The Miami Heat have been money in the NBA odds bank this season, but much better at home. Even favored by 9½ at battered Wizards, it’s a good call.
When looking at Monday’s NBA odds, it’s one of those schedules where there’s a reason not to pick every game. Big road favorites are scary because strange things happen in road games. But according to information courtesy of The Action Network, the Miami Heat are favored by 9½ points at DC as they take on the battered Washington Wizards and that seems to be a safe play.
Washington is down two starters once again (three if you count John Wall, who’s been out more than a year now), with Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura both out. Leading scorer Bradley Beal is listed as questionable with a right lower leg issue and Hachimura’s replacement, Davis Bertans, is now also sidelined.
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Conversely, the Heat are as healthy as they’ve been all season, with only Justise Winslow — who will miss his 12th straight game with a bone bruise in his lower back — still out of action.
Miami has been money in the bank this season at a very profitable 19-12-1 against the spread (second-best conversion rate in the NBA behind Oklahoma City’s 20-12). But while the Heat are almost a lock every time they play at home, they are just 8-7-1 ATS away from South Beach.
But the Wizards are basically playing with about half a roster and are only 5-7 ATS at home this season.
The Heat have won five straight games overall, but are 2-2-1 ATS in that span and have either not covered in three straight games. Washington is 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games and have not covered any of their last three home games.
This is the second meeting between the teams, with the Wizards covering — just covering — as 9½-point underdogs at Miami, losing a 112-103 decision on Dec. 6. Washington is 2-1 ATS in its last three against the Heat, despite losing all three games.
But the Wizards just have too much of their talent in street clothes. No offense to Gary Payton II, but if you’re having to give him 32 minutes a game just after you signed him out of the G League — his NBA career entering this season was 32 games and 336 minutes long since 2016-17 — it’s a sign things have gone from bad to desperate.
Miami Heat (minus 9½) at Washington Wizards
TV: Fox Sports Sun (Heat), NBC Sports Washington (Wizards)
Tickets: Capital One Arena, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Miami 24-8 (19-12-1 ATS, 8-7-1 road ATS), Washington 9-22 (15-15-1 ATS, 5-7 home ATS)
Availability Report (as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Sunday)
Miami: OUT–Daryl Macon (two-way, G League), KZ Okpala (G League), Justise Winslow (lower back, bone bruise).
Washington: OUT–Davis Bertans (right quad strain), Thomas Bryant (stress reaction, right foot), Rui Hachimura (groin), C.J. Miles (left wrist surgery), Moritz Wagner (sprained left ankle), John Wall (left Achilles rehab); QUESTIONABLE–Bradley Beal (lower right leg soreness).
As for the rest of Monday’s six-game NBA schedule …
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (minus 12)
TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Atlanta (Hawks), Fox Sports Florida (Magic), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Amway Center, 7 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Atlanta 6-27 (13-20 ATS, 5-13 road ATS), Orlando 14-18 (13-17-2 ATS, 6-9-1 home ATS)
Availability Report
Atlanta: OUT–Charlie Brown (two-way, G League), Trae Young (right ankle sprain); DOUBTFUL–Jabari Parker (right shoulder impingement); PROBABLE–Alex Len (left ankle sprain), Evan Turner (right hamstring strain).
Orlando: OUT–Al-Farouq Aminu (right knee, torn meniscus), Michael Carter-Williams (left shoulder, AC joint sprain), B.J. Johnson (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–Mo Bamba (right ankle sprain), Aaron Gordon (sore left Achilles).
Notable: To say the Atlanta Hawks are in a free fall right now would almost be an insult to the entire free-falling community. Atlanta has lost 10 straight games overall and have covered only twice in that span. Seven of those 10 losses have been by double-digits and four have been by 20 points or more, including each of their last two, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
Without leading scorer Trae Young, their prospects aren’t good Monday either. The Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last 10 and are 4-5-1 ATS in that span. Atlanta drew first blood in the four-game series for this season winning outright 103-99 as 2½-point home underdogs on Oct. 26. The Magic, however, have won two of the last three meetings and covered in each victory.
Milwaukee Bucks (minus 8) at Chicago Bulls
TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin (Bucks), NBC Sports Chicago (Bulls)
Tickets: United Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Milwaukee 29-5 (20-14 ATS, 9-7 road ATS), Chicago 13-20 (18-15 ATS, 9-8 home ATS)
Availability Report
Milwaukee: QUESTIONABLE–Giannis Antetokounmpo (back soreness); PROBABLE–Eric Bledsoe (right fibula, avulsion fracture).
Chicago: OUT–Otto Porter (left foot fracture), Max Strus (left knee, ACL injury); QUESTIONABLE–Cristiano Felicio (illness), Chandler Hutchison (right shoulder soreness), Lauri Markkanen (illness); PROBABLE–Ryan Arcidiacono (right elbow discomfort), Wendell Carter Jr. (left abdomen maintenance), Zach LaVine (right shoulder strain), Tomas Satoransky (left ankle soreness); AVAILABLE–Daniel Gafford (sutures in right side of face).
Notable: Reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed the last two games for the Milwaukee Bucks with a sore back. The Bucks have won by 26 and 11, covering both times, without their star. They are also likely to have Eric Bledsoe — who has been out for the last eight games with a shin injury.
This one is a tough call because the Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, but so too are the Chicago Bulls. Milwaukee is 3-1 ATS in their last four road games, but the Bulls have covered four of their last five at home. The teams met twice earlier, with the Bucks covering 8½ points in Chicago on Nov. 18 (115-101) and the Bulls covering 11½ as a road dog on Nov. 14.
Brooklyn Nets (minus 2½) at Minnesota Timberwolves
TV: YES Network (Nets), Fox Sports North (Timberwolves)
Tickets: Target Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Brooklyn 16-15 (16-15 ATS, 7-9 road ATS), Minnesota 11-20 (11-18-2 ATS, 2-11-1 home ATS)
Availability Report
Brooklyn: OUT–Nicolas Claxton (left hamstring soreness), Kevin Durant (right Achilles rehab), Kyrie Irving (right shoulder impingement), Caris LeVert (right thumb surgery), David Nwaba (right Achilles tear).
Minnesota: OUT–Jake Layman (left toe sprain), Jordan McLaughlin (two-way, G League), Jaylen Nowell (G League), Naz Reid (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Karl-Anthony Towns (left knee sprain), Andrew Wiggins (flu-like symptoms).
Notable: The Minnesota Timberwolves played without both Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins on Saturday and scored 88 points in a loss at home to the Cavaliers. Both are questionable with the Brooklyn Nets coming to Target Center on Monday. Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games with the Timberwolves and are 2-3 ATS in its last five road games.
But Minnesota at home? Woof. They are 2-11-1 ATS at Target Center and have failed to cover the last nine games there. They are also 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall (insert “notgreatbob.gif” here). Minnesota did win and cover the first meeting with the Nets in their season opener on Oct. 23, taking a 127-126 decision in overtime as 3½ point dogs in Brooklyn.
Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz (minus 10)
TV: Fox Sports Detroit (Pistons), AT&T SportsNet-Rocky Mountain (Jazz)
Tickets: Vivint Smart Home Arena, 7 p.m. local (9 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Detroit 12-21 (12-20-1 ATS, 4-10-1 road ATS), Utah 20-12 (15-17 ATS, 7-8 home ATS)
Availability Report
Detroit: OUT–Jordan Bone (two-way, G League), Reggie Jackson (stress reaction, left lumbar spine), Luke Kennard (bilateral patellar tendinitis), Markieff Morris (left foot sprain), Khyri Thomas (right foot surgery); DOUBTFUL–Blake Griffin (left knee soreness); QUESTIONABLE–Sekou Doumbouya (illness); PROBABLE–Tony Snell (illness).
Utah: OUT–Jarrell Brantley (two-way, G League), Mike Conley (left hamstring strain), Justin Wright-Foreman (two-way, G League).
Notable: The Detroit Pistons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, but have gone 2-2 ATS on the road in that span. Blake Griffin is doubtful and it would be his 16th missed game this season against just 18 games played. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. The Utah Jazz have been rolling pretty well of late, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
This will be the first of the two meetings between the teams this season, with Utah winning each of the last three while going 2-1 ATS. Looking a bit deeper, Detroit has just one cover in its last six games against the Jazz, going back over the last three seasons. Neither team has been particularly trustworthy ATS this season, but the Pistons are just 4-10-1 on the road on the year.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers (minus 4)
TV: Fox Sports Arizona (Suns), NBA Sports Northwest (Trail Blazers), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Moda Center, 7 p.m. local (10 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Phoenix 12-20 (17-14-1 ATS, 8-6 road ATS), Portland 14-19 (13-19-1 ATS, 6-9-1 home ATS)
Availability Report
Phoenix: OUT–Deandre Ayton (right ankle sprain), Jared Harper (two-way, G League), Jalen Lecque (G League); PROBABLE–Frank Kaminsky (right knee soreness).
Portland: OUT–Zach Collins (left shoulder dislocation), Rodney Hood (left Achilles tendon rupture), Shal Labissiere (left knee inflammation), Jusuf Nurkic (left leg fracture); QUESTIONABLE–Mario Hezonja (low back pain).
Notable: As has been the case for the Portland Trail Blazers most of the season, they will be thin up front on Momday with Skal Labissiere already ruled out because of a balky knee. This is a very deceptive matchup, with Portland going 5-5 over its last 10 games, while the Phoenix Suns have won just two of their last 10.
But ATS? The Suns are 4-5-1 in those 10 games, while the Blazers are only 3-6-1 in their last 10. Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last six games, however. The win/not-cover trend was in effect on Dec. 16 in Phoenix, where Portland won 111-110 and the Suns covered as 2½-point underdogs. In the teams’ last three meeting, the Blazers are 3-0 overall, but 1-2 ATS.