Houston Rockets at New Orleans the right NBA odds play
By Phil Watson
The Houston Rockets have been playing backwards of late, with better results on the road than at home. So they’re a good NBA odds play Sunday at New Orleans.
With the NBA’s five-game schedule for Sunday, it’s difficult to find a good NBA odds play. The Raptors are on a road-home back-to-back against a team that’s been waiting for them to get back to Canada. The Grizzlies are in the same situation. The Nuggets and Lakers aren’t the most trustworthy homecourt picks of late either.
Throw in the fact that, thanks to Saturday’s 14-game slate, eight of the 10 teams playing Sunday are on SEGABABAs and …. yeah.
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So that leaves us with just one game, but it’s a good one. The surging New Orleans Pelicans, winners of three straight, host the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Houston has won five of its last six and has been doing it in reverse. The Rockets have won five of their last six on the road and are 4-2 against the spread in those games. They’ve split their last four home games, going 1-3 ATS.
So take the Rockets are lay the 4½ points on the road, according to point-spread information provided courtesy of The Action Network. New Orleans is another team that’s been a bit backward, with Saturday night’s win over the Pacers the first at Smoothie King Arena for the Pelicans since Nov. 19. They had lost eight straight at home before getting the win Saturday.
Both teams are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, but the bottom line is that Houston is a better team and is playing better on the road than they are at home lately, much like the Pelicans. Backward logic applies when dealing with teams trending 180 degrees from the norm.
The Rockets have won the first two meetings with New Orleans this season, but the Pelicans have covered each time. Houston won at home 126-123 as 12-point favorites on Oct. 26 and won at NOLA 122-116 on Nov. 11 as 7½-point favorites.
Houston Rockets (minus 4½) at New Orleans Pelicans
TV: AT&T SportsNet-Southwest (Rockets), Fox Sports New Orleans (Pelicans)
Tickets: Smoothie King Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Houston 22-10 (16-16 ATS, 9-8 road ATS). New Orleans 10-23 (13-18-1 ATS, 7-9 home ATS)
Availability report (as of 8:30 p.m. Saturday)
Houston: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win over the Nets, Houston did not have Clint Capela (right heel contusion), Michael Frazier (two-way, G League), Eric Gordon (right knee arthroscopy), Gerald Green (left cuneiform fracture), Nene (left adductor strain) or William Howard (two-way, G League).
New Orleans: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win over the Pacers, New Orleans was without Zylan Cheatham (two-way, G League), Josh Gray (two-way, G League), Darius Miller (right Achilles surgery) and Zion Williamson (right knee scope).
Taking a look at the rest of Sunday’s schedule, we have:
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors (minus 3)
TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma (Thunder), SportsNet1 (Raptors)
Tickets: Scotiabank Arena, 6 p.m. local (6 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Oklahoma City 16-15 (19-12 ATS, 9-5 road ATS), Toronto 22-10 (17-13-1 ATS, 10-6 home ATS)
Availability report
Oklahoma City: OUT–Hamidou Diallo (right elbow hyperextension sprain), Danilo Gallinari (left ankle soreness), Justin Patton (G League), Andre Roberson (left knee injury recovery), Dennis Schroder (right ankle soreness).
Toronto: Not required to submit report until 1 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win at Boston, the Raptors did not have Marc Gasol (left hamstring strain), Dewan Hernandez (right ankle sprain), Shamorie Ponds (two-way, G League), Norman Powell (left shoulder subluxation), Pascal Siakam (groin strain) or Matt Thomas (left middle finger fracture).
Notable: If a game could come with those orange traffic signs indicating danger ahead, this one would have them. The Oklahoma City Thunder are somewhat rested, having played on Friday, and face a Toronto Raptors club that is on a road-home SEGABABA. But the Thunder are without Danilo Gallinari and Dennis Schroder, while Toronto doesn’t have Pascal Siakam or Marc Gasol.
Oklahoma City is 13-7 ATS over its last 20 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Raptors are 6-2 ATS over their last eight games, but have covered only three of the last six times they’ve been at Scotiabank Arena. It’s the first meeting of the season for the two teams; the Thunder have won and covered two of the last three times they’ve played Toronto.
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies (minus 3½)
TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Charlotte (Hornets), Fox Sports Southeast-Memphis (Grizzlies)
Tickets: FexEdForum, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Charlotte 13-21 (16-17-1 ATS, 8-8-1 road ATS), Memphis 12-21 (15-17-1 ATS, 8-10 home ATS)
Availability report
Charlotte: OUT–Robert Franks (two-way, G League), Caleb Martin (G League), Jalen McDaniels (G League), Kobi Simmons (two-way, G League).
Memphis: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win over the Pacers, Memphis was without Andre Iguodala (not with team), Josh Jackson (G League), John Konchar (two-way, G League) and Yuta Watanabe (two-way, G League).
Notable: This is the other game on Sunday’s schedule where a team is coming home for a SEGABABA against an opponent that didn’t play Saturday and had already arrived in the city. While the Charlotte Hornets are 1-5 straight up in their last six games, they are 2-3-1 ATS in that span and have covered three of their last five on the road.
The Memphis Grizzlies are 3-2-1 ATS over their last six despite being just 2-4 straight up. These teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 13, with the Grizzlies coming away with a 119-117 win as 2½-point underdogs, but the Hornets have won two of the last three and the teams have split ATS at 1-1-1 over those contests.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (minus 9½)
TV: NBC Sports California (Kings), Altitude Sports (Nuggets)
Tickets: Pepsi Center, 6 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Sacramento 12-20 (16-16 ATS, 11-7 road ATS), Denver 22-9 (13-15-3 ATS, 7-9-2 home ATS)
Availability report
Sacramento: Not required to submit report until 3 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s loss to the Suns, Sacramento did not have Marvin Bagley III (left foot soreness), De’Aaron Fox (back spasms), Kyle Guy (two-way, G League) or DaQuan Jeffries (two-way, G League).
Denver: Not required to submit report until 3 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win over the Grizzlies, Denver was without Bol Bol (left foot injury management), PJ Dozier (two-way, G League) and Paul Millsap (left quadricep contusion).
Notable: There are soooooo many things to just hate about this matchup. The Sacramento Kings are 0-6 ATS over their last six games, but are still 11-7 ATS on the road. The Denver Nuggets have won six of their last seven games at home, but are 2-3-2 ATS over that span and are just 7-9-2 ATS at Pepsi Center this season. Dig a hole, bury this game and save your cash for something else.
The Kings come in on a home-road SEGABABA, while Denver is also on a SEGABABA, but is playing both games at home. This is the third meeting between the teams this season. The Nuggets won the first game at home 101-94 as five-point favorites on Oct. 28, with the Kings winning and covering 100-97 at four-point underdogs at Sacramento on Nov. 30.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (minus 3½)
TV: Spectrum Sportsnet (Lakers), ESPN (national)
Tickets: Staples Center, 6:30 p.m. local (9:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Dallas 21-10 (18-13 ATS, 12-3 road ATS), Los Angeles 25-7 (17-14 ATS, 8-6 home ATS)
Availability report
Dallas: Not required to submit report until 4 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win at Golden State, the Mavericks did not have Antonius Cleveland (two-way, G League), Josh Reaves (two-way, G League) or Isaiah Roby (right plantar fascia).
Los Angeles: Not required to submit report until 4 p.m. Eastern. In Saturday’s win at Portland, the Lakers were without Kostas Antetokounmpo (two-way, G League), Devontae Cacok (two-way, G League) and Talen Horton-Tucker (G League).
Notable: The Dallas Mavericks rolled to a 20-point win at Golden State on Saturday, topping the 140-point mark for the third time this season and the second against the Warriors. The Mavericks are the road coverage specialists with a 4-1 ATS mark over their last five away from home and a 12-3 ATS mark overall.
The Los Angeles Lakers did snap their four-game losing streak with a victory Saturday night, but are just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games and have one cover in their last three at Staples Center. Each team has a road win and cover this season. The Lakers won in Dallas 119-110 as one-point favorites on Nov. 1; the Mavs returned the favor on Dec. 1, 114-100 as 6½-point dogs.