Why Miami Heat should not pursue Chris Paul trade

The Miami Heat have no business trading for Chris Paul. It would weaken their depth and cripple their salary cap situation.

The rumors of the Miami Heat trading for Chris Paul go back to last summer. Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald reported in early June that Miami was likely to talk to the Houston Rockets about some of their players, Paul among them. Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports reported that the Heat declined to take Paul in July.

"Before trading Russell Westbrook to Oklahoma City, the Rockets tried to engage the Heat on a three-team deal to reroute Paul to Miami, but the Heat resisted, multiple sources told NBC Sports. The Heat’s desire for Westbrook was “a level above” their interest in Paul, according to one high-level source involved in those talks."

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The trade discussions around Paul started the second he was traded to the rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder. The team looked to trade Paul as soon as they acquired him and there was a belief that Paul would be traded before the season started, but no deal materialized.

The 34-year-old Paul has remained with the Thunder, starting all 33 of their games this season while averaging a career-low 31.5 minutes per game. He’s averaging 16.6 points, 6.5 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game.

Although he’s averaging his fourth-fewest points and lowest assists per game averages of his career, Paul has stepped up his scoring efficiency. His percentages from the field (46.8 percent), 3-point range (37.4), and the free-throw line (90.6) rank eighth, sixth, and second in his career respectively.

Paul has taken up a mentor role with the Thunder, according to CBS Sports’ Colin Ward-Henninger. Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan has complimented Paul on his willingness to buy into the rebuilding environment.

"“He’s made an incredible investment into (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). He’s made an incredible investment into (Darius Bazley), (Abdel Nader). All those guys, he’s constantly, I think, giving them his wisdom, his experiences. And I really appreciate him doing that because I think that can be really, really helpful for a lot of these guys.“To have a combination of so many young players and then to have a veteran like him, he’s done a really, really great job with that.”"

Despite Paul and the Thunder meshing rather well, there are certainly better places for the nine-time All-Star. The Thunder won’t be competing for an NBA title anytime soon and the clock is ticking on Paul’s career.

It’s also best for Oklahoma City to move on from him, too. His trade value isn’t too high because of his hefty contract ($124 million over three seasons, including 2019-20), but he could still net them some assets in a trade. At the very least, the Thunder’s books would be free of his contract.

Paul isn’t what he used to be but he is still a very productive player. He’s one of 13 players to average at least 16.0 points, 6.0 assists and 4.5 rebounds; among this group, he ranks sixth in win shares. He’s also one of four players with at least 500 minutes of playing time to average shooting splits of 45-37-90; he has the most win shares among this group.

Paul would undoubtedly be an impact player for Miami, but the Heat should not pursue a trade for him.

For starters, the Miami Heat has exceeded expectations so far this season. The team doesn’t seem to be in need of any major trade. They have the league’s fourth-best record and are enjoying strong years from multiple young players, some of whom were undrafted.

Admittedly, the success of this team will be determined in how they fare in the playoffs rather than just their regular-season record. The Heat may need more firepower to make a playoff run, but they need to play in the playoffs before declaring that they need to make a big move. Miami won’t know for certain what they need to go further in the playoffs until they actually play in them.

Another issue with trading for Paul is that the Heat would sacrifice their future cap space. The 2020 free agency class is weak but the 2021 class, headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo, could include multiple stars.

It’s nearly impossible to say which destination will be the most attractive, but Miami will likely be near the top of the list. They’re a stable organization with a tremendous and respected coach and a team comprised of promising youngsters and reliable veterans. The city of Miami is the cherry on top.

Miami currently has just $60 million committed to the 2021-22 season. Current estimates put the salary cap for the summer of 2021 at $125 million, giving Miami around $65 million in cap space. That figure doesn’t include extensions for some of their key players.

Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. are unrestricted free agents after this season. Jones will be signed to more than his current $1.6 million salary, Dragic will likely be signed to less than his $19 million salary and Leonard will probably be signed in the ballpark of his current $11 million salary. These new contracts would lessen Miami’s cap space for 2021.

To maximize the cap space they’ll have in 2021, Miami could ask Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn to hold off on extensions. All three would be restricted free agents in the summer of 2021, so Miami could match any offer they get.

Miami also has Bird rights on all three, meaning they can go over the cap to sign them. It could prove tough to ask these young players to wait for their extensions after being key players on a playoff team, though.

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The Heat would jeopardize $41 million in cap space if they were to acquire Paul. The salary cap problems that Paul’s contract would cause are exacerbated considering his age. As he travels further past the wrong side of 30, his production will dip.

Even right now, despite his level of production, Paul is overpaid. He’s not worth $38 million right now, won’t be worth $41 million next year and won’t be worth $44 million in two years.

Sacrificing cap space that can be used on free agents in 2021 for Chris Paul would be an absolutely horrendous decision. As long as the Heat keep playing like they have all season and don’t fall apart next season, they’ll likely be a premier free-agent destination.

Even if all the prospective 2021 free agents sign extensions and the pool dries up, having that cap space will still be better than committing $41 million to Paul for next season. It will give Miami more flexibility to make trades and resign their current core.

Paul’s contract for the next three seasons is the second-highest in the league and his production is not worth it. Trading for him would suggest Miami’s front office has tremendous faith in their current young players to develop. No matter how much faith they have in the team, the Heat should not trade for Chris Paul.