Taking the points with New Orleans Pelicans the NBA odds play
By Phil Watson
Monday’s schedule features 9 games, but the NBA odds play of the day will be in New Orleans, where the Pelicans are getting 3 points at home against Utah.
The holiday season is officially over and the NBA schedule is going to settle into its annual January slog, which means there could be some results that defy logic or prediction. When looking at Monday’s NBA odds, there is a matchup between two hot teams that catches the eye.
According to information provided courtesy of The Action Network, the New Orleans Pelicans are getting three points at home Monday night from the visiting Utah Jazz as of this writing, a line that on the surface makes a lot of sense. Utah has won five in a row and 10 of its last 11 and is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games.
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But while the Pelicans are 14th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference, they’ve not been playing badly of late either. New Orleans has won five of its last six games, going 5-0-1 ATS in the process.
There is some question whether or not Jrue Holiday will go for the Pelicans Monday night as he is dealing with a left elbow bruise. And despite New Orleans’ less-than-ideal place in the current Western hierarchy, all is not lost as the Pelicans are just three games in back of the eighth-place San Antonio Spurs heading into play Monday night.
One of the more curious developments of the season is how well the Jazz have played without their big offseason acquisition, Mike Conley. Conley has sat out 13 of Utah’s last 14 games with a strained hamstring and the Jazz are 10-3 in those games.
They did win the game against the Magic on Dec. 17 when Conley returned, but left after 19 minute. He’s been out for Utah’s last eight games, a span during which the Jazz are 7-1.
As mentioned earlier … this is just curious.
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
TV: AT&T SportsNet-Rocky Mountain (Jazz), Fox Sports New Orleans (Pelicans)
Tickets: Smoothie King Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Utah 23-12 (18-17 ATS, 10-9 road ATS), New Orleans 12-24 (15-18-2 ATS, 8-9 home ATS)
Availability report (as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Sunday)
Utah: OUT–Jarrell Brantley (two-way, G League), Mike Conley (not with team), Miye Oni (G League), Nigel Williams-Goss (G League), Justin Wright-Foreman (two-way, G League).
New Orleans: OUT–Zylan Cheatham (two-way, G League), Josh Gray (two-way, G League), Darius Miller (right Achilles surgery), Zion Williamson (right knee scope); QUESTIONABLE–Jrue Holiday (left elbow contusion).
Here’s a look at the other eight games on tap for Monday.
Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets
TV: Fox Sports Indiana (Pacers), Fox Sports Southeast-Charlotte (Hornets)
Tickets: Spectrum Center, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Indiana 22-14 (18-15-3 ATS, 8-9 road ATS), Charlotte 15-23 (18-19-1 ATS, 8-10 home ATS)
Availability report
Indiana: OUT–Brian Bowen (two-way, G League), Malcolm Brogdon (sore lower back), Naz Mitrou-Long (right ankle sprain), Victor Oladipo (right knee rehab); QUESTIONABLE–T.J. McConnell (right ankle sprain).
Charlotte: OUT–Robert Franks (two-way, G League), Caleb Martin (G League), Jalen McDaniels (G League), Kobi Simmons (two-way, G League).
Notable: These teams have been fairly similar over each of their last 10 games, with the Indiana Pacers going 5-5 ATS and the Charlotte Hornets checking in at 4-5-1 ATS. Is there an advantage to be gained by being at home? Maybe not. The Hornets are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four at home, but Indiana has covered just once in its last four on the road.
Looking a bit closer, though, and you find the Pacers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Charlotte is 2-4 ATS in their last six. Not exactly the fight of the century. The teams have split two meetings this season, with the Hornets getting a 122-120 win at home as 2½-point underdogs on Nov. 5 and Indiana covering as 11½-point favorites in a 107-85 win at Indianapolis on Dec. 15.
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic
TV: YES (Nets), Fox Sports Florida (Magic)
Tickets: Amway Center, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Brooklyn 16-18 (16-18 ATS, 7-11 road ATS), Orlando 16-20 (15-19-2 ATS, 7-11-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Brooklyn: OUT–Chris Chiozza (two-way, G League), Kevin Durant (right Achilles rehab), Kyrie Irving (right shoulder impingement), Caris LeVert (right thumb surgery injury management); PROBABLE–Nicolas Claxton (left hamstring soreness), DeAndre Jordan (right knee contusion).
Orlando: OUT–Al-Farouq Aminu (right knee, torn meniscus), Michael Carter-Williams (left shoulder, AC joint sprain), Jonathan Isaac (left knee, posterior lateral corner injury/medial bone contusion), B.J. Johnson (two-way, G League).
Notable: The Brooklyn Nets have hit a slide, losing five in a row while failing to cover in every one of them. The Nets are on the road for this one, where they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six away from home. The Orlando Magic, meanwhile, are 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games and have covered three of the last five times they’ve played at Amway Center.
Brooklyn got Caris LeVert back on Saturday after he had been out 24 games after thumb surgery, but he will he held out for injury maintenance Monday (they don’t want him to run too much on that thumb, apparently). This is their first matchup this season, with Orlando going 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings even as the Nets won two of the three games straight up.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers
TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma (Thunder), NBC Sports Philadelphia (76ers), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Wells Fargo Center, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Oklahoma City 20-15 (23-12 ATS, 12-5 road ATS), Philadelphia 23-14 (17-19-1 ATS, 9-8-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Oklahoma City: OUT–Luguentz Dort (two-way, G League), Kevin Hervey (two-way, G League), Nerlens Noel (left ankle sprain), Andre Roberson (left knee injury recovery).
Philadelphia: OUT–Norvel Pelle (two-way, G League), Marial Shayok (two-way, G League), Zhaire Smith (G League), Matisse Thybulle (right knee sprain/bone bruise).
Notable: The Philadelphia 76ers return home from an 0-4 road trip during which they covered just once, while the Oklahoma City Thunder come to Philly on an absolute tear. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have covered in each of their last four road contests. While Philadelphia is 16-2 at home, they are just 2-2 ATS in their last four at Wells Fargo Center.
The 76ers have actually lost 10 consecutive games at home to Oklahoma City, a run that extends back beyond the beginning of The Process and continues into the franchise’s return to prominence. The Thunder are 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings with Philadelphia, winning two of the three straight up as well.
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
TV: NBC Sports Boston (Celtics), NBC Sports Washington (Wizards)
Tickets: Capital One Arena, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Boston 25-8 (20-11-2 ATS, 11-5-1 road ATS), Washington 11-24 (17-17-1 ATS, 7-9 home ATS)
Availability report
Boston: OUT–Tacko Fall (two-way, G League), Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture), Kemba Walker (illness), Robert Williams (left hip, bone edema); QUESTIONABLE–Romeo Langford (illness).
Washington: OUT–Davis Bertans (right quad strain), Thomas Bryant (stress reaction, right foot), Rui Hachimura (groin injury), C.J. Miles (left wrist surgery), Justin Robinson (not with team), Moritz Wagner (sprained left ankle), John Wall (left Achilles rehab), Johnathan Williams (not with team); QUESTIONABLE–Bradley Beal (lower right leg soreness), Ian Mahinmi (right finger injury).
Notable: The Boston Celtics should be on high alert as the injury-riddled Washington Wizards have double-digit straight-up victories the last two times they’ve hosted a team with a record above .500. most recently hammering the Nuggets on Saturday night by 14. Boston is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games and have won eight of their last nine straight up.
Washington, on the other hand, is just 2-4 ATS in their last six games at home, but both of those covers were against top-level competition in the Heat and the Nuggets. Kemba Walker will be out again for the Celtics with an illness, while there is a 50/50 shot the Wizards will have Bradley Beal, who has missed four of their last five games with soreness in his right leg.
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks
TV: Altitude Sports 2 (Nuggets), Fox Sports Southeast-Atlanta (Hawks)
Tickets: State Farm Arena, 7:30 p.m. local (7:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Denver 24-11 (14-18-3 ATS, 7-8-1 road ATS), Atlanta 8-28 (16-20 ATS, 9-7 home ATS)
Availability report
Denver: OUT–Bol Bol (left foot injury management), PJ Dozier (two-way, G League), Jarred Vanderbilt (G League).
Atlanta: OUT–Charlie Brown (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–John Collins (back contusion), Jabari Parker (throat infection), Cam Reddish (right wrist sprain); PROBABLE–DeAndre’ Bembry (right elbow contusion/right hip contusion), Damian Jones (right adductor tension).
Notable: Such is the nature of NBA handicapping that the Atlanta Hawks have been a better bet this season than the Denver Nuggets. The Hawks, 8-28 straight up, are 16-20 ATS; Denver, 24-11 straight up, are just 14-18-3 SU. And the Nuggets are trending the wrong direction, going just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Atlanta has covered each of its last three games — winning two of them outright — since breaking a 10-game losing streak. The Hawks have also covered in each of Denver’s last five visits to State Farm Arena. There could be a revenge factor at play; Atlanta handed the Nuggets an ugly 125-121 loss on Nov. 12 in Denver as 10½-point underdogs.
Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks
TV: NBC Sports Chicago (Bulls), Fox Sports Southwest-Dallas (Mavericks)
Tickets: American Airlines Center, 7:30 p.m. local (8:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Chicago 13-23 (18-18 ATS, 9-7 road ATS), Dallas 22-13 (19-16 ATS, 7-11 home ATS)
Availability report
Chicago: OUT–Otto Porter (left foot fracture), Max Strus (left knee, ACL injury); DOUBTFUL–Lauri Markkanen (left ankle sprain), QUESTIONABLE–Adam Mokoka (right eyelid swelling); PROBABLE–Ryan Arcidiacono (right elbow discomfort), Wendell Carter Jr. (abdomen maintenance/right ankle sprain), Zach LaVine (left ankle sprain).
Dallas: OUT–Ryan Broekhoff (left fibula fracture), Kristaps Porzingis (right knee soreness); QUESTIONABLE–Tim Hardaway Jr. (left hamstring strain).
Notable: The Chicago Bulls has been a fairly reliable cover until recently, when they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Of course, the Dallas Mavericks have been much the same with a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven and they have just one cover in their last six games at home. The Bulls have still been really solid as a road pick, covering six of their last seven as the visitor.
In a scheduling anomaly, these teams did not play at all in 2019 (both of last season’s games were in the 2018 part of the schedule) and are meeting for the first time this season. Dallas has covered two of the last three times it has played Chicago, winning two outright as well. The Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight matchups with the Mavericks.
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs
TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin (Bucks), Fox Sports Southwest-San Antonio (Spurs)
Tickets: AT&T Center, 7:30 p.m. local (8:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Milwaukee 32-5 (21-16 ATS, 10-7 road ATS), San Antonio 14-20 (12-21-1 ATS, 5-14 home ATS)
Availability report
Milwaukee: OUT–Dragan Bender (G League), Pat Connaughton (right thigh contusion), Frank Mason (two-way, G League), Cameron Reynolds (two-way, G League); PROBABLE–Giannis Antetokounmpo (back soreness), George Hill (illness), D.J. Wilson (left finger sprain).
San Antonio: OUT–Drew Eubanks (two-way, G League), Keldon Johnson (G League), Chimezie Metu (G League), Luka Samanic (G League), Quinndary Weatherspoon (two-way, G League).
Notable: These teams are on the back end of a home-and-home set, with the Milwaukee Bucks getting the 127-118 win, but the San Antonio Spurs covering as 12-point underdogs, in Cream City on Saturday. The Bucks have covered three of their last four on the road, while San Antonio is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games at home.
The Spurs are, however, 6-3 ATS in their last nine games and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against Milwaukee, even though they have just one straight-up win to show for it. The Bucks will be without bench spark Pat Connaughton on Monday, while Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to show up on the injury report with a sore back before going out and lighting someone else up.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area (Warriors), NBC Sports California (Kings), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Golden 1 Center, 7 p.m. local (10 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Golden State 9-28 (17-19-1 ATS, 9-10 road ATS), Sacramento 13-23 (18-18 ATS, 6-11 home ATS)
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Availability report
Golden State: OUT–Stephen Curry (left hand fracture), Draymond Green (right ankle sprain), Kevon Looney (left abdominal soreness), D’Angelo Russell (right shoulder contusion), Klay Thompson (left ACL rehabilitation).
Sacramento: OUT–Marvin Bagley III (left foot sprain), Kyle Guy (two-way, G League), DaQuan Jeffries (two-way, G League); DOUBTFUL–Bogdan Bogdanovic (right ankle soreness).
Notable: While the Golden State Warriors haven’t been terrible against the number lately, they are still just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and haven’t covered in their last five games against Monday’s opponent, the Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has its own issues, going 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, losing nine of those 10 straight up and covering just once in its last nine at home.
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The first meeting between the Northern California rivals was all Kings, as they blasted Golden State 100-79 as 4½-point road favorites in the team’s first visit to the Warriors’ new San Francisco home on Dec. 15. The problem for Sacramento is the club has won just once since getting that blowout victory.