NBA odds: Take the points at home as Golden State Warriors host slumping Phoenix Suns
By Phil Watson
It’s an unusually light schedule Friday with 6 games, but the Golden State Warriors getting 3 points at home against the Suns is an easy NBA odds pick.
After getting charbroiled by the 76ers and Pistons on consecutive days, Friday’s light NBA slate was all about finding an NBA odds pick involving a home team. It just so happens there is one to be had between teams moving in drastically different directions of late, based on information provided courtesy of The Action Network.
Don’t look now, but the Golden State Warriors have won consecutive games for the first time this season, running their streak to three straight wins after stunning the Rockets on Christmas Day, and on Friday the Dubs play host to the free-falling Phoenix Suns, who have lost seven in a row and eight of their last nine.
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The really attractive feature to this is that the Warriors — who have posted half of their eight wins so far this season in their last nine games — are getting points at home. The Suns have been a stubborn cover of late, going 2-3-2 against the spread during their losing streak, but Golden State is 4-2 ATS over its last six games.
This will be the second and final meeting between Phoenix and the Warriors in San Francisco this season. The Suns came into Chase Center on Oct. 30 as 5½-point underdogs and left with a 121-110 straight-up win. That was during Phoenix’s 7-4 start, but the club is just 4-15 since that initial burst.
It’s deceptive to look any further back in the series between the Suns and Warriors, simply because outside of Draymond Green, these are not the Warriors who went to five consecutive NBA Finals.
But looking at the recent trends, taking Golden State and the three points at home looking like the pick for Friday.
Phoenix Suns (minus 3) at Golden State Warriors
TV: Fox Sports Arizona (Suns), NBC Sports Bay Area (Warriors), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Chase Center, 7:30 p.m. local
Records: Phoenix 11-19 (16-13-1 ATS, 7-5 road ATS), Golden State 8-24 (15-16-1 ATS, 7-7-1 home ATS)
Availability report (information from NBA report released as of 8:30 p.m. Thursday)
Phoenix: OUT–Deandre Ayton (right ankle sprain), Jared Harper (two-way, G League); PROBABLE–Kelly Oubre Jr. (right groin injury).
Golden State: OUT–Ky Bowman (two-way, G League), Stephen Curry (left hand fracture), Kevon Looney (left abdominal soreness), Klay Thompson (left ACL rehabilitation); QUESTIONABLE–Eric Paschall (right hip contusion).
Of the other five games, nine of the teams are playing their first games after Christmas, while one is playing a SEGABABA on the road.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (minus 14)
TV: Fox Sports Ohio (Cavaliers), NBC Sports Boston (Celtics), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: TD Garden, 4 p.m. local
Records: Cleveland 9-21 (12-16-2 ATS, 5-8-1 road ATS), Boston 21-7 (18-8-2 ATS, 9-3-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Cleveland: OUT–Tyler Cook (two-way, G League), Dean Wade (two-way, G League), Dylan Windler (stress reaction, left lower leg); QUESTIONABLE–Larry Nance Jr. (left knee soreness).
Boston: OUT–Tacko Fall (two-way, G League), Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture), Robert Williams (left hip, bone edema); QUESTIONABLE–Marcus Smart (left eye infection).
Notable: The Boston Celtics come into this one hot, winning eight of their last 10 overall and going 8-2 ATS over that span. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won three games in a row for the first time since winning five straight from March 28-April 5, 2018, … back when a guy named LeBron played in The Land.
But all three of those were at home for Cleveland, which has covered just once in its last five road games. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. The teams have played twice before, with a Nov. 5 game at Cleveland ending in a push after Boston won 119-113, with the Celtics covering as 13½-point favorites at home on Dec. 9.
Oklahoma City Thunder (minus 4½) at Charlotte Hornets
TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma (Thunder), Fox Sports Southeast-Charlotte (Hornets)
Tickets: Spectrum Center, 7 p.m. local
Records: Oklahoma City 15-15 (18-12 ATS, 8-5 road ATS), Charlotte 13-20 (16-16-1 ATS, 8-8 home ATS)
Availability report
Oklahoma City: Not required to submit until 1 p.m. Eastern on Friday. In Thursday’s 110-97 loss at home to the Grizzlies, the Thunder did not have Hamidou Diallo (right elbow hyperextension sprain), Luguentz Dort (two-way, G League), Danilo Gallinari (left ankle soreness), Justin Pattin (G League) or Andre Roberson (left knee injury recovery). Per the Associated Press, Gallinari will not accompany the team on the road trip to Charlotte on Friday and Toronto (Sunday).
Charlotte: OUT–Robert Franks (two-way, G League), Caleb Martin (G League), Jalen McDaniels (G League), Kobi Simmons (two-way, G League); PROBABLE–PJ Washington (right fifth finger fracture).
Notable: The Charlotte Hornets are likely to have PJ Washington back after the rookie missed five games with a fractured pinkie, while the Oklahoma City Thunder will not have Danilo Gallinari, one of three players on the club averaging at least 18 points per game. Advantage, Charlotte, as Washington was second on the team in 3-point percentage (40.6 percent) when he was hurt.
The Thunder had a four-game winning streak snapped by the Grizzlies on Thursday, but they are just 2-4 ATS over their last six games. Charlotte is 5-4-1 ATS over its last 10, including 2-2-1 at home during that stretch. These teams last met on Nov. 23, 2018, and Oklahoma City has won the last three meetings, going 2-1 ATS in the process.
Philadelphia 76ers (minus 4) at Orlando Magic
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia (76ers), Fox Sports Florida (Magic), NBA TV (national)
Tickets: Amway Center, 7 p.m. local
Records: Philadelphia 23-10 (16-16-1 ATS, 7-8 road ATS), Orlando 13-17 (12-16-2 ATS, 5-9-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Philadelphia: OUT–Jonah Bolden (G League), Marial Shayok (two-way, G League), Zhaire Smith (G League), Matisse Thybulle (right knee sprain/bone bruise).
Orlando: OUT–Al-Farouq Aminu (right knee, torn meniscus), Michael Carter-Williams (left shoulder, sprained AC joint), B.J. Johnson (two-way, G League), Josh Magette (two-way, G League).
Notable: The Philadelphia 76ers have won seven of their last 10 games, getting the cover five times in that span, and is 2-1 ATS in their last three on the road. The Orlando Magic are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10. The 76ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Orlando, but the Magic are just 2-6 in their last eight games at Amway Center.
The teams played once in Orlando already this season, with the Magic picking up a 112-97 win on Nov. 13 as 2½-point favorites in a game All-NBA big man Joel Embiid was held out by Philadelphia for injury maintenance on his sore left knee. Orlando has won two of the last three times they’ve played the 76ers and are 2-1 ATS as well.
Milwaukee Bucks (minus 12) at Atlanta Hawks
TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin (Bucks), Fox Sports Southeast-Atlanta (Hawks)
Tickets: State Farm Arena, 7:30 p.m. local
Records: Milwaukee 27-5 (18-14 ATS, 8-7 road ATS), Atlanta 6-25 (13-18 ATS, 8-6 home ATS)
Availability report
Milwaukee: OUT–Dragan Bender (G League), Eric Bledsoe (right fibula, avulsion fracture), Frank Mason (two-way, G League), Cameron Reynolds (two-way, G League); PROBABLE–Giannis Antetokounmpo (back soreness).
Atlanta: OUT–Charlie Brown (two-way, G League); DOUBTFUL–Alex Len (left ankle sprain); PROBABLE–Jabari Parker (right shoulder impingement), Evan Turner (right hamstring strain).
Notable: While the Milwaukee Bucks are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games, two of their five losses this season have come in the last 10 days, including getting thumped solidly at Philadelphia on Christmas Day. But the Atlanta Hawks have lost eight straight and are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Atlanta has lost by an average of 13.0 points during their losing streak.
The teams have met twice already this season, with the Hawks covering an 11-point spread in a 135-127 loss at State Farm Arena on Nov. 20 and covering as 14½-point road underdogs in a 111-102 loss at Milwaukee seven days later. The Bucks are 9-1 against Atlanta in their last 10 meetings … but the Hawks have gotten the cover in seven of those 10 games.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (minus 5)
TV: Fox Sports Indiana (Pacers), Fox Sports Sun (Heat)
Tickets: AmericanAirlines Arena, 8 p.m. local
Records: Indiana 21-10 (16-12-3 ATS, 7-7 road ATS), Miami 22-8 (19-10-1 ATS, 11-3 home ATS)
Availability report
Indiana: OUT–Brian Bowen (two-way, G League), Naz Mitrou-Long (two-way, G League), Victor Oladipo (right knee rehab); QUESTIONABLE–Malcolm Brogdon (sore left hamstring).
Miami: OUT–Daryl Macon (two-way, G League), KZ Okpala (G League), Justise Winslow (lower back, bone bruise).
Notable: These teams are almost mirror images over their last 10 games, with the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat each going 7-3 overall and 5-5 ATS. But while the Heat a 3-3 ATS at home, the Pacers are 1-3 ATS on the road over that stretch and Malcolm Brogdon is a game-time call for Indiana because of a sore hamstring.
It’s the first meeting of the year between the Pacers and Miami and with so many changes on both rosters from last season, Indiana’s 3-0 mark straight up and ATS over the teams’ last three games may not hold as much weight as it might had there been more offseason continuity. Over their last seven games each, both Indiana and the Heat are 5-2 ATS. Flip that coin, folks.