towns or Andrew Wiggins, neither of which are preferable options for Minnesota to depart with.

Still, the most realistic trade that Minnesota would make would be as follows:

As unrealistic as this trade seems (and probably is) it’s the best option for both teams. Minnesota could give Teague, Wiggins and one of the players that they acquired during this summer’s free agency period, but all of that seems a little much for Minnesota to buy into for a player that’s only a guarantee for another year or two.

Of course, Oklahoma City could give Minnesota a few of those picks that they have, but those are still a few years away and Sam Presti seems to want to hoard those (for good reason).

So, the Thunder would have to throw in a few players to sweeten the deal, but in order to accomplish that transaction, Minnesota would have to increase its outgoing salary total. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Hamidou Diallo would be two nice pieces for Minnesota to add for the long-term, but also seem like players who the Thunder would be hesitant to part ways with.

Another aspect to consider when trying to decide whether or not the Timberwolves should make a move for Paul is to consider who they could get instead. While it’s possible that Paul would decline his player option and then sign for a lot less money, it’s more likely he takes the bag. Because of that, who else could the Timberwolves get?

While the 2020 free agent class seems a little dry on talent, the 2021 class is as stacked as last summer’s was, if not more. With names like LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and DeMar DeRozan on the market, it’s possible for some of those second-tier players to slip under the radar.

One player who would fit that mold is J.J. Redick. A solid point guard who would be nearing the end of his career, Redick could be a solid mentor for Ja Morant. Patty Mills and Spencer Dinwiddie are also good options for Minnesota, if they can get away from their current teams.

Another option to consider is in Ja Morant. When the Memphis Grizzlies drafted him this summer, the hope was they’d be able to turn him into the point guard of the future. While he hasn’t had the best start to the season, the last few games have still shown some amazing potential in the young guard.

Because of all of this, it’s hard to see why Minnesota would make a move for Paul. It’s got nothing to do with CP3’s ability level, but rather the hefty price that Minnesota would have to pay is just too much when you take into account the other options that Minnesota could have.