The Milwaukee Bucks have the NBA’s best record at 27-4 and the NBA odds are giving us a gift, making the Bucks just 3-point favorite on Christmas.
With five games on what is considered the unofficial start of the regular season in the NBA, there is already a shiny gift under the proverbial Christmas tree. Those who set the NBA odds have given us the Milwaukee Bucks — at an NBA-best 27-4 overall and 12-2 on the road — as just three-point favorites for their Christmas Day meeting with the Philadelphia 76ers.
That figure comes courtesy of The Action Network and is way too good to pass up.
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These teams haven’t met since April, but the Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and have three consecutive covers on the road. Philadelphia is only 2-4 ATS over its last six games and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven at Wells Fargo Center.
So this sets up as some pretty easy pickings (insert warning about things appearing too good to be true).
Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against the 76ers and have covered (and won straight up) two of the last three. Philadelphia opened the season with 15 straight wins at home before dropping consecutive games to the Heat and Mavericks last week. The 76ers’ fix for the problem came in the form of a visit from the battered Wizards on Saturday.
But when you can get the best team in the NBA with a one-possession spread? You jump all over it like kids sprinting to see what’s under the tree on Christmas morning.
Milwaukee Bucks (minus 3) at Philadelphia 76ers
TV: ABC (national)
Tickets: Wells Fargo Center, 2:30 p.m. Eastern
Records: Milwaukee 27-4 (18-13 ATS, 8-6 road ATS), Philadelphia 22-10 (15-16-1 ATS, 8-8-1 home ATS)
Availability report (taken from information released as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday)
Milwaukee: OUT–Dragan Bender (right ankle sprain), Eric Bledsoe (right fibula, avulsion fracture).
Philadelphia: OUT–Matisse Thybulle (right knee sprain/bone bruise).
As for the rest of the NBA’s Christmas Day slate:
Boston Celtics (minus 3) at Toronto Raptors
TV: NBC Sports Boston (Celtics), SportsNet 1/East/Ontario/West/Pacific (Raptors), ESPN (national)
Tickets: Scotiabank Arena, noon Eastern
Records: Boston 20-7 (17-8-2 ATS, 8-5-1 road ATS), Toronto 21-9 (16-12-1 ATS, 10-5 home ATS)
Availability report
Boston: OUT–Tacko Fall (two-way, G League), Vincent Poirier (right pinkie fracture), Marcus Smart (left eye infection), Robert Williams (left hip, bone edema); PROBABLE–Gordon Hayward (left foot soreness).
Toronto: OUT–Marc Gasol (left hamstring strain), Dewan Hernandez (right ankle sprain), Shamorie Ponds (two-way, G League), Norman Powell (left shoulder subluxation), Pascal Siakam (groin strain), Matt Thomas (left middle finger fracture).
Notable: The Boston Celtics, despite being without defensive anchor Marcus Smart the last six games due to an infection in his left eye, have gone 7-2 ATS over their last nine games and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. But the short-handed Toronto Raptors have also been going strong, with a 5-1 ATS record over their last six games that includes three straight home covers.
The Celtics got the win and covered a 2½-point spread the first time these teams met, on Oct. 25 in Boston, but the Cs have failed to cover eight straight times at Toronto. In the last three meetings between the teams, it’s been home teams all the way, with Boston winning and covering both of the games played in their arena and the Raptors taking the one at Scotiabank Arena.
Houston Rockets (minus 11) at Golden State Warriors
TV: ABC (national)
Tickets: Chase Center, 5 p.m. Eastern (2 p.m. local)
Records: Houston 21-9 (15-15 ATS, 9-7 road ATS), Golden State 7-24 (14-16-1 ATS, 6-7-1 home ATS)
Availability report
Houston: OUT–Eric Gordon (right knee arthroscopy), Gerald Green (left cuneiform fracture), Nene (left adductor strain); DOUBTFUL–Thabo Sefolosha (illness).
Golden State: OUT–Ky Bowman (two-way, G League), Stephen Curry (left hand fracture), Kevon Looney (left abdominal soreness), Klay Thompson (left ACL rehabilitation); PROBABLE–Glenn Robinson III (right ankle sprain).
Notable: It’s another chance for the Houston Rockets to take out some frustration — this time in front of a national audience — against the Golden State Warriors, who have eliminated the Rockets from the playoffs four of the last five seasons. Houston comes in 4-2 ATS in its last six games and winners of six of seven straight up.
The Warriors are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 and have only covered twice in their last five games at Chase Center. These teams have met once this season, with the Rockets winning and covering a 16-point spread at home in a 129-112 victory. That’s not a complete surprise; Houston has covered four of its last five games against Golden State.
LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (minus 1½)
TV: ESPN/ABC (national)
Tickets: Staples Center, 8 p.m. Eastern (5 p.m. local)
Records: Clippers 22-10 (17-14 ATS, 7-9 road ATS), Lakers 24-6 (16-13 ATS, 8-5 home ATS)
Availability report
Clippers: All players available.
Lakers: OUT–Kostas Antetokounmpo (two-way, G League), Devontae Cacok (two-way, G League), DeMarcus Cousins (right knee rehabilitation); QUESTIONABLE–Anthony Davis (right knee soreness), LeBron James (thoracic muscle strain); PROBABLE–Kyle Kuzma (left ankle sprain).
Notable: The Los Angeles Lakers are on their worst slide of the season, dropping their last three games straight up and going 0-5 ATS over their last five games. The LA Clippers are 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games, but just 2-3 ATS over their last five. It’s also hard to glean a lot from the home/road splits as both teams call Staples Center home.
This is the second of their four meetings this season, with the Clippers drawing first blood on opening night with a 112-102 “road” win as 3½-point underdogs. The complexion of this game gets very different as well if Anthony Davis and/or LeBron James are unavailable. James missed his first game this year on Sunday and the Lakers took their worst loss of the season.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets (minus 9½)
TV: Fox Sports New Orleans (Pelicans), Altitude Sports (Nuggets), ESPN (national)
Tickets: Pepsi Center, 10:30 p.m. Eastern (8:30 p.m. local)
Records: New Orleans 8-23 (11-18-1 ATS, 5-9-1 road ATS), Denver 21-8 (13-14-2 ATS, 7-8-1 home ATS)
Availability report
New Orleans: OUT–Zylan Cheatham (two-way, G League), Josh Gray (two-way, G League), Darius Miller (right Achilles surgery), Zion Williamson (right knee scope).
Denver: OUT–Bol Bol (left foot injury management), PJ Dozier (two-way, G League).
Notable: The Denver Nuggets are on a roll right now, winning seven in a row SU and going 4-2-1 ATS over that span. The New Orleans Pelicans are mostly just getting rolled, going 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games, but they all three of those have come on the road.
While the Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five with New Orleans at home, the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Denver. The teams met in New Orleans on Oct. 31, with the Pelicans drumming the Nuggets 122-107 as four-point underdogs. In the last three meetings between the teams, New Orleans is 2-1 SU and has covered in all three games.