NBA odds say take Miami Heat at home, even against 76ers

The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are both on SEGABABAs in Saturday’s 14-game slate, but the NBA odds say the Heat giving one point at home is the play.

The Miami Heat have the best home record in the NBA at 14-1, a half-game better than the 13-1 Celtics. The Philadelphia 76ers are just 7-9 on the road, including a loss at Orlando on Friday night. According to information provided courtesy of The Action Network, the Heat are one-point favorites Saturday night when they host Philadelphia and that is an easy NBA odds play to make.

On a night when 28 of the 30 teams in the Association are playing, Philadelphia at Miami is one of two matchups Saturday in which both teams are on a SEGABABA (Orlando at Milwaukee is the other). But it’s Miami’s home record that makes the difference. The Heat are 11-4 against the spread at home, while the 76ers are 7-9 ATS on the road.

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And because it’s the back end of a road-road back-to-back for the Sixers, there’s always the prospect of resting the fragile Joel Embiid, which slides Al Horford to the center spot and shifts one of the team’s few good bench options in Mike Scott into the starting unit.

Throw in Philadelphia being without rookie 3-and-D ace Matisse Thybulle against Miami’s eighth-ranked offense and the Heat become an even easier selection.

Here’s something to chew on as well: The 76ers have the sixth-rated defense in the NBA, allowing 104.4 points per 100 possessions, but on the road that number swells to 107.6. Miami, on the other hand, has a 110.7 offensive rating on the season, but the number grows to 115.7 when the Heat play at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The teams split their two meetings at Philadelphia this season, with the 76ers winning and covering the 5½ points they were favored by in a 113-86 romp on Nov. 23 and the Heat getting revenge with a 108-104 win as eight-point underdogs on Dec. 18, which was the first loss at home for the Sixers this season.

So take Miami, with confidence (annnnnnnnd the Heat are now doomed).

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (minus 1)

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia (76ers), Fox Sports Sun (Heat)
Tickets: AmericanAirlines Arena, 8 p.m. local and Eastern
Records: Philadelphia 23-11 (16-17-1 ATS, 7-9 road ATS), Miami 23-8 (19-11-1 ATS, 11-4 home ATS)

Availability report
Philadelphia: Not required to submit report until 1 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s loss at Orlando, the 76ers did not have Jonah Bolden (G League), Marial Shayok (two-way, G League), Zhaire Smith (G League) or Matisse Thybulle (right knee sprain/bone bruise).
Miami: Not required to submit report until 1 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s win over the Pacers, Miami was without Daryl Macon (two-way, G League), KZ Okpala (G League) and Justise Winslow (lower back bone bruise).

Here’s a look at the rest of Saturday’s bloated schedule.

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets (minus 8½)

TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Memphis (Grizzlies), Altitude Sports (Nuggets)
Tickets: Pepsi Center, 3 p.m. local (5 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Memphis 12-20 (15-17 ATS, 7-7 road ATS), Denver 21-9 (13-15-2 ATS, 7-9-1 home ATS)

Availability report (from NBA list released at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday)
Memphis: OUT–Andre Iguodala (not with team), Josh Jackson (G League), John Konchar (two-way, G League), Yuta Watanabe (two-way, G League).
Denver: OUT–Bol Bol (left foot injury management), PJ Dozier (two-way, G League); QUESTIONABLE–Paul Millsap (left quadricep contusion).

Notable: Two teams that appear to be on different strata in the NBA, with the Memphis Grizzlies only 12-20 and the Denver Nuggets 21-9, but each is trending 180 degrees the other direction.

The Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games while Denver is just 1-4-1 in its last six contests, even with a 5-1 record straight up and just 2-3-1 ATS while winning five of its last six at home. Memphis is 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Nuggets, but it was Denver that got the win and the 6½-point cover as road favorites with a 131-114 win at Memphis on Nov. 17.

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics (minus 6)

TV: TSN /TSN4 (Raptors), NBC Sports Boston (Celtics)
Tickets: TD Garden, 7 p.m. local and Eastern
Records: Toronto 21-10 (16-13-1 ATS, 6-7-1 road ATS), Boston 22-7 (18-9-2 ATS, 9-4-1 home ATS)

Availability report
Toronto: OUT–Marc Gasol (left hamstring strain), Dewan Hernandez (right ankle sprain), Shamorie Ponds (two-way, G League), Norman Powell (left shoulder subluxation), Pascal Siakam (groin strain), Matt Thomas (left middle finger fracture).
Boston: Not required to submit report until 1 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s win over the Cavaliers, Boston did not have Tacko Fall (two-way, G League), Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture), Marcus Smart (left eye infection) or Robert Williams (left hip, bone edema).

Notable: While the Toronto Raptors are 5-2 in their last seven games, one of the two non-covers came as the battered Raps were blown out at home by Saturday’s opponent, the Boston Celtics, on Christmas Day. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS over their last five — all straight-up wins — and have covered each of the last five times they’ve faced Toronto at TD Garden.

Boston has won and covered both meetings with the Raptors this season. Besides the 118-102 road win on Wednesday, the Celtics had a 112-106 win as 2½-point home favorites on Oct. 25. Boston is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, while Toronto has covered two of its last four games outside of Canada.

Indiana Pacers (minus 1) at New Orleans Pelicans

TV: Fox Sports Indiana (Pacers), Fox Sports New Orleans (Pelicans)
Tickets: Smoothie King Center, 6 p.m. local (7 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Indiana 21-11 (17-12-3 ATS, 8-7 road ATS), New Orleans 9-23 (12-18-1 ATS, 6-9 home ATS)

Availability report
Indiana: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s loss at Miami, the Pacers were without Brian Bowen (two-way, G League), Malcolm Brogdon (sore left hamstring), Naz Mitrou-Long (two-way, G League) and Victor Oladipo (right knee rehab).
New Orleans: OUT–Zylan Cheatham (two-way, G League), Josh Gray (two-way, G League), Darius Miller (right Achilles surgery), Zion Williamson (right knee scope).

Notable: The Indiana Pacers are 6-2 ATS over their last eight games, but are on a SEGABABA after losing at Miami Friday night. The New Orleans Pelicans have had two days off since stunning Denver on Christmas Day and have won three of their last four after a franchise-record 13-game losing streak, going 3-1 ATS over that span.

This is the first meeting between the Pacers and Pelicans this season and with New Orleans in particular being an almost entirely new ball club from what it was in 2018-19, the history may not be quite as relevant. Indiana is 2-1 straight up in their last three clashes with the Pelicans, who have gone 2-1 ATS. Beware: New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six at home.

New York Knicks (minus 2½) at Washington Wizards

TV: MSG Network (Knicks), NBC Sports Washington+ (Wizards)
Tickets: Capital One Arena, 8 p.m. local and Eastern
Records: New York 8-24 (16-16 ATS, 9-7 road ATS), Washington 9-21 (15-14-1 ATS, 5-6 home ATS)

Availability report
New York: OUT–Ignas Brazdeikis (G League), Reggie Bullock (cervical disc herniation), Ivan Rabb (two-way, G League), Dennis Smith Jr. (strained left oblique); QUESTIONABLE–Wayne Ellington (sore left Achilles), Mitchell Robinson (sprained left greater toe).
Washington: OUT–Davis Bertans (right quad strain), Thomas Bryant (stress reaction, right foot), Rui Hachimura (groin injury), C.J. Miles (left wrist surgery), Moritz Wagner (sprained left ankle), John Wall (left Achilles rehab); QUESTIONABLE–Bradley Beal (lower right leg soreness).

Notable: The New York Knicks and Washington Wizards meet for the second time this week after the Wizards picked up a 121-115 win as 3½-point road dogs at New York on Monday. But the Knicks have actually played pretty well of late, winning four of their last 10 and going 6-4 ATS in that span. It’s been a scuffle for Washington; 2-8 straight up in its last 10 with four covers.

New York is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 meetings with the Wizards, but the Knicks have covered in two of the last three meetings and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road. Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games and have covered just once in their last five contests at Capital One Arena.

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls (minus 9½)

TV: Fox Sports Southeast-Atlanta (Hawks), NBC Sports Chicago (Bulls)
Tickets: United Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Atlanta 6-26 (13-19 ATS, 5-12 road ATS), Chicago 12-20 (17-15 ATS, 8-8 home ATS)

Availability report
Atlanta: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s loss to the Bucks, Atlanta did not have Charlie Brown (two-way, G League), Alex Len (left ankle sprain) or Jabari Parker (right shoulder impingement).
Chicago: OUT–Adam Mokoka (two-way, G League), Otto Porter (left foot fracture), Max Strus (two-way, G League); DOUBTFUL–Chandler Hutchison (right shoulder soreness); QUESTIONABLE–Cristiano Felicio (illness), Lauri Markkanen (illness); PROBABLE–Wendell Carter Jr. (left abdomen maintenance), Zach LaVine (right shoulder strain).

Notable: Is it bad the Atlanta Hawks got routed at home on the front end of a home-road back-to-back by a Bucks team that did not have the reigning NBA MVP? Because that seems pretty bad. Atlanta is in an absolute free fall right now, losing nine straight games straight up and going just 2-7 ATS in that span.

The Chicago Bulls are already 2-0 with a pair of covers against the Hawks this season, winning 113-93 at one-point underdogs at Atlanta on Nov. 6 and taking a 136-102 victory at 6½-point favorites at home on Dec. 11. The Bulls have been covering well of late, with a 4-1 ATS record over their last five games.

Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets (minus 9)

TV: YES Network (Nets), AT&T SportsNet-Southwest (Rockets)
Tickets: Toyota Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Brooklyn 16-14 (16-14 ATS, 7-8 road ATS), Houston 21-10 (15-16 ATS, 6-8 home ATS)

Availability report
Brooklyn: OUT–Nicolas Claxton (left hamstring soreness), Kevin Durant (right Achilles rehab), Kyrie Irving (right shoulder impingement), Caris LeVert (right thumb surgery), David Nwaba (right Achilles tear).
Houston: OUT–Eric Gordon (right knee arthroscopy), Gerald Green (left cuneiform fracture), Nene Hilario (left adductor strain); DOUBTFUL–Clint Capela (right heel contusion); QUESTIONABLE–Thabo Sefolosha (illness).

Notable: While the Brooklyn Nets enter this game having gone 8-4 ATS over its last 12 games, they are coming off a historically poor performance on Thursday in a loss to the Knicks. Brooklyn made only eight 2-point baskets in the game, the lowest total in the shot clock era (dating to 1954-55).

But the Houston Rockets have been a home jugger-not of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Toyota Center and they’re even worse against the Nets at home, failing to cover in five straight games. In the teams’ first meeting, it was Brooklyn getting a 123-116 victory as 4½-point home dogs back on Nov. 1.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves (minus 6½)

TV: Fox Sports Ohio (Cavaliers), Fox Sports North (Timberwolves)
Tickets: Target Center, 7 p.m. local (8 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Cleveland 9-22 (13-16-2 ATS, 6-8-1 road ATS), Minnesota 11-19 (11-17-2 ATS, 2-10-1 home ATS)

Availability report
Cleveland: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s loss at Boston, the Cavaliers were without Tyler Cook (two-way, G League), Dean Wade (two-way, G League) and Dylan Windler (stress reaction, left lower leg).
Minnesota: OUT–Jake Layman (left toe sprain), Jaylen Nowell (G League), Naz Reid (G League); QUESTIONABLE–Karl-Anthony Towns (left knee sprain).

Notable: The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered in four straight games, winning three of them straight up, and have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota finally ended its 11-game losing streak on Thursday, winning at Sacramento, but return home, where they are just 2-10-1 ATS and 3-10 straight up.

This is the first meeting this season between the Cavaliers and Timberwolves, with Minnesota winning two of the last three and Cleveland covering two of those games. The Timberwolves, as one might imagine with their recent losing skid, are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games. The Cavs are 5-5 ATS in their last 10.

Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks (minus 11)

TV: Fox Sports Florida (Magic), Fox Sports Wisconsin (Bucks)
Tickets: Fiserv Forum, 7:30 p.m. local (8:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Orlando 14-17 (13-16-2 ATS, 7-7-1 road ATS), Milwaukee 28-5 (19-14 ATS, 9-7 road ATS)

Availability report
Orlando: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s win over the 76ers, Orlando did not have Al-Farouq Aminu (right knee, torn meniscus), Mo Bamba (right ankle sprain), Michael Carter-Williams (left shoulder, sprained AC joint), B.J. Johnson (two-way, G League) or Josh Magette (two-way, G League).
Milwaukee: Not required to submit report until 2 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s win at Atlanta, the Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo (back soreness), Dragan Bender (G League), Eric Bledsoe (right fibula, avulsion fracture), Frank Mason (two-way, G League) and Cameron Reynolds (two-way, G League).

Notable: In the second of two SEGABABA vs. SEGABABA games, the Orlando Magic are on the back of a home-road pairing after beating the 76ers on Friday night, while the Milwaukee Bucks return home after a blowout win at Atlanta on Friday. The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo could very much impact this one, although Milwaukee won by 26 without him in Atlanta.

The Magic are 5-4-1 ATS over their last 10 games, while the Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Milwaukee has beaten Orlando twice straight up this season, with the Magic covering in a 110-101 loss at home on Dec. 9 after the Bucks cruised to a cover at Orlando on Nov. 1, 123-91. Milwaukee was favored by 4½ in the first meeting in November and 13 in the Dec. 9 game.

Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs (minus 4½)

TV: Fox Sports Detroit (Pistons), KENS (Spurs)
Tickets: AT&T Center, 7:30 p.m. local (8:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Detroit 12-20 (12-19-1 ATS, 4-9-1 road ATS), San Antonio 12-18 (10-19-1 ATS, 4-12 home ATS)

Availability report
Detroit: OUT–Jordan Bone (two-way, G League), Sekou Doumbouya (illness), Reggie Jackson (stress reaction, left lumbar spine), Luke Kennard (bilateral knee tendinitis), Markieff Morris (left foot sprain), Khyri Thomas (right foot surgery); PROBABLE–Andre Drummond (left calf contusion).
San Antonio: OUT–Drew Eubanks (two-way, G League), Keldon Johnson (G League), Chimezie Metu (G League), Luka Samanic (G League), Quinndary Weatherspoon (two-way, G League).

Notable: Two of the worst teams against the spread in the NBA this season square off, with the Detroit Pistons coming in 1-5 ATS in their last six games. However, the San Antonio Spurs have been good of late for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in their last five contests. The Spurs are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 after starting the season in a 5-15 funk against the number.

The Pistons won the first meeting between the teams in Detroit on Dec. 1, blowing out San Antonio as 2½-point home favorites in a 132-98 rout. But the Spurs are 2-1 ATS and straight up in the last three matchups with the Pistons and have gotten the cover in seven of the last 10 games against Detroit.

Dallas Mavericks (minus 11) at Golden State Warriors

TV: Fox Sports Southwest-Dallas (Mavericks), NBC Sports Bay Area (Warriors)
Tickets: Chase Center, 5:30 p.m. local (8:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Dallas 20-10 (17-13 ATS, 11-3 road ATS), Golden State 9-24 (16-16-1 ATS, 8-7-1 home ATS)

Availability report
Dallas: OUT–Antonius Cleveland (two-way, G League), Josh Reaves (two-way, G League), Isaiah Roby (right plantar fascia).
Golden State: Not required to submit report until 4 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s win over the Suns, Golden State did not have Stephen Curry (left hand fracture), Kevon Looney (left abdominal soreness), Eric Paschall (right hip contusion) or Klay Thompason (left ACL rehabilitation).

Notable: The Dallas Mavericks welcomed back 20-year-old MVP candidate Luka Doncic from a four-game absence due to an ankle injury getting the win but failing to cover against the Spurs at home on Thursday. The Mavs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games. The Golden State Warriors have won a season-best four straight games, covering in all four of them.

The first time the teams met, in Dallas on Nov. 20, the Mavericks handed Golden State a 142-94 smackdown at 14½-point favorites, the worst loss for the Warriors since a then-NBA record 63-point drubbing from the Lakers, 162-99 on March 19, 1972. That record fell on Dec. 17, 1991, when the Heat won at Cleveland 148-80 — a 68-point margin.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings (minus 2)

TV: Fox Sports Arizona (Suns), NBC Sports California (Kings)
Tickets: Golden 1 Center, 6 p.m. local (9 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Phoenix 11-20 (16-14-1 ATS, 7-6 road ATS), Sacramento 12-19 (16-15 ATS, 5-8 home ATS)

Availability report
Phoenix: Not required to submit report until 4 p.m. Eastern. In Friday’s loss at Golden State, the Suns were without Deandre Ayton (right ankle sprain), Jared Harper (two-way, G League) and Jalen Lecque (G League).
Sacramento: OUT–Marvin Bagley III (left foot soreness), Kyle Guy (two-way, G League), DaQuan Jeffries (two-way, G League); DOUBTFUL–De’Aaron Fox (back spasms).

Notable: The Phoenix Suns have lost eight in a row, while the Sacramento Kings proved to be the tonic the Timberwolves needed on Thursday to end their 11-game losing streak. The Kings won’t have Marvin Bagley III for this one and De’Aaron Fox is doubtful. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last five games, while Sacramento has failed to cover in each of its last five games.

The teams have played twice already this season, with the Suns getting a 124-95 win in Phoenix on Oct. 23 as one-point underdogs before the Kings won a 120-116 decision as three-point favorites in Sacramento on Nov. 19. The Suns are on a SEGABABA after a loss at Golden State on Friday; the Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last five at Golden 1 Center. Steer clear of this one.

Los Angeles Lakers (minus 4½) at Portland Trail Blazers

TV: Spectrum Sportsnet (Lakers), NBC Sports Northwest (Trail Blazers)
Tickets: Moda Center, 7 p.m. local (10 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Los Angeles 24-7 (16-14 ATS, 8-8 road ATS), Portland 14-18 (13-18-1 ATS, 6-8-1 home ATS)

Availability report
Los Angeles: OUT–Kostas Antetokounmpo (two-way, G League), Devontae Cacok (two-way, G League), DeMarcus Cousins (right knee rehabilitation), Talen Horton-Tucker (G League); QUESTIONABLE–LeBron James (groin contusion); PROBABLE–Anthony Davis (right knee soreness), Kyle Kuzma (left ankle sprain).
Portland: OUT–Zach Collins (left shoulder dislocation), Rodney Hood (left Achilles’ tendon rupture), Jusuf Nurkic (left leg fracture); QUESTIONABLE–Mario Hezonja (low back pain).

Notable: The Los Angeles Lakers are in a funk right now, losing four in a row straight up and failing to cover in each of their last six games. The Portland Trail Blazers have lost two consecutive games after a four-game winning streak, but are just 2-3-1 ATS in those six games. Portland has only covered one in the last five meetings with the Lakers at home.

That includes a 136-113 loss at Moda Center on Dec. 6 in which Los Angeles came in as 4½-point favorites. The Lakers have won two of the last three meetings with the Blazers straight up, covering in all three of those contests. An X-factor for L.A. is the health of LeBron James, who was listed as questionable on the initial injury report with a groin contusion. Ouch, babe.

Utah Jazz at LA Clippers (minus 8½)

TV: AT&T SportsNet-Rocky Mountain (Jazz), Fox Sports Prime Ticket (Clippers)
Tickets: Staples Center, 7:30 p.m. local (10:30 p.m. Eastern)
Records: Utah 19-12 (14-17 ATS, 7-9 road ATS), LA 23-10 (18-14 ATS, 10-5 home ATS)

Availability report
Utah: OUT–Jarrell Brantley (two-way, G League), Mike Conley (left hamstring strain), Miye Oni (G League), Nigel Williams-Goss (not with team), Justin Wright-Foreman (two-way, G League).
LA: No players listed.

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Notable: The LA Clippers are one of the best home teams in the NBA, at 14-2 overall and 10-5 ATS, but the Utah Jazz have been a stubborn out at Staples Center, covering in seven of their last nine meetings with the Clips. The Jazz have been good of late against the number, as well, going 3-1-1 in their last five games.

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LA is an identical 3-1-1 in its last five games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests. The Clippers got one of their rare home covers against Utah on Nov. 3, winning 105-94 as 4½-point favorites, while the Jazz got a 110-96 victory in Salt Lake City as six-point dogs on Oct. 30. The Clips are actually 11-5 ATS at Staples Center this season, counting their “road” win over the Lakers on Wednesday.